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Will Burly Men Stop House Democrats' Blue Wave?
Townhall.com ^ | October 26, 2018 | Michael Barone

Posted on 10/26/2018 5:33:12 AM PDT by Kaslin

Do they live in two different worlds? White college graduate women favor Democrats over Republicans in House elections by a 62 to 35 percent margin. White non-college-graduate men favor Republicans over Democrats in House elections by a 58 to 38 percent margin.

Those results are from a Washington Post-Schar School poll conducted in 69 seriously contested congressional districts, 63 of them currently held by Republicans. The numbers in other polls are only slightly different for these two groups.

They all tell the same story. These Americans live in the same relatively small slices of America (average population about 750,000), not many miles away from one another if they're in major metropolitan areas or in similar communities in rural districts. But they take very different -- often angrily different -- views on where the nation is headed and on sensitive issues.

Most, though, take a similar view of what has long been considered a decisive issue: the economy. Fully 77 percent in the survey rate the economy positively, a huge contrast with just about every survey taken between 2000 and 2016. Several months of 4 percent growth, considered impossible by some economists, has apparently been impossible to ignore.

But when asked their view of the direction of the nation "apart from the economy," the respondents revert to partisan type. White college women are especially negative, and white non-college men are solidly positive. Anyone whose personal acquaintance ranges across these groups can appreciate why one finds President Donald Trump repellent and the other congenial.

But there's a policy component, too. It's not that white college women are diehard Keynesians and white non-college men supply-siders. People tend to tailor their economic theories to partisan preference, not vice versa. But the economic policies of the last two administrations and concurrent trends have had -- and were intended to have -- very different effects on white college women and white non-college men.

Then-President Barack Obama's 2009 stimulus package was heavily tilted toward college women. As my American Enterprise Institute colleague Christina Hoff Sommers wrote in The Weekly Standard in June 2009, the Obama economic team's original idea was to finance infrastructure, construction and manufacturing, sectors that lost 3 million jobs from 2007-09.

But feminist groups objected. Obama economist Christina Romer, Sommers wrote, recalled that her first email "was from a women's group saying 'We don't want this stimulus package to just create jobs for burly men.'" So Obama ditched his "macho" stimulus plan for one stimulating creation of jobs in government, and especially in education and health care, which had gained 588,000 jobs during the 2007-09 recession. Forget the bridge building and electric grid modernization; let's subsidize more administrators, facilitators and liaisons.

The results were disappointing. Sputtering growth nudged up toward 3 percent and down toward zero, as it was during the last quarter of the Obama administration. Administrators outnumbered teachers in higher education but added little value. Government payrolls were temporarily sheltered from cuts. There was little recovery in blue-collar jobs, reduced life expectancy among downscale groups, opioid dependency and deaths. There were millions of men lingering on the disability rolls.

The trajectory of the economy -- and the beneficiaries -- seems different in the Trump presidency so far. Growth is more robust, obviously, though some economists thought this was impossible. And the biggest gains are, in contrast with the last 30 years, in blue-collar jobs and downscale earnings.

It's not clear there's a connection between these trends and Trump's policies and promises to make blue-collar America prosperous again. White House economic adviser Lawrence Kudlow argues that tax reform -- especially corporate tax cuts and 100 percent depreciation -- has stimulated capital spending on manufacturing and jobs for burly men. That's certainly plausible, though it's probably wise to wait and see whether the trend continues.

It's also possible that economic gains or losses have been less important than increases in people's feelings when they are earning respect. And their angry feelings when they feel they're not.

How does this affect next month's election? White college women's anger has given Democrats an edge in enthusiasm and money most of this cycle. White non-college men's apparently rising anger over Brett Kavanaugh's nomination and pride in Trump's economy have apparently given Republicans a late boost.

How much? White college turnout is overstated in polls, says The New York Times' Nate Cohn, and overanticipated by a white college-dominated media. The Republican boost's size -- and perhaps its existence -- is unclear. The Post poll puts Democrats up 4 percent in its 69 districts; the NBC News-Wall Street Journal poll has the parties even in the most competitive races. What looked like a Whole Foods blue wave for Democrats looks more like a narrow Democratic -- or maybe Republican -- House majority.


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2018midterms; barone; bluewave; elections; genderwars; malevote
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To: zerosix
Wonderful personal attack in place of rational response. Shame on you.

The women on this forum are considerably different then the bulk of women voters. Utterly absurd to ignore the facts about how women vote to go into a ridiculous diversionary rant about the women on this forum.

LOOK at the facts. Don't just go into knee jerk defending women mode and actually think about the problem.

Too many women are casting emotional ballots. They not voting for their best interests, they voting based on how the Dems make them FEEL.

21 posted on 10/26/2018 6:10:24 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (They would have to abandon leftism to achieve sanity. Freeper Olog-hai)
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To: papertyger; z3n

Yes, do tell.


22 posted on 10/26/2018 6:10:26 AM PDT by Wyrd bið ful aræd ( Flag burners can go screw -- I'm mighty PROUD of that ragged old flag)
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To: madison10

The gullible women that cried when hillary lost


23 posted on 10/26/2018 6:10:47 AM PDT by bert ((KE. N.P. N.C. +12) Invade Hondouras. Provide a military government)
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To: bert
Men operate on the perceived facts, while women operate on their perception of the facts and their feelings. This is why the MSMs are so keen to supply their slanted version of the facts to the various sections of the population so as to sway the consensus.

Stop the propaganda and present the facts (not feelings) and much of these divisions will resolve itself...

24 posted on 10/26/2018 6:11:16 AM PDT by Dubh_Ghlase
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To: Dubh_Ghlase

-—women operate on their perception of the facts and their feelings.-—

And then, they develop a consensus that protects them from screwing up and acting on their own in some manner outside the consnesus


25 posted on 10/26/2018 6:16:10 AM PDT by bert ((KE. N.P. N.C. +12) Invade Hondouras. Provide a military government)
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To: Kaslin

It really very simple

Men are biologically wired to want as little restriction as possible on their freedom

Women are biologically wired to want stability and safety.

GOP promises to leave you alone

Dems promise to take care of you.

For all the Feminist ranting, most women do not vote as “strong independent women”. Instead the vote for the Government to be their new daddy.


26 posted on 10/26/2018 6:16:26 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (They would have to abandon leftism to achieve sanity. Freeper Olog-hai)
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To: Gen.Blather

“College educated means college indoctrinated. If I had life to live over starting at this year, I would skip college even though I got an engineering degree.”

All one has to do to get an idea what “College educated” means in today’s world is watch Jessy Waters interviews on a college campus. Dumb as a box of hair!


27 posted on 10/26/2018 6:16:52 AM PDT by Beagle8U (Free Republic is one stop shopping...It's the super Walmart for news.)
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To: Kaslin

I’m hearing that in a certain highly contested senate race in the west the gap is 30. Men favor Rs by 30 points.


28 posted on 10/26/2018 6:20:42 AM PDT by LS ("Castles made of sand, fall in the sea . . . eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: bert

My husband’s 25 year old niece is one. She and her sister cried when Hillary lost, they went to a Hillary rally. Fortunately she does not drive, does not attend college or have a job, so there are not too many people she influences. Her younger sister has been taken in by the lie.


29 posted on 10/26/2018 6:23:25 AM PDT by madison10
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To: Kaslin

The female college graduates I know are republicans with few exceptions.


30 posted on 10/26/2018 6:23:54 AM PDT by xzins (Retired US Army chaplain. Support our troops by praying for their victory.)
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To: trebb
And the biggest gains are, in contrast with the last 30 years, in blue-collar jobs and downscale earnings.

IOW, the segement of the public which hold real jobs and do actual work, eh?

31 posted on 10/26/2018 6:26:38 AM PDT by Vigilanteman (ObaMao: Fake America, Fake Messiah, Fake Black man. How many fakes can you fit into one Zer0?)
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To: MNJohnnie
I do certainly agree on what you say about lots of women and I am the first to agree with anyone who observes that lots of women get their “facts” from women on The View or in the past, from Oprah.

However, I refuse to wear your mantle shame regarding “a personal attack.”

The fact is lots of men resent women in general because of their own personal experiences regarding rejection by a specific woman.

Perceptive and caring women recognize these kinds of blanket negative statements (and calling women “basically ignorant” certainly qualifies as such) about all women comeing from personal, hurt feelings.

32 posted on 10/26/2018 6:26:46 AM PDT by zerosix
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To: Kaslin

I just wonder if a poll like this is asking too general a question.

Are there times where someone says they disagree, without fail, everything about a person? In this case, President Trump.

Then you ask them specifics about the economy, immigration, taxes, schools, the rule of law, so on and so forth. And at the end of the interview you show them that they agree with everything that President Trump has done, is doing or wants to do. Then you ask them the original question again and this time they can’t answer it the same way.

Kind of like folks like Kirk, Crowder, and Dice do, when they approach folks, present them with something pretending it to be from one side or the other and then proving how wrong the people are and how it’s all just emotion and absolutely no critical thinking on their part.


33 posted on 10/26/2018 6:27:23 AM PDT by qaz123
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To: Wyrd bið ful aræd

Well admittedly the article was written with a political focus, on socially defined groups and their proclivities toward political party and this election, but I was speaking overall about socio-cultural and political awareness, and of the two groups highlighted as being on opposite sides of the party support ratio, college educated women and non college educated (burly) men, I would say from my own anecdotal experience that the former are more cognizant of social issues in general and even (maybe to a lesser contrast) politics and current events than the later group. I have worked in factories and warehouses, and I have been to college and worked with people the vast majority of which are degree holders, so again it’s very anecdotal I suppose, but those are my reasons. I’ve been in the factory lunch room where the guys (and that’s what they were, women weren’t excluded but did not apply) frequently brought up some current event or ranted about politics, but that was just conversation and rarely ever a focus. When Trump brings up a phrase ‘lockeroom talk’, I would contend that’s a real phenomenon. Boys will be boys. The current state of geopolitical affairs does not dominate.


34 posted on 10/26/2018 6:27:23 AM PDT by z3n
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To: Kaslin

Don’t sell white college-educated women short, especially not the group in college right now. The Lefties have been trying to make inroads in my college’s culture. They have started with Humanities before moving their efforts over to the Fine Arts building. Though there is no lack of liberals in either of these places there is a lack of hardcore leftists. Instead, there are liberal capitalists who seem aghast at the idea of people spending their lives being a trained monkey that produces a bunch of unsellable crap. Nobody wants to produce stuff that compares badly with refrigerator art, at least not on purpose ;)


35 posted on 10/26/2018 6:29:00 AM PDT by BlackAdderess (VOTE!!!!!!!!)
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To: zerosix

Thank you for proving my point.

You responded in 1 minute 38 seconds. Took barely enough time to read the post before you fired off a emotion based response. You could not even bother to THINK about the points made to you

Which is how too many women are voting. No thought, just an emotional respond to the Democrats campaigns manipulation of their emotions


36 posted on 10/26/2018 6:34:41 AM PDT by MNJohnnie (They would have to abandon leftism to achieve sanity. Freeper Olog-hai)
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To: Kaslin

‘White college women’s anger’

what the bleeping $%#@ do white college educated females have to be angry about...?


37 posted on 10/26/2018 6:38:19 AM PDT by IrishBrigade
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To: z3n

Thanks for you message about not stereotyping women. Note that the article was talking about college-educated women, not about all women.

The influence of indoctrination at the college level is so intense.

I have a very bright niece whose 3 sons went to university for engineering and math/science/IT subjects. All three came out liberals, and no longer attending church regularly. Hopefully they will gradually revert to more traditional thinking.

I was surprised this happened to them since they were not in social science classes.

Our university system is a hotbed of subversion, anti-God, and anti-Western values. The majority of women choose fields of study which emphasize psych, sociology and other non-objective subjects, making them all indoctrinated into leftists theories.

When I was in college I studied sciences as I was a Medical Technology major. 90% of my female classmates changed majors to education as they either could not pass the biology/chemistry and physics classes, or they decided it was not what they wanted.


38 posted on 10/26/2018 6:39:08 AM PDT by Gumdrop (24.)
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To: z3n

‘I would say women have their eyes open a lot more than guys do.’

ha ha ha...thanks for the laugh...


39 posted on 10/26/2018 6:43:24 AM PDT by IrishBrigade
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To: MNJohnnie

If going by my circle of friends and people I went to high school with, it is a very large percentage. We do have a large University in town so there are a lot of admin positions. Also, throw in everyone working in a non-profits subsidized by the Government too.


40 posted on 10/26/2018 6:52:07 AM PDT by ClayinVA ("Those who don't remember history are doomed to repeat it")
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