Posted on 08/07/2019 5:15:05 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
In the US-China trade war, it's been a week of rapid escalation. Beijing devalued the yuan after the Trump administration threatened to slap tariffs on just about every Chinese export. The United States then labeled China a "currency manipulator," deepening the rift.
The exchanges have rocked global markets and threaten the global economy. What happens next is anyone's guess.
China has said it is prepared to fight, if necessary. And it has one hugely powerful weapon up its sleeve: it's the American government's biggest creditor. In theory, Beijing could trigger a panic in bond markets by dumping some of the $1.1 trillion in US Treasuries that it owns.
By releasing a flood of US Treasuries, the price would collapse, sending yields (or interest rates) soaring and causing American borrowing costs to rocket. But there are very good reasons why China is unlikely ever to pull the trigger. First, it may not have the desired effect. Second, it could backfire badly on its own economy.
"It's likely not the most effective tool available," said Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former US Treasury economist.
China has taken steps in recent days to prop up the yuan, signaling that the depreciation was intended as a warning sign. But President Donald Trump could still hit back, even as the administration sticks to its plan for more trade talks in September.
It's a combustible situation that's ripe for further escalation. That's where concern about China's holdings of US bonds comes in.
If China really wants to rattle the United States, the thinking goes, it could trash the value of US Treasuries by pushing them into the market.
That would cause yields to spike. And since Treasury yields serve as a benchmark for business and consumer credit,
(Excerpt) Read more at cnn.com ...
The Chinese are fighting for the ability to keep stealing from us.
They want to remain current with new emerging technologies and that’s the only way they are going to keep up.
Ha!
The saying I’ve heard over the years is as follows....
If you owe the bank $100,000, you have a problem.
If you owe the bank $100 million, the bank has a problem.
Save wavelength, just greater amounts.
They will likely do this before the 2020 election.
They are buying Gold — the best and smart thing to do.
Oh, was talking about this Julie chick? I believe I was.
The democrats/socialist of the world, and believe this is a world wide fight our President Trump is in, do not want to give POTUS a win in anything that will help his reelection in 2020. They will fight tooth and nail to stop anything of any value to the USA. Look at immigration reform that did not happen
..and then there is Hong Kong / Taiwan / South and East China sea disputes. I often wonder how the whole debt thing would play out if we were to go to war with China.
Bingo! For China, there is no credible alternative to holding US Treasuries.
“” “” If you owe the bank $10 million dollars and you can’t pay, the bank is in trouble.
We owe the Chinese a lot of money. They own a lot of property here. We could nationalize all of it.”” “”
LOL. To nationalize property sounds like so conservative of you.
They don’t really have to devalue their currency - or not do it very steeply. They can subsidize their domestic producers to reduce costs to cover some or all of the financial impact of tariffs.
We owe them a lot of money, but we can print as much of it as we want. Sure, that has repercussions but in proportion it is about 25% of our annual federal budget and 5% of our stated debt.
They only get ONE shot to use it. And when/IF they do, it will destroy their economy, which is already showing signs of trouble. I say, let’s see what ya got.
It would be a desperate move by China. China would lose considerable value by dumping the bonds, and for the right price, there would be plenty of buyers.
Might be a short term problem, maybe for a few months, but a long term benefit for the U.S. and the investors buying the heavily discounted bonds.
Which is why Congress shouldn’t spend, spend, spend and raise the debt ceiling willy nilly. We seriously need to pay down our debt. As it is, China and whomever else we owe, own us.
“” “” It would be a desperate move by China. China would lose considerable value by dumping the bonds, and for the right price, there would be plenty of buyers.”” “”
Who said the ‘right price’? Trade wars aren’t about the right price.
The US declared Japan to be a currency manipulator just before Pearl Harbor.
I would think that China would dump their U.S. treasuries just ahead of attacking Taiwan. Taiwan is certainly worth a whole lot more than a trillion. They would probably do this when/if Russia and Iran creates problems in the ME.
China could be calculating that they could make war work. The Prussians did this in 1870 against France and got Alsace Lorrain. Britain just watched and no one did anything at the time.
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