Posted on 11/05/2018 11:33:01 AM PST by SeekAndFind
The Congressional election polls are all over the map, and we have two days to go before Election Day. Real Clear Politics, the Cook Report, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball have outlined anywhere from 40 to 60 Republican-held House Seats in their crosshairs. As expected, they are underreporting GOP opportunities for the US Senate. Republicans have nothing to lose and so much to gain in the upper chamber. How accurate are the polls? How much faith should we place in the website metrics offered by these establishment-leaning pollsters and aggregators? Not much, in my opinion.
Granted, that’s an easy argument to make right now, since most center-right pundits have argued that the pollsters were so wrong in 2016, that they will likely be wrong again. But why were they wrong? I submit that many Trump-supporting or at least Trump-leaning voters were reticent to acknowledge their support for the New York Real Estate Tycoon turned Real TV star turned Presidential candidate. But they voted for him, and he won.
In addition, the core group that showed up for Trump in 2016, working class voters, particularly white voters in the Rust Belt, don’t use the more Millennial-oriented kind of hyper-modern, blitzy technology. Most working voters are too busy … working. In fact, because of Trump’s policies, they are working much more than during the Obama Administration. Manufacturing and resource jobs are up—way up. Add to that household incomes are rising along with consumer confidence and general economic outlook. The Trump-voting Democrats, working-class Republicans, and more confident Independents don’t bother redefining their lives on social media, nor do they descant on their political views every hour on the hour. With this in mind, we can rest assured that crucial voter demographics are not paying attention to non-stop, left-wing propaganda of the mainstream Fake News media and the never-ending onslaught of campaign media.
What is going on with the House races, though? For better information, I have been paying attention Arizona native, writer, political data analyzer and prognosticator Larry Schweikart. He accurately predicted Trump’s victory, and he has mined the numbers—actually figures, as opposed to touch-feely polling—which maintains that Republican voter registrations have risen in key states. Early voting metrics confirm that GOP turnout is exceeding previous models. One could argue that those GOP voters are now siding with Democratic candidates. That argument doesn’t make sense, since Trump’s rallies in these states have surpassed turnout during his 2016 Presidential campaign.
Now, let’s look at specific seats and numbers. For sure, Republicans will pick up at least one seat in Pennsylvania (PA-14) and three in Minnesota: MN-01, MN-07, and MN-08. The last two districts President Trump carried by double-digit margins in 2016. Based on current voting patterns out of Iowa, Second District House Rep. Debbie Loebsack is in more trouble than most realize, but no one is talking about it. That’s five more seats added to Democrats’ climb to take back the House.
But Democrats are targeting eight house seats in California, too. Won’t that help them cross the threshold to victory? They are delusional for thinking they can knock out Devin Nunes of Tulare County. The district is very conservative, but more importantly Nunes is very popular, and Trump’s latest executive order on water issues has only helped him and fellow GOP incumbents Valadao and Denham. Democrats are targeting four seats in Orange County, but their only chance for a pick-up is CA-49, since OC Republicans are fighting hard to maintain their reputation as a conservative stronghold. Much of their spending has flowed into broadcasting television advertising. The expansive Southern California media market covers Ventura County to the Inland Empire, through Orange and Riverside Counties. One commercial blasts conservative House Rep. Dana Rohrabacher from Coastal OC, but it’s hitting homes as far away as Victorville (where two Republicans are running in CA-08). This is wasteful spending and ineffective campaigning, both Democratic hallmarks. Rohrabacher’s early voting trends show him already 13 points ahead. I don’t see how Democratic turnout on Election Day will reverse this.
So, here’s my prediction on which I will hang my MAGA hat, (but I will not eat it if I am wrong):
The Republicans will gain seven US Senate seats, listed in order of likelihood: North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, Montana, Florida, West Virginia, and New Jersey. Yes, I am including New Jersey, since “Mendacious” Robert Menendez’ numbers have been stunningly bad, and outsider GOP candidate Bob Hugin has done surprisingly well, forcing many pollsters to rate this race a toss-up. I wish I could add Ohio to this list, but incumbent Sherrod Brown’s pseudo-populist leanings have strengthened his brand. Wisconsin and Michigan still have a progressive Democratic undercurrent, so the federal delegations will not turn red this year.
What about the House of Representatives? The Democrats will gain seven to 15 seats, falling short of a majority. They will flip three seats in Pennsylvania (because of the last-minute court-ordered redistricting), two seats in New Jersey, since that state is getting bluer by the minute, but Democrats won’t win any in California. Early voting (not polling) shows Diane Harkey doing surprisingly well against Mike Levin in their respective bids to replace Darrell Issa in that South Orange---North San Diego County district.
These are optimistic projections, but the Caravan Crisis, the Kavanaugh corruption, the media’s frequently shooting itself in the foot with false headlines, plus the hollow smears again President Trump and Republicans have worn out. Voters want normalcy, and the Democratic Party is clamoring for socialism, open borders, and lawlessness.
Governments exist among men to protect their rights, and the Democratic Party is running a platform of moral wrongs and Presidential aspirations. Republicans are touting “Jobs Not Mobs”, plus a clear commitment to Draining the Swamp and destroying the Deep State. Besides, the mere thought of Maxine Waters chairing any committee scares normal people, and it’s the normals who got Trump elected in 2016.
Republicans are going to make history by defying history on Election Night 2018.
I agree. Most of the Dem gains will be due to activist court shenanigans here in PA.
#NY23: Tom Reed hits Mitrano campaign for staffer anti-cop, anti-capitalist social media post
I have the same hopeful feeling as before the 2016 election.
I knew Trump would win. The crowd sizes showed it.
Now Trump has delivered on many things and his voters love him even more. His tireless campaigning is endearing and inspiring.
I believe we will win and bigly.
Bttt.
5.56mm
Concerning races in the House, are there no apparently vulnerable Democrat seats? All I keep hearing about are that the only vulnerable seats belong to the GOP? So ... all of the Democrat districts are supposedly safe? How is it possible that Democrats can be so near majority represented when the vast majority of state legislatures are in GOP hands? This makes no sense. I need help understanding how the Democrats can be on the verge of controlling anything when the districts they run in are being shaped by their opponents..
Ping
I agree with you.
It seems counter-intuitive for anyone to vote democrat.
But....they vote blindly...every time! I don’t get it. The D’s have it all hanging out there from rigging their own primary in 2016 to the Kavanaugh fiasco and yet their constituent think all is just dandy.
I just don’t get it.
But....they vote blindly...every time! I don’t get it. The D’s have it all hanging out there from rigging their own primary in 2016 to the Kavanaugh fiasco and yet their constituent think all is just dandy.
I just don’t get it.
Because to a Democrat the end result is more important then how they get there, at any cost to worship their government utopia.
I am encouraged by the Blexit and #WalkAway movements. Trump has delivered for all Americans. Trump will get us many new voters.
The dems keep on trying to divide, racists that they are.
Trump and conservatives welcome all to the conservative movement.
LS has been very quiet this past week. That concerns me.
RE: Article is dated today, Monday the 5th
It was written on Nov. 4 and published on Nov. 5 is my guess. Not much difference in terms of his analysis IMHO.
What is missing from all this endless analysis is that Hillary was running in 2016 and even Dimms hated (hate) her.
I remain unconvinced that Trump would have won if the Dimms coulda found a reasonable candidate...which seems unlikely.
The article points out several House seats that are likely pick-ups by the GOP. The main reason many are predicting a D advantage is because 45 GOP representatives chose to retire this year. Many made this decision because they did not like Trump or thought Trump would be a disastrous POTUS with no coattails to ride on; many of those were GOP seats but in districts that HRC carried or which were very divided. They thought they saw a tough road ahead and chose to retire than to fight against the POTUS and party and demographics.
They made the decision early, as they generally have to do for fundraising and planning reasons, back when the anti-Trump crusade was at its peak; when Mueller was appointed and the media was claiming disarray in the White House, when several insiders like Spicer and Bannon resigned, with media incessantly crying “the walls are closing in” and “the beginning of the end” as that recent video showed.
The Dems have the same problem in the Senate, in reverse. They have more open seats, and races for seats in states that Trump carried or came close to winning, and a couple vulnerable candidates. That is why most polls see a GOP pickup in the Senate.
Those of little faith, how little did they know. I sure hope the GOP holds the House. I wonder too if any Dems elected to the House might be persuaded to flip sides; there are a couple of fairly moderate, decent Dems running. I don’t think they will win their races but these are people who might otherwise have run as GOP candidates if the seats were open. Not many mind you, but maybe 2 or 3 I can think of. They will probably not win as Dems but you never know.
yeah tomorrow is going to be a long day, I’ll admit I’ve gone from optimistic to a feeling of dread. I need some pearls
Watching President Trump’s rally in Cleveland Ohio he asked the question to the massive crowd how many of you have voted already and the response was very few when he asked how many have not the whole massive audience erupted. I’m thinking tomorrow is going to be a massive red day!
Actually there are about 13 Democrat seats that might flip Red.
It’s fearful times as such you need to get on your knees and seek God for peace, comfort and a victory!! Take nothing for granted!! ALREADY VOTED? Good!! Get on your knees and pray!! Already helped GOTV..good!! Get on your knees and pray!! That’s all that is left, that’s all we can humanly possibly do ...God will do the rest!
Well when you’re an news author and you’re writing an article late at night, plan ahead. If you’re an editor or the one hitting the Publish button, you do a quick read of the article. The date gaff is in the first sentence.
First vote, then pray.
God helps those who help themselves; those who sit on the couch praying, without doing anything with the mind and hands that He gave us, not so much. It is, after all, a bit of a miracle that we can still vote for our representatives well over 2 centuries after our system was set up - THAT is you miracle, so go and USE IT.
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