Posted on 08/22/2019 4:46:21 AM PDT by Kaslin
What factors usually re-elect or throw out incumbent presidents?
The economy counts most.
Recessions, or at least chronic economic pessimism, sink incumbents. Presidents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush were tagged with sluggish growth, high unemployment and a sense of perceived stagnation -- and were easily defeated.
The 2008 financial crisis likely ended any chance for John McCain to continue eight years of Republican rule. Barack Obama campaigned on the message that incumbent George W. Bush was to blame for the meltdown and that McCain, his potential Republican successor, would be even worse.
A once-unpopular incumbent Ronald Reagan fought recession for three years. Yet he soared to a landslide victory in 1984 only after the gross domestic product suddenly took off at an annualized clip of over 7 percent prior to the election.
President Donald Trump's economy is still booming. But his opponents here and abroad are counting on a recession to derail him.
They hope that either the good times can't last forever or that Trump's trade war with China will scare investors and businesspeople into retrenchment. Or perhaps massive annual deficits and staggering debt will finally catch up to a financially reckless government.
China will do all it can to prompt a U.S. downturn before November 2020 in hopes that it can get a better deal from a new Democratic president.
Unpopular optional wars are just as lethal to incumbents. Vietnam ended any chance of Lyndon Johnson seeking re-election. Iraq sank the second term of George W. Bush and almost cost him his 2004 re-election bid. The Benghazi fiasco, the collapse of Iraq and the rise of ISIS during Obama's first term all made 2012 a far closer race than expected.
(Excerpt) Read more at townhall.com ...
He almost sunk them with gun control. Luckily, he got wise in time.
The economy counts most.
Yup. When people see their paycheck not going as far (or not seeing a paycheck at all), or when their retirement accounts dwindle due to market instability, people generally panic regarding politics.
Trump would be the clear choice to lead a fix over such a situation, but there are far too many ignoramuses out there.
I don't think he has a chance...
he should stick to singing
Here in Pennsylvania there is a proposal in Harrisburg to eliminate property taxes.
Of course it would do that not by cutting spending, but by raising just about every other conceivable tax. This would include (for the first time) imposing income taxes on retirement income.
THAT is a non-starter. The elder population would march on Harrisburg and burn the State Capitol to the ground.
“Presidents Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush were tagged with sluggish growth, high unemployment and a sense of perceived stagnation — and were easily defeated.”
Nope. The 1991 recession was one of the shortest in history. GHW Bush lost because he reneged on his ‘no new taxes, read my lips’ promise and H Ross Perot came in as a 3rd party and took 15% of the Republication vote. Clinton won with about 40% of the vote.
I remember 1992 clearly. It was the first time I was sure the media was biased against Republicans.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.