Posted on 11/01/2018 7:19:02 PM PDT by Ravi
See comments if interested.
STATEWIDE TURNOUT SO FAR: 32.43%
BLUE COUNTIES:
HARRIS-29.42% (-3.01%)
DALLAS-32.14% (-0.31%)
BEXAR-30.75% (-1.68%)
TRAVIS-38.22% (+5.79%)
EL PASO-25.12% (-7.31%)
HIDALGO-25.59% (-6.84%)
CAMERON-21.53% (-10.9%)
RED COUNTIES:
TARRANT-33.55% (+1.12%)
COLLIN-40.52% (+8.09%)
DENTON-37.42% (+4.99%)
MONTGOMERY-34.36% (+1.93%)
WILLIAMSON-40.53% (+8.1%)
I decided on red and blue counties based on last election results (see link below). These are many of the biggest counties in the state. I didn't list all of them. But the pattern generally remains the same. Blue counties are under-performing relative to statewide turnout and Red counties are over-performing relative to statewide turnout.
In addition the people at TargetSmart who have modeled all the voters (scary that they are able to do this) have determined a "modeled" electorate. They have some proprietary formula to determine whether someone is an R or a D. This is their data below:
REPS-2,378,270 voters have cast ballots
DEMS-1,689,078 voters have cast ballots
In particular with TargetSmart, I would be careful with them. Still no real track record that I can find - this is all rather new. They are a Democratic firm so I see no reason why they would pump up the data for the Reps. The main point I would make is the GOP counties are voting at a heavier level than the DEM counties (other than Travis).
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/texas
https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2018/oct31.shtml
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/charts.html?state=TX
ping
ping
I think after tonight Beto gets BEAT !
Thanks!
Wow. Thanks.
But Targetsmart also states that there are an unprecedented amount of first time voters in Texas that are presumably mostly Beto voters.
Targetsmart also states that they are seeing very high levels of millennial turnout, AA turnout, Hispanic turnout, etc. Seeing it in Texas, Georgia, and Florida especially.
If you read their stuff they are pretty bullish on Dems this cycle.
so somewhere around 700,000 more votes so far?
Interesting. Travis has that leper colony of students, and Austin is Mojado Central for south and central America.
Interesting. Travis has that leper colony of students, and Austin is Mojado Central for south and central America.
Thanks for posting this.
I hope it means good things for us.
Thank you for all that you do for us Ravi !!
They compare everything to 2014 midterms. That is an incorrect comparison this year.
Better comparison is 2016 everywhere.
I think the reverse is true. They continue to D+ oversample.
Why isn’t that reflected in the early vote?
I have been saying this for weeks. There is no evidence that the Democratic base is fired up with the exception of very liberal white women. These numbers back this up. Travis is the only blue county with high numbers. These are white women in Austin. Blacks and Latinos are not showing up.
Does not look good for Robert Francis
And everyone is trying to figure out what it means for purple House districts.
Rats have to flip 23 to take control of the House.
Sad that in Texas 7 big cities are socialist blue and only 5 are red....scary futures projection!
Liberals don’t reproduce. SF has more dogs than children.
Read the Dem who seems to understand what’s happening in Florida. Thefloridasqueeze.
Also AJC poll has Kemp/Abrams tied. When has the AJC ever published a favorable poll for the Reps. For them to show it tied suggests Kemp is ahead.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.