The port at Bandar Abbas is vital to Iran's Navy and their commerce. If they blockade other people's shipping, they won't be getting their's either. It is like strapping on a suicide vest.
Posted on 05/07/2019 7:46:57 AM PDT by PghBaldy
Instant coalition would take out Iranian leadership. Saudi, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar depend on that traffic, and Japan, Korea, Singapore and China need the oil through there. With the US Fifth Fleet nearby, nobody’s going to bend over for the mullahs.
It would not be easy to block a two-mile wide shipping lane for very long. The first attacks on ships there would be over in a couple hours.
“What would happen if Iran sunk a dozen ships in the Strait of Hormuz?”
That is a scenario that the US military has been deliberately planning for, for decades.
“What would happen?”
I would anticipate an ass-kicking of some type.
There are likely response options of various sizes. Their regular Military (Navy and Air Force) could lose some serious capability in a large scale response. Revolutionary Guards anti-ship missiles would likely be targeted, as well as their mine laying capability - whatever was used to sink ships would likely be taken away. It would be a great excuse to blow up Bandar Abbas, where the bulk of their container traffic passes, which would choke their economy significantly.
If we were to go high intensity with Iran, our troops on the ground in Iraq and Syria would need to button up real tight, because Iran has a lot of surrogates there. They might activate some sleeper terrorist cells in the West. If they went too far, the regime would be decapitated.
I doubt they would get around to sinking their twelfth ship to make a dozen, before they found themselves with their hands full of kinetic response.
You've got your facts right... so, how long would it take to unblock a two mile wide shipping lane if Iran intentional sunk 30 or 40 ships there?
The Straights can’t be physically blocked, like you might do by sinking a ship in the locks of the Panama Canal.
The risk of being sunk is what would stop the traffic, either by mines, or by active fires, like ship to ship attacks, anti-ship missiles or artillery from shore, or air attacks.
Sinking 30-40 ships there would take a few days. Iran would only have a few hours.
Interesting surmise. But the hot spot is Persia right now. China may join the fray later but the tariffs are not going to start a world war.
Old freepers rule.
The port at Bandar Abbas is vital to Iran's Navy and their commerce. If they blockade other people's shipping, they won't be getting their's either. It is like strapping on a suicide vest.
21 in the CNN story, but they lie of course.
Correct, but they could play “Roam”.
What would happen if Iran sunk the Lincoln? It’s a possibility.
“What would happen if Iran sunk the Lincoln?”
Regime change.
Probably something like that. It certainly wouldn’t go well for Iran afterwards.
[ U.S. officials say the bomber task force being sent the Middle East will likely include four B-52 bombers. ]
Wow, say I must. Interesting, that is, very.
[Sort of sounds like the mistake I made in having Taco Bell over Panda Express.]
IIRC my last time at Panda Express, an entree seemed like $8 or so while I can still get my $5 box at Taco Bell. With drink!
[What would happen if Iran sunk the Lincoln? It’s a possibility.]
Tehran and Bandar Abbas (perhaps more) will be turned into a flat glass disc, rather quickly.
That would be my guess.
Media reporting on Twitter that Pompeo is now in Baghdad, unannounced.
Is that what smells
Wednesday (8 May) is the one year anniversary of the US withdrawal. Iran is saying it will resume some activities.
Maybe that negates the whole deal, and removes their protection from Military action?
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