Posted on 07/18/2019 5:00:18 PM PDT by nwrep
Rachel Bitecofer, the assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Virginia’s Christopher Newport University, created a unique prediction model that almost perfectly foretold in July 2018 the results of the 2018 midterm election. (The model concluded the Democrats would pick up 42 House seats; the Dems gained 40 seats.)
Bitecofer’s model has concluded that it matters not who the Democratic presidential nominee is -- “unless it ends up being a disruptor like Bernie Sanders.” Whoever wins the Democratic nomination -- other than possibly Bernie, that is -- will defeat Trump in the general election.
The only unexpected factors that might make Bitecofer revisit her Trump-loses prediction: the launch of a well-funded independent campaign by someone like Howard Schultz, the sudden onset of an economic recession, a war with Iran or a large-scale terrorist attack. “Otherwise,” she says, “the country’s hyper-partisan and polarized environment has largely set the conditions of the 2020 election in stone.”
“The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president,” she writes, “has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020, who are convinced he’s the Terminator and can’t be stopped. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything.”
If you think the electorate is terrified now, wait until they figure out that the tax cuts would go away if the House didn’t renew them in 2021 . . .
And how many of those seats flipped? I think it was a handful at best.
Over a lot of the past 44 years, the GOP hardly had that many seats to lose. As it were.
I have to look at each one to see.
That all you got?
You trolls used to be so much more entertaining back in the old days.
Sorry! I dont waste time with ignorant or stupid folks
Ignorant or stupid?
Ha!
I’m not the one with a “political science” background.
A degree in Political Science is so easy, even barack obama can get one. ROFLMAO!
Ok ill match my degrees against yours. I dont think it will be much of a contest frankly. Only morons challenge people without knowing their background or experience.
ROFLMAO.
Go flip some burgers.
Bitecofer’s model has a problem.
Bernie isn’t the only “disruptor”. Every candidate on the democrat ticket is a “disruptor”.
The only way Trump loses is if voter fraud is greater than it has ever been before in the entire history of the US.
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