Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

How Roy Moore Could Actually Win Alabama’s Republican Senate Primary
FiveThirtyEight ^ | Live Blog: Women’s World Cup Jun. 20, 2019 | Geoffrey Skelley

Posted on 06/24/2019 10:19:09 AM PDT by Texan4Life

A large primary field may fragment the vote, making it unlikely that a candidate could win a majority and avoid a runoff and making it easier for Moore to advance to a runoff with only the support of his base.

The point is that Moore does have a path — especially a path to a primary runoff if there’s a crowded GOP field. And if he does get there, he would be only one step away from a rematch with Jones.

Moore would still have a decent chance of winning a general election in conservative Alabama, and that is surely a big part of why he’s running again.

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: Politics/Elections; US: Alabama
KEYWORDS: alabama; marajadetroll; primary; republican; senate
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 101-120121-140141-160 ... 441-455 next last
To: Bubba_Leroy
Yes Moore was the victim of scurrilous, unfair and defamatory attacks. Those attacks will only get louder if he runs again and he will end up pulling down other Republican candidates on the same ballot.

They cannot get louder. In 2017, the entire media-weapon was focused on Moore. In 2020, they will not be able to devote so much time to nasty hate-filled screeching at the man, because they will be spending that time directing nasty hate filled screeching at Trump and other GOP candidates.

The Democrat ceiling in Alabama appears to be around 700,000 votes, with Trump pulling in over 1.3 million. Whomever gets the nomination is likely going to get the vast majority of that 1.3 million Trump got in 2016, and so regardless of who it is, they will probably win.

Also, people saw them play this "sexual accusations" trick on Kavanaugh, and now people may very will be a lot less willing to believe these sort of "out of the dark" smear accusations against the man.

121 posted on 06/24/2019 12:49:34 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 95 | View Replies]

To: marajade
Obviously, enough Republicans believed them though didn’t they. He lost.

The 25,000 who "wrote in" some other name than Moore certainly believed Richard Shelby who went on national television to urge people in Alabama to "write in" a different name.

Lost the election by almost exactly that amount.

Thanks Richard Shelby! Great Job!

122 posted on 06/24/2019 12:51:32 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 97 | View Replies]

To: Conserv
I’m going to laugh at you when Moore gets stomped.

Some of us can reason, and some of us cannot. If Moore wins the nomination, he will win the General.

To believe otherwise is to believe that out of the 1.3 Million who will vote for Trump, 644,349 of them will not vote for Moore.

That is a ridiculous thing to believe.

Here are a couple of links if you want to check my math. You do know how to do math, don't you?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_States_Senate_special_election_in_Alabama

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Alabama

123 posted on 06/24/2019 12:55:46 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 98 | View Replies]

To: marajade

Losing a single race as the party nominee does not make one a “loser.” He ran and won twice statewide prior to that. As pointed out above, if one loss means you are permanently painted as a loser and unqualified to ever run again, that would include Ronald Reagan (1976 Presidential) and even Bubba Clintoon (1974 Congressional loss and 1980 reelection loss as Governor).

As for Alabama, a fella named Guy Hunt was the 1978 nominee for Governor on the GOP side. He lost in a landslide (73-26%) to then-Democrat Fob James. 8 years later, Hunt scored an upset victory of 56% to win the same office.

A GOP candidate running in American Samoa for Congressional Delegate, Aumua Amata Coleman Radewagen, ran an unprecedented ELEVEN times for Congress before she finally beat the corrupt incumbent in 2014. In 2018, they gave her the largest landslide for any person ever running for that office, 83% of the vote. 20 years before that, she received just 6.47% of the vote.

I tend not to term someone a “loser” until they consistently demonstrate losing election after election, and even they can surprise you, as Del. Radewagen did.


124 posted on 06/24/2019 12:57:19 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Who will think of the gerbils ? Just say no to Buttgiggity !)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 115 | View Replies]

To: DoughtyOne

RE: We need to fall in behind Moore and put the nail in the coffin of the RNC/GOPe.

Darn, we sure do need a “Like” button.

Gonna be a lot of GOPe types that need to be primaried next year.


125 posted on 06/24/2019 12:57:24 PM PDT by CarolinaReaganFan
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 44 | View Replies]

To: commish
Fair or not, right or not, Moore is Toxic with a Capital T.

And he was made so by collusion between the leftist controlled media, and the Republican "establishment" who worked together with them to defeat Moore.

126 posted on 06/24/2019 12:57:51 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 99 | View Replies]

To: DiogenesLamp

Want this upcoming primary also include the presidential candidates?


127 posted on 06/24/2019 12:59:12 PM PDT by deport
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 123 | View Replies]

To: dfwgator

Well, there were 3 options. You had Rep. Mo Brooks with a solid Conservative record. You had the corrupt incumbent Sen. Luther Strange, who got the office in exchange for not investigating/indicting the corrupt Governor, Robert Bentley. And then you had Chief Justice Moore, who stood up unapologetically to the corrupt establishment.

Strange should’ve been dismissed out of hand, but unfortunately, Pres. Trump made the ill-advised decision to endorse this corrupt figure. In hindsight, it would’ve been better to have gone with Brooks, but nobody could have predicted the lengths to which the Demonrats & corrupt RINOs would go to keep the crusading Moore out of the Senate.


128 posted on 06/24/2019 1:01:30 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Who will think of the gerbils ? Just say no to Buttgiggity !)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 117 | View Replies]

To: ptsal

And you would be wrong

Moore won a primary with three or four candidates. Moore’s die hard s got him into the main event and could not deliver. It won’t be any different this time if he squeaks passed the primary


129 posted on 06/24/2019 1:01:48 PM PDT by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: CarolinaReaganFan

Thanks for the note of agreement.


130 posted on 06/24/2019 1:01:51 PM PDT by DoughtyOne (This space for rent...)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 125 | View Replies]

To: marajade

Had everything to do with vile attacks on him and his character. The Demonrats AND the corrupt RINOs were to go too any length to keep him from winning.


131 posted on 06/24/2019 1:02:40 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Who will think of the gerbils ? Just say no to Buttgiggity !)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 119 | View Replies]

To: Conserv
Oh, and I just bet you were with Todd Akin to the bitter end.

Todd Akin is another example of a man whom the media destroyed. I knew nothing of Todd Akin prior to his being derailed in his Senate bid, but I knew of Roy Moore for his courageous stand against the Federal dictators who were trying to impose "gay" marriage on the state, as well as for the Ten Commandments challenge.

Most other Republican office holders are simply too cowardly to make such a stand.

If we keep electing milksops, we shouldn't be surprised when they don't fight.

So, what do you think about George Allen and "Macaca" ?

132 posted on 06/24/2019 1:03:57 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 103 | View Replies]

To: DiogenesLamp

that was creepy, also. her parents were nuts to let that happen.


133 posted on 06/24/2019 1:05:18 PM PDT by ronniesgal (so I wonder what his FR handle is????)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 38 | View Replies]

To: DiogenesLamp

Dick Shelby is living proof that Adm. Jeremiah Denton should’ve won reelection to the Senate in 1986. He seems poised to run again in 2022 and serve in that body until he is nearly 100 (he’ll be 95 in 2029, at the end of that term, which would mark 50 years in Congress).


134 posted on 06/24/2019 1:06:14 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Who will think of the gerbils ? Just say no to Buttgiggity !)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 122 | View Replies]

To: DiogenesLamp

BINGO.


135 posted on 06/24/2019 1:07:25 PM PDT by fieldmarshaldj (Who will think of the gerbils ? Just say no to Buttgiggity !)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 132 | View Replies]

To: ptsal

Plus I’m pretty sure you don’t live in Alabama


136 posted on 06/24/2019 1:07:41 PM PDT by Nifster (I see puppy dogs in the clouds)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 32 | View Replies]

To: HamiltonJay
They don’t have to vote for Jones... they just have to NOT vote for Moore... and that is certainly possible.

644,349 "write ins"? Are you serious?

1.3 million votes for Trump, and 644,349 write ins?

I can't believe even the stupid party could be that stupid.

137 posted on 06/24/2019 1:08:16 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 105 | View Replies]

To: DiogenesLamp

Todd Akin was a fool.

His outright stupidity caught up with him.

George Allen, OTOH, was sunk by the willful Washington Post and the rest of the idiots in the media.

To this day, I won’t listen to a damn thing Larry Sabato says.


138 posted on 06/24/2019 1:09:30 PM PDT by Conserv
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 132 | View Replies]

To: HamiltonJay
Moore didn't lose it. Richard Shelby Lost it. The National party lost it. The media-weapon system lost it.

Moore was just the Emanuel Goldstein of the moment.

He was the target of the "2 minute hate."

139 posted on 06/24/2019 1:09:51 PM PDT by DiogenesLamp ("of parents owing allegiance to no o<ither sovereignty.")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 106 | View Replies]

To: Boogieman
“But, I tend to give a candidate ONE chance to beat another one.”

Sorry, Ronnie Reagan, you had your shot in ‘76!

I see. So Reagan faced Carter in 1976. Wow, much learn. Such fact. Wow.


140 posted on 06/24/2019 1:10:58 PM PDT by Lazamataz (We can be called a racist and we'll just smile. Because we don't care.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 68 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 101-120121-140141-160 ... 441-455 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson