Posted on 08/22/2019 7:50:04 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
yep, Europe is in the throngs of a severe slowdown.
And they are really just at the start of the downturn with a lot of the really bad pain still to come (given that Germany just entered recession). The canary in coalmine were the PIGS a few years ago. Germany is beholden to Greek debt. IF they default - Germany is in SERIOUS trouble. Now Germany is issuing 30 year NEGATIVE interest rate bonds.
And China is falling apart as well. The numbers they are reporting are pretty bad - so just imagine what it ACTUALLY is (because of course, they are lying about it).
People need to understand we are a global economy and our manufacturing sends out over a $trillion in goods worldwide. When there is a global slowdown, there is a decrease in demand. Job numbers are a lagging indicator because people are basically GOOD and don't want to lay, people, off...but they stop producing things (or slow down producing things) long before they start to lay people off). It's economics 101.
>>>Call me crazy, but how do tariffs, which are designed to PROTECT American manufacturing jobs, cause a slow-down in manufacturing?
Most of the tariffs on Chinese goods were on intermediate goods. Who imports intermediate goods? US manufacturers.
For one thing, the tariffs aren’t on all foreign goods. As a result of the China tariffs US importers are sourcing from other low-cost countries like Vietnam.
At the same time, in retaliation China cuts back on imports from the US.
Result? Bigger trade deficit and lower manufacturing.
As someone mentioned, there’s also a global economic slowdown reducing demand.
You need to get better sources. In 2018 we exported 1.6T and imported 2.5T a defecit of $900B annually.
GDP From Manufacturing in the United States is $8.6 Trillion. Using your dubious $1T annual manufacturing export figure, as percent off total USA manufacturing 1/8 = 12.5%. So for example, a "slowdown of 2%" in world demand would only be 3% of TOTAL manufacturing. A 2% loss in manufacturing demand as a percent of total GDP would be $30B/$22T = .02%!!! IT DOESN'T EVEN MOVE THE NEEDLE.
Not a big risk.
So a hit piece on Trump written by someone with a Chinese name and almost no personal background information available on the web.
Yeah, take this post with a HUGH grain of salt!
So what is it slower growth and signaling a contraction—or an actual contraction?
RE: So a hit piece on Trump written by someone with a Chinese name and almost no personal background information available on the web.
Now, let’s not overdo this “They are attacking Trump” thing in a purely business report.
The only way it can be seen as an attack on Trump is to show how the figures cited in this report are inaccurate or false.
When derivatives start to go it becomes a chain reaction, like a nuclear detonation, and it can’t be stopped until the explosion occurs.
“U.S. Manufacturing sector contracts for the first time in nearly a decade”
slowing growth is NOT a “contraction” ...
“Nobody here should be surprised by this. If the U.S. economy was as strong as we’ve made it out to be, you wouldn’t see the President running around calling for cuts in interest rates that are already at or near historic lows.”
Trump wants the interest rate cuts because the whole world has been buying U.S. dollars since it’s the safest currency in the world, thereby making the dollar overly strong and hurting our ability to export ... lower rates would help to slightly weaken the dollar and improve our export capability ...
And it does move the needle when you talk about a global recession - and you put China and Europe in the mix.
Don’t just look at the Federal Reserve rates here. While the Fed has been raising rates, U.S. Treasury rates have actually FALLEN. That’s important because it’s U.S. Treasury rates that are the benchmark for major credit markets like the mortgage industry.
From the report:
"Manufacturing had been one of the big winners during the Trump administration, but the tit-for-tat tariffs in the U.S.-China trade war have taken a big bite from the sector."
Hmmmm...no bias there...
IHS Markit.
Consider the source, folks....
Enough said!
That's their standard dodge when reporting good news, blending in the no-growth obama years to soften his image.
“I’m sure there is more. “
Yeh...I am sure the dems have dozens of women going thru ‘mental hospitals’ searching for those gals who remember getting raped by POTUS...They’ll all speak up months b4 the election...
RE: Consider the source, folks....
Actually, if you read the article, the source is not IHS Markit. They were simply taking their data from the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is an index of the prevailing direction of economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors.
The PMI is compiled and released monthly by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The PMI is based on a monthly survey sent to senior executives at more than 400 companies in 19 primary industries, which are weighted by their contribution to U.S. GDP.
*THAT* is the source.
Now, if you doubt the accuracy of this source, maybe you can provide us with a better indicator of manufacturing direction...
A large percentage of manufacturers in the USA use parts or equipment manufactured in China to make finished goods here. It would be a miracle if the tariffs had no short-term negative effect.
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