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Analyst: Brexit deal now so damaged, “I don’t think it’s going to happen”
Hotair.com ^ | January 2, 2018 | JAZZ SHAW

Posted on 01/02/2019 6:07:15 PM PST by Kaslin

There is now less than three months until the Brexit deadline in Great Britain. (The lights go out on March 29th absent some drastic change of course.) The deal that Theresa May cut with the EU Parliament has pleased pretty much nobody and shows no signs of being able to be approved in the House of Commons. An effort by the Prime Minister’s own party to remove her from office failed, largely because nobody else really wanted the job. So we’re heading for a No Deal Brexit, right?

Perhaps not. Lara Marlowe, a correspondent for the Irish Times in Paris and experienced Brexit observer, opined this week that the No Deal isn’t really a done deal at all. In fact, as she sees it, the odds are in favor of the entire process being derailed over the next two months, with a second referendum being called. (express.co.uk)

Speaking to France 24, Ms Marlowe said: “I personally – and this is just a hunch, it’s not empirical because you cannot be empirical about Brexit because it’s the biggest mess we’ve ever seen – I don’t think it’s going to happen.

“I think there will be a second referendum. Theresa May has now postponed the parliamentary vote on her negotiated plan until January. There’s a lot of pressure.”

Brexiteers have rejected pleas from Theresa May to back her divisive deal – with prominent Leave supporter Sir Bill Cash making it his New Year’s Resolution not to back the Prime Minister’s terms.

Ms Marlowe continued: “Her own party is torn apart between Remainers and Leavers and so on and so forth. I think there will be a second referendum.

While I’m not entirely sure I agree, let’s just say for the moment that Marlowe is correct. How would the Brits go about doing it? They can’t schedule another referendum without the Prime Minister going along with the idea and May has stated repeatedly that it’s not going to happen. A new Prime Minister could call for the second referendum but there’s no indication that the entire House of Commons would agree to a vote of no confidence to remove her. So what are their options?

According to Marlowe, Parliament could force the situation in the same way Congress shuts things down in the United States. She suggests that some UK lawmakers, both among the Remainers and the Brexiteers, are looking at shutting down a large, upcoming finance bill, precisely the same way we’re currently holding up the next spending bill over the border wall. This would halt the collection of roughly one-third of the government’s taxes, shutting down many services. In order to restore financial order, they would demand a second referendum in return.

That’s some serious, hardball politics if she’s correct, but the United States stands as proof that it could work. And if government services shut down in a more socialist society like Great Britain, things could turn ugly fast. It’s much easier to remove a Prime Minister than it is an American President, so May might find herself out the door or be forced to concede on the referendum.

Do opponents of a No Deal Brexit have enough votes to pull this off? It’s certainly possible, if not likely. But here’s the final question posed by Marlowe which is worth considering. Would a second referendum have two choices or three? If it’s a simple up or down question, recent polling suggests the Remain contingent would win by a wide enough margin to carry the day and the entire Brexit debacle would have been for nothing. But they might offer three options: Remain, No Deal Brexit or the deal May negotiated.

If they split the vote three ways, there’s no telling what might happen. Either way, the Brexit crazy train still has a long way to run before it pulls into the station. And anyone who tells you they know how this story ends is probably fooling themselves.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial
KEYWORDS: brexit; europeanunion; nodeal; theresamay
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1 posted on 01/02/2019 6:07:15 PM PST by Kaslin
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To: Kaslin

That’s the entire point.


2 posted on 01/02/2019 6:08:47 PM PST by TBP (Progressives lack compassion and tolerance. Their self-aggrandizement is all that matters.)
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To: Kaslin

Way to thwart the will of the people, globalists.


3 posted on 01/02/2019 6:15:45 PM PST by AnotherUnixGeek
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To: AnotherUnixGeek

The fat lady has not yet sung.


4 posted on 01/02/2019 6:16:36 PM PST by BenLurkin (The above is not a statement of fact. It is either satire or opinion. Or both.)
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To: Kaslin

Mission accomplished


5 posted on 01/02/2019 6:18:49 PM PST by proust (Justice delayed is injustice.)
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To: proust

The elites will just keep ordering more referenda until the vote turns out the right way (see, Ireland, for example).


6 posted on 01/02/2019 6:27:14 PM PST by CondorFlight
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To: Kaslin

JUST. LEAVE.


7 posted on 01/02/2019 6:27:20 PM PST by FrdmLvr (They never thought she would lose.)
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To: Kaslin

If the Brits want to be enslaved by the EU, let them.


8 posted on 01/02/2019 6:34:16 PM PST by tennmountainman ("Trust Sessions" Yeah Right")
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To: Kaslin

The vote didygo the way elites wanted so they drag their heels and want another vote. Time for a yellow jacket protest in England.


9 posted on 01/02/2019 6:41:12 PM PST by Flick Lives
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To: Kaslin

“Analyst: Brexit deal now so damaged, “I don’t think it’s going to happen”

That’s what happens when you elect a woe man who should be runnin0g quilting bees or womens book clubs to the highest office of a once proud, strong country.


10 posted on 01/02/2019 6:42:56 PM PST by Bonemaker (invictus maneo)
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To: Kaslin

What a bunch of baloney! The PEOPLE voted FOR Brexit, and this evil commie witch May has stepped all over their desires. Furthermore, she is hand in hand with the likes of Khan the muzzlime, to turn Britain into a Muzzlime entity. She is their version of Odungo. Just like Merkel is Germany’s version of Odungo.


11 posted on 01/02/2019 7:11:32 PM PST by EinNYC
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To: Kaslin
You didn't believe the government was actually going to obey the Brexit vote, did you?
12 posted on 01/02/2019 7:18:29 PM PST by The Pack Knight
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To: Kaslin

They ignore the consent of the governed and the will of the people.

They are corrupt AF and against sovereignty and independence and liberty.

Hundreds of years of struggle whizzed away by globalists who just don’t care.


13 posted on 01/02/2019 7:58:17 PM PST by a fool in paradise (Denounce DUAC - The Democrats Un-American Activists Committee)
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To: AnotherUnixGeek

Way to thwart the will of the people, globalists.


Um, that is kind of the point of the globalists. Use us against us for their own personal gain. We are pawns to them. They move us mostly with PC these days.


14 posted on 01/02/2019 9:04:08 PM PST by Yaelle
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To: a fool in paradise

British history in a nutshell, and they never learn.


15 posted on 01/02/2019 9:26:30 PM PST by Durus (You can avoid reality, but you cannot avoid the consequences of avoiding reality. Ayn Rand)
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To: Kaslin

A pathetically transparent ploy by the globalist malefactors.


16 posted on 01/02/2019 11:01:37 PM PST by Psalm 144 (2016 Election Tampering: a weasel borne plague originating in the UK.)
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To: Kaslin

A pathetically transparent ploy by the globalist malefactors.


17 posted on 01/02/2019 11:01:38 PM PST by Psalm 144 (2016 Election Tampering: a weasel borne plague originating in the UK.)
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To: Kaslin

So, England pays no money. And gets to make its own deals with everyone. I think a hard brexit is a great deal for England. Maybe a few months of confusion. But the final result will be great for the queen and all her subjects.


18 posted on 01/02/2019 11:16:26 PM PST by poinq
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To: a fool in paradise

“They ignore the consent of the governed and the will of the people”

Neither of those things are part of the UK constitution or the UK political system.


19 posted on 01/02/2019 11:45:09 PM PST by Jim Noble (Freedom is the freedom to say that 2+2 = 4)
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To: Kaslin

The Brits will bow to Germany or to islam.


20 posted on 01/03/2019 6:12:48 AM PST by rrrod (just an old guy with a gun in his pocket)
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