Posted on 07/01/2019 8:29:04 PM PDT by lasereye
A university election model that predicted the blue wave in the House in 2018 almost to the seat is predicting a big loss by President Trump next year due to an explosion of bitter partisanship and Trump hate.
An election forecast model designed by Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, predicted that Trump will lose the Electoral College 297-197, with 270 of 538 needed to win.
Three key states that helped push Trump over Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2016, despite her winning the popular vote, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, will turn back to the Democrats, she said.
Trumps 2016 path to the White House was the political equivalent of getting dealt a Royal Flush in poker, said Bitecofer. Its probably not replicable in 2020 with an agitated Democratic electorate.
That partisanship, added to the spark in anti-Trump protests by liberals and even left-leaning independents, is likely to overwhelm the increase in GOP voters, she said.
The countrys hyperpartisan and polarized environment has largely set the conditions of the 2020 election in stone, Bitecofer said in a release. The complacent electorate of 2016, who were convinced Trump would never be president, has been replaced with the terrified electorate of 2020. Under my model, that distinction is not only important, it is everything, she added.
Her model in 2018 predicted a 42 seat House Democratic pickup, and the Democrats won 40. Most models did not predict such a big victory.
Yes between voter fraud and Mueller Russia revving up its a wonder we didnt lose more seats. Now that the Mueller stuff is over hopefully that will bring Trump swing voters back in the fold and increase turnout.
What about moderates and conservatives who were very doubtful about Trump in 2016 but now that he has a clear record to run on will vote for him in droves in 2020?
She believes they’re fewer than the Democrats who stayed home in 2016.
She says: Bases decide elections. The Dem base is bigger. If they are motivated, they win.
Her prediction in 2018 was a Royal Flush in Spades. She'll never repeat.
Not that I disagree at all with your postulation. However, I am curious as to which of the 25 or so Democrats running isn’t “God awful”, in your opinion?
They have all moved so far to the fringe left in the primary season, how will one of them move back towards the center and be believable?
Republicans added in the senate
2018 was a mixed bag. Many of the dems that won did so as moderates. They wont have that claim with what the dems are doing to themselves
We need to turn out our vote
“Bitecofer” what An unfortunate name
Good luck bitches
Yep, and the GOP fielded either very weak replacements or conceded districts, offering no opposition...
That is some bullsh*t.
Look up "Ballot Harvesting."
Did her model for 40+ seat gain include California continuing to count found votes for weeks until they had the results they wanted?
Now it's on.
After their one-time amazing feat they tend to return to the accuracy of the background noise and confusion
Like one-trick ponies in the stock market. Regression toward the mean. Outliers are never repeated.
It's the conservatives that make the difference - that, and how hard the Dems cheat on the Big City Plantations.
They phoned in the cheat in PA and MI during the 2016 election.
This is not statistics its some computer model
The model utilizes analytical, inferential and predictive statistics. Thats all it is, really.
They've set the precedent.
It was a blue ballot harvesting/stuffing/fraud wave.
Very practical.
I do think it overstates the media’s power too much.
But maybe not.
same crazy bitch, just before the 2016 election
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/one-of-these-things-is-not-like-the-other_b_581cb253e4b044f827a78bf9
Why do you scare yourselves with this hogwash?
First of all NO ONE can predict the future.
Why? Because it hasn’t happened yet.
Trump 2020 in a LANDSLIDE! Don’t doubt it for a second, chicken littles.
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