Posted on 07/18/2019 5:00:18 PM PDT by nwrep
Rachel Bitecofer, the assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Virginia’s Christopher Newport University, created a unique prediction model that almost perfectly foretold in July 2018 the results of the 2018 midterm election. (The model concluded the Democrats would pick up 42 House seats; the Dems gained 40 seats.)
Bitecofer’s model has concluded that it matters not who the Democratic presidential nominee is -- “unless it ends up being a disruptor like Bernie Sanders.” Whoever wins the Democratic nomination -- other than possibly Bernie, that is -- will defeat Trump in the general election.
The only unexpected factors that might make Bitecofer revisit her Trump-loses prediction: the launch of a well-funded independent campaign by someone like Howard Schultz, the sudden onset of an economic recession, a war with Iran or a large-scale terrorist attack. “Otherwise,” she says, “the country’s hyper-partisan and polarized environment has largely set the conditions of the 2020 election in stone.”
“The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president,” she writes, “has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced he’s the Terminator and can’t be stopped. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything.”
A poll 16 months before the election is useless, particularly a push-poll meant to discourage me.
funny thing- i did a search but nowhere did i see where these people predicted the outcome of the senate races in 2018...
Read the entire study. She was correct. Dismiss it at your peril.
This trash was posted weeks ago and is just being recycled. There is no need to keep reposting it.
They weren’t 100% correct. They just did very well in one mid-term race.
There will be the inevitable excuse why they were wrong in 2020.
Because....
Trump 2020~
Can anyone say, "UBER LIBERAL RAG!"
I think it has been proven mathematically that Perot made no difference.
Yep! It's over... Might as well turn in our jocks and guns and pack up... How do we apply for asylum to South Africa?
Most people predicted 2018. Now, if she had predicted 2016, I’d sit up and listen.
Fraud by Soros but also China. Illegals, election machines.
If they target the swing states this time with heavy fraud it will be tough.
Right. Nate Silver was their hero for correctly predicting the 2012 election, but you barely hear about him after his failure in 2016
Would she be willing to wager all of her savings on her prediction?
I’d like to see that math. I am just going from memory here, but Perot pulled something around 20% in ‘92. Clinton did not get a majority (50%+1) in either election. It is possible to come up with a statistical model that would say 25% of Perot voters might have gone with Clinton but I am not sure how accurate that could really be. This is just my opinion but Perot’s economic message appealed to Republicans - the type that would eventually become Tea Partiers but this is just my opinion.
Your strong suit has always been believing in the improbable, if not the, impossible...
Does it take the voter fraud of 2018 into account?
California “tested” the ballot harvesting scheme at the last election, and it worked out excellent for them. It will now become even more wide spread if something isn’t done. Either it needs to be outlawed in it’s entirety....or two can play “the game” and conservatives go hog wild with it.
IMHO, when the polls close, that’s it...no more...game over.
If they can’t carry their sorry lib azzes to the polls on time, screw em.
Interesting theories.. Though this is like climate models, how do you explain existing results?
California knew Hillary was going to win. I mean, really, really sure. Before polls closed in California, everyone was still predicting a landslide victory for Hillary.
So if people were simply complacent, and didn’t vote for It’s Her Turn, as this model predicts, then how does it explain the nearly 9 million votes for Hillary (a gain of nearly a million vs Obama’s reelection.)
Until the author waives the magic wand and explains that, I’m going to absolutely be sure that the model is entirely correct, and there’s no way in the world that Trump will win re-election (unless it’s Bernie or someone like that...)
‘cause believing in shills is the American way!
But, as it really is....I want to grind them into their pain.
I imagine grinding and crunching Antifa freak teeth against a street side curb.
Didn’t help.
This imaginary stuff won’t do.
Christopher Newport is aligned to William and Mary. It was in Newport News, VA. as far back as 1966. I had never heard anti war crap until my first semester by a punk grad student. He assigned us to write either a pro Vietnam or anti Vietnam War paper. Those who were pro received F’s. That was how I was drafted and went to OCS. This college is as liberal as they come.
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