[Ravi]

About 4 million ballots have been cast in Texas. There is no party registration here. The only thing we can use to determine who's voting is using turnout from "Red" and "Blue" counties and compare to statewide average.

STATEWIDE TURNOUT SO FAR: 32.43%

BLUE COUNTIES:

HARRIS-29.42% (-3.01%)
DALLAS-32.14% (-0.31%)
BEXAR-30.75% (-1.68%)
TRAVIS-38.22% (+5.79%)
EL PASO-25.12% (-7.31%)
HIDALGO-25.59% (-6.84%)
CAMERON-21.53% (-10.9%)

RED COUNTIES:

TARRANT-33.55% (+1.12%)
COLLIN-40.52% (+8.09%)
DENTON-37.42% (+4.99%)
MONTGOMERY-34.36% (+1.93%)
WILLIAMSON-40.53% (+8.1%)

I decided on red and blue counties based on last election results (see link below). These are many of the biggest counties in the state. I didn't list all of them. But the pattern generally remains the same. Blue counties are under-performing relative to statewide turnout and Red counties are over-performing relative to statewide turnout.

In addition the people at TargetSmart who have modeled all the voters (scary that they are able to do this) have determined a "modeled" electorate. They have some proprietary formula to determine whether someone is an R or a D. This is their data below:

REPS-2,378,270 voters have cast ballots
DEMS-1,689,078 voters have cast ballots

In particular with TargetSmart, I would be careful with them. Still no real track record that I can find - this is all rather new. They are a Democratic firm so I see no reason why they would pump up the data for the Reps. The main point I would make is the GOP counties are voting at a heavier level than the DEM counties (other than Travis).

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/texas
https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/earlyvoting/2018/oct31.shtml
https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/charts.html?state=TX

[Ravi]

ping

[Ravi]

ping

[Col Frank Slade]

I think after tonight Beto gets BEAT !

[Democrats hate too much]

Thanks!

[St. Louis Conservative]

But Targetsmart also states that there are an unprecedented amount of first time voters in Texas that are presumably mostly Beto voters.

Targetsmart also states that they are seeing very high levels of millennial turnout, AA turnout, Hispanic turnout, etc. Seeing it in Texas, Georgia, and Florida especially.

If you read their stuff they are pretty bullish on Dems this cycle.

[Hman528]

so somewhere around 700,000 more votes so far?

[Psalm 144]

Interesting. Travis has that leper colony of students, and Austin is Mojado Central for south and central America.

[Psalm 144]

Interesting. Travis has that leper colony of students, and Austin is Mojado Central for south and central America.

[RWGinger]

Thanks for posting this.
I hope it means good things for us.

[onona]

#raviisawesome!

Thank you for all that you do for us Ravi !!

[bort]

I have been saying this for weeks. There is no evidence that the Democratic base is fired up with the exception of very liberal white women. These numbers back this up. Travis is the only blue county with high numbers. These are white women in Austin. Blacks and Latinos are not showing up.

[RoseofTexas]

Sad that in Texas 7 big cities are socialist blue and only 5 are red....scary futures projection!

[smokingfrog]

REPS-2,378,270 voters have cast ballots
DEMS-1,689,078 voters have cast ballots

Bad News for Beto.

[RoseofTexas]

Have you heard of this group..the Trafalgar polling group? They are supposed to be one of the accurate pollsters out there, they predicted Trump’s victory in PA and MI ...they have Nelson 49 Scott 47and DeSantis 46 gillum 48..what do you think?

[Florida1181]

This all appears to be bad news for Robert Francis O’Rourke, right?

[fortheDeclaration]

They take all of the ‘Beto’ signs and use them for fire wood.

[RitaOK]

Great job, Ravi.

The immeasurable factor is TRUMP. He has favorably surprised both Republicans and Democrats on the ground and increasingly so. Even California is making a place for Republican enthusiasm. That is unheard of.

There are so many more voters now who support Trump, none of whom were *for* him for possibly even his entire first year in office.

Now, we hear of black support surging, the neverTrumpers came home, and the crisis of immigration has surely galvanized even a few zombies to go vote R, on the 6th, in order to help the president’s agenda.

[thingumbob]

I live in Travis County. There were a lot of Republican voters in my line on the first day of voting.

It probably won't make a difference and turn the county pink but I would love to see the county turn at least a light shade of blue.

[MrChips]

I know Harris County is Houston. Can I assume Dallas County is Dallas? What counties are Austin and San Antonio?

[DFG]

El Paso (Robert Francis O’Rourke’s congressional district) must not be very excited him.

EL PASO-25.12% (-7.31%)