Posted on 03/10/2019 3:30:38 PM PDT by Steve Schulin
North Korea is keen to have sanctions eased, as the country faces a dire food shortage, a former U.K. ambassador to North Korea said.
[photo caption] Children wave from a window at a kindergarten in Samchon, North Korea, in this photo taken by a World Food Program official in October 2015. An estimated 11 million North Koreans, more than 43 percent of the country’s population, are undernourished, according to a U.N. report issued Wednesday. [photo credit: Korea Times file]
After a summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un in Hanoi last month failed to produce an agreement, North Korean Foreign Minister Ri Yong-ho told reporters that Pyongyang had asked for sanctions relating to the people’s livelihoods to be eased.
North Korea has asked the U.N. for food aid, stating it is facing a production shortfall of 1.4 million tons of food this year.
Last year, North Korea’s food production fell to its lowest in more than a decade, according to a recent U.N. report.
“The North Korean economy is in deep trouble,” John Everard, who served as U.K. ambassador to Pyongyang from 2006 to 2008, told The Korea Times in an interview at the President Hotel in Seoul, March 1.
He was in Seoul for a conference hosted by the Global Peace Foundation.
“Kim said in his first speech to his people there will be no return to the Arduous March. If hunger reappears, politically Kim will be in trouble. He will be seen to have broken his promise to his people,” he said.
The Arduous March refers to a famine in North Korea that lasted from 1994 to 1998.
It is estimated to have resulted in at least 300,000 deaths from starvation and hunger-related illnesses.
The regime would consider the food shortage a dangerous situation, as it has concerns over a possible uprising, Everard said.
The former ambassador recalled what members of North Korea’s ruling class told him while he was in Pyongyang.
“They said ‘never tell ordinary people what we talk about.’ This came from the fear that people will turn against them,” he said.
“The regime is nervous — it was then, it is now. It is under constant pressure.”
Former North Korean Deputy Ambassador to the U.K. Thae Yong-ho, who defected to the South in 2016, referred to the possibility of an uprising after his defection, citing the influx of foreign media content.
NK intentions to denuclearize
Thae has also said the North Korean regime will never give up its nuclear program, because this is something that guarantees its continuation.
Everard disagrees, saying it is possible Pyongyang would give up its nuclear arsenal.
“If sanctions incurred by the nuclear program were causing such economic dislocation that the regime felt threatened by a mob, the regime might think twice about holding weapons,” he said.
Yet, “The U.S. would have to provide very good reasons for why North Korea should abandon its nuclear weapons,” he added.
“From the point of view of the North Korean regime, the nuclear program has been a tremendous success, it has prevented attacks by the U.S., and also bolstered prestige of the regime among the North Korean people. In addition, it secured the first ever meeting between the North Korean leader and a sitting U.S. president.”
Everard noted it would be difficult to organize North Korea’s denuclearization. This is a possible explanation for the failed summit in Hanoi.
“If the process is to move forward, it can only be by the establishment of common ground between the two, as what North Korea wants is different from what the U.S. wants,” the former ambassador said.
“This is always the case in negotiations — that is why you negotiate, you look for ways in which something of the two sets of objectives can be combined into a package that both sides can accept.”
In the meantime, he said it may have been fortunate the leaders did not reach an agreement.
“It may have been a relief that no deal was signed, given what happened in Singapore,” he said, implying an imbalanced deal could have been reached given Kim’s depth of preparation and skill.
Future prospects
Meanwhile, the former ambassador said talks between Pyongyang and Washington may take a break.
“I think right now both sides are feeling hurt. I don’t think there will be more contact in the immediate future. There might be a pause in the process — that would be normal,” he said.
Follow-up discussions will likely address the denuclearization steps North Korea would have to take if sanctions were to be eased.
At the Hanoi summit, North Korea claimed it asked for sanctions concerning the livelihood of its people to be eased, in response to it dismantling its Yongbyon nuclear facility.
The U.S. appears to have wanted North Korea to take additional denuclearization steps for sanctions to be alleviated.
Under such circumstances, either side would have to make a concession for a breakthrough.
This could be offering something in addition to shutting down the Yongbyon facility, the former ambassador said.
“There are various intermediate steps that can be taken. This could be dismantling another site, surrender of missiles, allowing inspectors into the partially demolished Punggye-ri and Tonchang-ri test sites,” he said.
“Dismantling of a submarine-based missile launch facility in Nampo would be a significant concession by the North.”
NK economy
Everard also spoke about the poor condition of North Korea’s economy.
“The North Korean regime appears to believe the root of economic problems is sanctions and therefore sanctions relief will lead to economic prosperity,” he said.
“The problem is not the sanctions but that the North Korean economy is so inefficient. Its directed economy with limited use of free markets, its allocation of resources is appalling. Very often, economic units destroy wealth.”
He added, “Until there is reform, it will continue to underperform.”
Everard said Vietnam’s socialist-oriented market economy could present a viable model for the North, which he said has been studying various models for economic reform.
"The North Korean government has decreed that every able-bodied citizen must turn in 100 kg (220 lbs) of human manure a day to be used for fertilizer, to bolster the agricultural sector."
I smell some really rank BS in this one. Yes they are hurtin’, and the way to fix it is for them to give up their nukes period.
Mean ol’ heartless PDJT wants to win this, and get it over with now, not leaving it to someone that isn’t going to handle it his way in the future. Git er done.
Hey FatKid, yes you fatso, in a starving country, give up your nukes you maniac. Have your nuclear technology at your seaport awaiting pick up by our teams to dismantle and recycle them.
That is right fat kid, give it up, you lost, either give up your nukes or your own slaves eat you.
...
They’ve been hurting for years. Kim feeds his army and the people starve.
Just another UK Socialist mouthing off about something he has nothing to do with.
I’ve often wondered if Kim would follow through on a plan that would open NK to far more contacts with SK and the outside world, and the investments Trump talks about and the chance for far greater economic opportunity for NK citizens.
Where would that leave Kim? With more freedom and far better economic prospects, would the NKs want Kim still lording over them as a pot bellied dictator?
I doubt it. Not convinced Kim wants to see NK become more like SK, even if the Chinese would allow it to be set in motion with a denuclearization deal.
Kim probably would have turned in his nukes by now but for Hillary’s double cross of Qaddafi. We may not sympathize with him but we can understand his justifiable fears.
Perhaps some solid guarantees can be offered that some future Dem won’t decide to betray him to score political points.
I was an MP I Corp. Grp. HQ in ‘66 Camp Red Cloud. I remember the stories, and it never got better.
Food would be exempt from sanctions for humanitarian reasons.
The humanitarian exemption is in the sanctions.
Plenty to quibble with here. But a good overall summary!
We gave food money to Saddam....He built 50....yes 50...new palaces.
Oh yeah.
Just pointing out an obvious fallacy in the article.
Otherwise it’s pretty good.
I Like the mention of “intermediate” goals. Like with China, we’ll have to settle for less than we want with NK.
And, like with China, we have to get what we need.
(Cue Rolling Stones...)
If Kim wants the sanctions to go away, all he has to do is agree to Trump’s conditions.
I think its in Kims best interest to make some kind of deal with Trump that helps his people these people have never knew nothing but pure struggle and if there living conditions and access to food was not a problem anymore Kim would be seen as a true living God your not going to turn on the man thats feeding you and these people are loyal to the death to this dictator..
Absolutely!
And Kim’s young enough that he could have a George Washington-level of admiration for decades. And great wealth!
I can only explain his behavior by China’s influence, especially with the military.
Yet leaders have rejected clearly good choices throughout history.
The ‘Rats always make things difficult
They don’t want the Kim regime to go away, its an easy boogy man the cia can prop up
SEND A BOMB DOWN THE NUKE SITE. END OF STORY
“” Kim probably would have turned in his nukes by now but for Hillary’s double cross of Qaddafi. We may not sympathize with him but we can understand his justifiable fears.
Perhaps some solid guarantees can be offered that some future Dem won’t decide to betray him to score political points.””
Bingo. Libya and Iraq are case study on the price of compliance on non-proliferation for nonconformist regimes. We should expect more countries pursuing weapon programs in future making the planet a more dangerous place. With India and Pakistan in charge of nuclear deterrent it is already scary. Now imagine Ephiopia and Eritrea on the same terms.
Sounds like he's praising Kim's skill while trying to imply Pres. Trump is an ill-prepared dumbass.
Well, we shall see. Pres. Trump had the guts to try, something every President since Truman did not.
In the long run, Trump will win out.
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