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Will 2020 be a Repeat of 2004 for Democrats?
Townhall.com ^ | August 8, 2019 | Victor Davis Hanson

Posted on 08/08/2019 4:35:15 AM PDT by Kaslin

Democrats by 2004 had become obsessed with defeating incumbent President George W. Bush.

Four years earlier, in the 2000 election, Bush had won the Electoral College but lost the popular vote. Democrats were still furious that Bush supposedly had been "selected" by the Supreme Court over the contested vote tally in Florida rather than "elected" by the majority of voters.

By late 2003, Bush's popularity had dipped over the unpopular Iraq War, which a majority in both houses of Congress approved but had since disowned.

Bush was attacked nonstop as a Nazi, fascist, and war criminal. "Bush lied, people died" was the new left-wing mantra.

Talk of Bush's impeachment was in the air. Democrats remembered that his father, George H.W. Bush, lost his re-election bid in 1992. They hoped the same fate awaited his son.

Neither presidential candidate Al Gore nor vice-presidential candidate Joe Lieberman from the defeated 2000 ticket wanted to run again in 2004. Sen. John Edwards was a charismatic newcomer candidate, but he was increasingly proving to be a smarmy empty suit.

Oddly, none of the Democrats wished to identify with the last successful liberal president, two-term Bill Clinton, or his policies. In 2000, Gore also ran away from the president under whom he had served as vice president — and lost.

Within that void, little-known Vermont Gov. Howard Dean announced early on that he was running. And for most of 2003, according to polls, Dean was the front-runner of the Democratic primary field.

(Excerpt) Read more at townhall.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial
KEYWORDS: democrats; election; johnkerry
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To: Jim Noble

There is supposed to be a meeting at the White House about the tech giants and what to do with them.


41 posted on 08/08/2019 6:25:26 AM PDT by Biggirl ("One Lord, one faith, one baptism" - Ephesians 4:5)
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To: Kaslin
Despite the application of modern computers, politics much less electioneering is still more of an art than a science. Other articles have addressed this art by comparing the upcoming election to the 1984 election in which Reagan trounced Mondale. In '84 Mondale ran well to the left and lost every state but one and that narrowly. Mondale sealed his own defeat when he promised to raise taxes.

I joined the fray some time ago by comparing the upcoming election to the 1964 election in which Lyndon Johnson and his henchmen in the media marginalized Barry Goldwater as an extremist who was likely to blow up the world. For good measure Barry Goldwater was also painted as a racist. The end result was inevitable, a historic landslide for Johnson sealed by Goldwater himself who declared “Extremism in defense of liberty is no vice. Moderation in pursuit of justice is no virtue.” It is notable that in these two elections the losing candidates obliged their opponents with what amounted to their epitaphs.

The upcoming 2020 election appears to be a foot race between Donald Trump the "racist" and Donald Trump riding a phenomenal economy to victory. No president in modern times has failed to be reelected with an economy this good.

But this is not November 2020 and the economy has plenty of time to reverse course. In my view, Donald Trump is demonstrating great personal political courage in waging his tariff war with China because he must know that he risks a severe economic downturn and with it his reelection. Meanwhile, rather than sinking the United States in a quagmire in Iraq, Trump is extracting us from Afghanistan, limiting our exposure in Iraq, being filmed crossing the DMZ in North Korea and negotiating with China. In short the visuals confirm, Trump is looking very presidential abroad.

No quagmire abroad, a warm if not a hot economy at home, the Democrats are left with no attack point except to shout, "racist." If they make it stick, Trump looks like Goldwater. If the economy holds and they don't make it stick as they have failed to stop Trump in the electoral college, with the Russia hoax, with the 25th amendment, or with impeachment, Trump looks more like Reagan in '84 and Johnson in '64.

If the economy slips, if China penetrates the American political scene and turns Midwestern Republicans against Trump, his surest path to reelection might be blocked. If domestic Democrats with their henchmen in the media can ride the extremist argument, obliged perhaps by incautious tweets or remarks by the President, he might look like Goldwater in '64.


42 posted on 08/08/2019 6:29:13 AM PDT by nathanbedford (attack, repeat, attack! Bull Halsey)
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To: dp0622

Corporate media has long claimed to be able to swing 15% of the total vote, and it is quite a credible claim.


43 posted on 08/08/2019 6:29:54 AM PDT by thoughtomator (... this has made a lot of people very angry and been widely regarded as a bad move.)
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To: DoodleDawg

“And if the Democrats win will the Trump base accept it as a legitimate win?”

I’m afraid both sides are beyond that now, unfortunately.


44 posted on 08/08/2019 6:41:44 AM PDT by moovova
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To: Kaslin

In one breath the democrats are making a case that Trump is an unstable miscreant that must be replaced.

Ok, but in their next breath they argue the answer is to replace him with one of a cast of miscreants, each crazier than the next.

Hence the rush to Biden by the rational (if there are any) heads in the DNC as the “palatable” alternative. But they are deluding themselves if they think he is palatable.


45 posted on 08/08/2019 6:56:15 AM PDT by FlipWilson
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To: moovova
I’m afraid both sides are beyond that now, unfortunately.

I agree.

46 posted on 08/08/2019 7:01:18 AM PDT by DoodleDawg
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To: Kaslin
Democrats by 2004 had become obsessed with defeating incumbent President George W. Bush.

The 2020 obsession is light years ahead of the 2004 version. In 2004, Democrats at least had to adhere to reality, and had to hide their racism and their violent ideals. Today, they literally make fantasy snuff films about murdering voters.

47 posted on 08/08/2019 7:04:06 AM PDT by Teacher317 (We have now sunk to a depth at which restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men)
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To: Biggirl
The reality it will be like the 1984 landslide win of Ronald Reagan

I hope so, but I'm haunted by the phrase: "Sometimes, the dragon wins."

48 posted on 08/08/2019 7:05:53 AM PDT by Teacher317 (We have now sunk to a depth at which restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men)
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To: Teacher317

I am not.

The dragon wins if you LET it win. I have learned to fight back.


49 posted on 08/08/2019 8:40:24 AM PDT by Biggirl ("One Lord, one faith, one baptism" - Ephesians 4:5)
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To: Kaslin

“They warned of a landslide loss similar to the one Democrats suffered in 1972, when the party had foolishly nominated the ultra-liberal George McGovern.”

I don’t remember a discouraging word being said about or among Democrats during that campaign. I remember Kerry dressing up like a condom and Free Republic saving Bush from the last minute Rather/Mapes smear.

Funny what memory does.


50 posted on 08/08/2019 9:41:55 AM PDT by Luke21 (Vote, vote, vote doesn't work, work, work.)
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To: Mr. K

Bergland was the Libertarian nominee.


51 posted on 08/08/2019 12:31:48 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Who will think of the gerbils ? Just say no to Buttgiggity !)
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To: nathanbedford

I live in the Midwest.

First of all, great analysis. I agree on many points.

Trump is in danger of losing the midwest. Bad weather, lower prices, and now the biggest market closed to us (and South America has more than enough to fill China’s needs), and many farmers are looking at bankruptcy. The Dem candidates are all over Iowa promising the moon, but most farmers are not biting. However between the gun control push, the loss of livelihood, and the only source of labor available in fear of being deported, Trumps support is not as high as many here believe.

Simply put, I fear many farmers are going to stay home in 2020, or be in another state because they lost their jobs and farms. Couple that with the mass shootings in purple states pushing them blue, and Trump has a high hill to climb.

Not impossible, and over a year away, but if the economy tanks and the GOP passes gun control, well I will have a hard time holding my nose to vote for them again.


52 posted on 08/10/2019 6:05:48 PM PDT by redgolum (If this culture today is civilization, I will be the barbarian.)
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To: redgolum

Agriculture is less than 1% of the economy. He needs to appeal to a much LARGE constituency, blue collar WORKERS not tractor monkeys. The tariff is VERY popular in the rust belt and the south both devastated by “free trade”.


53 posted on 08/10/2019 6:10:59 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: Sacajaweau
Here's my suggestion to Republicans...refrain from early voting, absentee voting of any kind. That takes away the opportunity to throw your vote to the wind.

Bad idea. Heavy turnout and a Trump lead will build morale.

54 posted on 08/10/2019 6:13:55 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: Kaslin

and like 1972, and like 1984

themes of Law & Order, Silent Majority,


55 posted on 08/10/2019 6:15:43 PM PDT by truth_seeker ( ^^\/**|_|**\/ ^^^^)
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To: gundog
There will be anti-Trump enthusiasm. In spades.

And there wasn't that in 2016?

56 posted on 08/10/2019 6:16:09 PM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn.)
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To: central_va

Indirect Ag is bigger than that.

The commodities markets are acting like a big drop is coming. Prices are very soft.

It isn’t just the farmers (1% is close I think, but am correctable), but the fertilizer companies (which make a lot of pharma too), heavy equipment makers, car makers, CBOT, and the oil companies.

Many of those blue collar monkies are starting to feel the pinch. Hiring is slowing down, and companies are looking to limit payroll. Inventories are WAY up, and not moving.


57 posted on 08/10/2019 6:25:16 PM PDT by redgolum (If this culture today is civilization, I will be the barbarian.)
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To: central_va

Yes, but most thought that he would lose. It may have affected Dem turnout. Not so, in 2020.


58 posted on 08/10/2019 6:38:36 PM PDT by gundog ( Hail to the Chief, bitches!)
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To: gundog

The Dems HATE Trump. They will turn out in huge numbers in the swing states. A lot of them were so certain the she hag was going to win they did not bother to vote. Next year will be different. I would not be surprised if the GOPe in concert with some of the Dems do not run a Perot type candidate. If Trump does something stupid and sign in red flag laws or heaven forbid signs AWB.2 into law a TON of his supporters will vanish. Lots of his gun base are pissed due to the bump stock ban.


59 posted on 08/10/2019 6:50:23 PM PDT by JayElBee (Time to rethink the Great Society)
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To: JayElBee

I spent the afternoon at a pro-2A rally Local Antifa had a presence. Pathetic bunch. The Portland rally next weekend should rock.

I see this shaping up as a 1972 type election....law and order versus commie craziness. Sadly, there’s a lot more crazy commies these days.


60 posted on 08/10/2019 6:57:59 PM PDT by gundog ( Hail to the Chief, bitches!)
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