Unlikely. The FReepers who spent the last election cycles screaming at the top of their lungs that Pat Roberts will morph into Arlen Specter if he's re-elected, or that Liz Cheney would "destroy the establishment" have yet to recant and admit they were on the wrong side after being PROVEN wrong.
Oh, and I'm still waiting for Attorney General Barr to be the "gun grabber" and "anti-Trump swamp creature" his detractors swore up and down he'd be if he was confirmed as A.G.
Re: Graham “If he wins he will be back bashing President Trump within 48 hours.”
There doesn’t appear to be an “if”. His strong defense of Kav has greatly reduced the already not high chances he’ll have a serious primary challenger.
Re: Gary Peters “ Peters won election in 2014 - an off year for Democrats - by 14 points so I don’t see him as all that vulnerable”
The Republican candidate was horrendous and had a “meltdown” on camera that 86ed her chances. I looked at the Senatorial approval ratings and Peters was actually the LEAST KNOWN of any Senator in his home state, giving him less of an incumbents’ advantage. I think he is quite vulnerable IF President Trump is carrying the state (ticket splitting will be low) and we have a good candidate, possibly 2018 nominee John James who slightly over performed in a bad year.
Re: Tillis “Sure hope Tillis has a strong challenger in the primary so we can send him home.”
He has recently acquired a challenger who is running as a “true conservative™”. However this guy, random rich dude Garland Tucker, was a never Trumper in the primaries, to the point of supporting Kasich (he did back the ticket in the general however). I’m am skeptical of whether Tucker deserves consideration. Whether he is actually more conservative than Tillis is an open and possibly indeterminable question and a first time candidate is not a good match for a “purple” state (which NC is, not “left-leaning” like the psychotic author of the Axios article purports, Sally Jihad or whatever her name is).
Sally Jihad is obviously an idiot, pegging Virginia as being a “hot” race because it was close in 2014. I won’t write it off completely but a close race against Mark Warner is not likely and the state is lean D in the POTUS race.
Famously ZERO states split tickets for President/Senate in 2016 and I don’t think more than a few states could split in 2020. We’re at a nadir of ticket splitting.
We will win Alabama, provided uber loser Roy Moore is not renominated (and maybe even if he is, all that would do is make the race competitive again). If need be the President must step in and go nuclear on Moore.
The next best target is NH if Governor Sununu runs, polls are tied, oddly I don’t NH being talked about much. #3 target is Michigan. Limited opportunities in other seats but the open seat in New Mexico bears watching.
Vulnerable seats are
Colorado at #1, a slight D state but Gardener is tough and can beat it out (if Trump is running strong he can carry the state)
Arizona, McSally vs. Cuck Astronaut, little ticket splitting expected, Enema was by far the strongest democrat in the state, they don’t have another one. I expect McSally to survive baring a disaster that sees Trump lose the state.
Other potentially vulnerable seats
Maine, Collins is popular and I have a hard time seeing her lose, Trump should do well there and maybe even win the state and she’ll get a more crossover votes than any other seriously challenged Republican. I don’t think feminazi outrage will be enough to tank her.
NC, not safe but I have trouble seeing it go D. Should be very little ticket splitting.
GA, Stacy Abrams passing on the race leaves rats without a top tier candidate
IA, Rat Rep. Cindy Axne just declined Chuck Shoemer’s begging and is running for reelection to the House, doesn’t look like the rats have anyone strong considering the race. Ex-Rep David Young will challenge Axne to get his House seat back.
Sadly no great gains seem likely but with luck we can have a net gain and democrats do not expect to win the chamber even if they have a good night.