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Posted on 08/28/2019 1:34:36 PM PDT by NautiNurse
Hurricane Dorian battered St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, and brushing Puerto Rico. Taking aim at the Florida Atlantic Coastline, Hurricane Dorian is projected to be a major hurricane (Category 3) at landfall.
Satellite Imagery Dorian
NHC Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
Florida Radar Loop (with storm track overlay)
Buoy Data with Storm Track overlay
The current Windy model shows it taking 4 days to exit Alabama.
We absolutely without a doubt must quickly
solve this problem once and for all just
Watch the media turn this into a global warming story even though the last week of August and first week of September are the most active weeks in hurricane season.
Well that was depressing! An intense and extreme storm..... “ugh” is right.
‘one never really knows where these hurricanes will eventually make landfall until they actually make landfall”
Especially those who evacuated The Keys to Homestead prior to Andrew!
Good to see you at the Helm, appreciate all the updates Prayers for all in Danger.
It must be stressed that there is only a vague indication of what parts of Florida are under high risk with this storm. The latest GFS model guidance (leading U.S. model) shows a landfall in northeast FL around Daytona Beach with a slow northward push over land into Georgia. This would be a high impact scenario for the JAX region.
But the latest European model guidance is considerably further south with landfall around Fort Lauderdale or West Palm Beach and slow northward motion over land through all of central FL. The Canadian model is closer to the Euro than the GFS, landfall approximately Jupiter or Vero Beach area, high impact later around Orlando.
The one general theme overnight is to lessen the chances of a second landfall on the Gulf coast, almost all guidance now shows Dorian inland over the southeast then in some cases near the coast of the Carolinas after several days, probably at tropical storm intensity due to the long stay over land.
As the NHC cone suggests, all of Florida is at some risk from Dorian. As to intensity, with the track being all over warm water from now to Florida and Bahamas not having much if any disruptive influence, cannot rule out any intensity although cat-3 seems most likely from historical analogues.
I would expect a little better consensus on landfall location and timing by about Friday night or Saturday morning. The current spread and uncertainty is caused by a rather weak set of steering currents coming into play by Monday-Tuesday over the southeastern U.S., and in fact some model guidance suggests a very slow-moving storm that might be impacting given locations for 24-36 hours.
Also note that storm surge potential is high with new moon timed for early this weekend.
Thank-you for your help NN. God Bless.
If this has not yet been posted, there’s a great collection of info. here:
http://trackthetropics.com/dorian-2019/
Trying to do some street analysis here using Andrew data on excel. https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_pages/andrew1992/index.html (flight level data -> position vs time)
So Andrew hit Miami while it started 10 degree more north than Dorian, but Andrew was slower, thus its trajectory flatter.
Hurricanes tend to speed up going flat westard and then move up north and start slowing down because of corriolis. That results in a flattening of their trajectory back towards a more westward path which tends to reaccelerate then.
Dorian is at 11 mph northwestard, Andrew was at 8-9 its most westwardly and 6 Northwestwarly.
So Dorian displaces almost twice as fast as Andrew. THat means it will overshoot most likely the ANdrew path Northward and hit north of Andrew. It will start flattening out West north West maybe at the level of Miami when Andrew was going full West and even a bit South.
My bet is that it will accelerate Westward and hit Cap Canaveral instead of going to Jacksonville.
So I say 10% it hits just North of Miami , 90% between Cap Canaveral and Jacksonville, betting 50% Cap Canaveral to Daytona and 40% Daytona-Jacksonville.
Make your bets
WHich was the better models in the past? Euro or US?
I am currently betting on the Euro model right now.
Actually I would say 50% West palm Beach to cap CAnaveral and 40% Cap Canaveral to Jacksonville. 10% South of west palm beach
has Georgia ever taken a direct hit since 1900?....all i could find was 1898.
I’m thinking between the Cape and Melbourne, Monday afternoon/evening. Just hoping it stays small (ish).
Glad you’re safe in PR!
Yes, mostly. He is very good.
He does occasionally make mistakes. Last winter, he predicted a huge and prolonged severe cold spell for the mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions of the United States.
He was consistently calling for that for weeks, and then it just didn't happen. He said during one of his updates that he got a lot of flack about it. But I would say Bastardi is one of the best meteorologists out there.
Also, if it keeps moving at 13 knots its across the state in 10-12 hours other than a diagonal move which I don't see forecast.
Entering the Gulf it could very well reform with some really warm water helping the cause.But I think a 15 mile from center damage zone is a very lucky scenario for much of the State of Fla.
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