Posted on 10/20/2018 4:04:40 PM PDT by Ravi
2018 EARLY VOTING SO FAR:
"DEM" COUNTIES-22.0% OF VOTERS
"GOP" COUNTIES-78.0% OF VOTERS
2016 TOTALS (INCLUDES ALL VOTING):
"DEM" COUNTIES-22.3% OF VOTERS
"REP" COUNTIES-77.7% OF VOTERS
We are up to 346,130 early voters for 2018 (after only 3 days). Total turnout for 2016 was 2.5 million. We won't hit that of course. Turnout for 2014 (gov and senate race) was 1.4 million.
We will therefore be between 1.4 million and 2.5 million voters this year. Splitting the difference would make a gross estimate of turnout to be 2 million.
With 350,000 votes already cast, we are almost up to 20% of total turnout with ratios of Red and Blue counties casting ballots similar to 2016. Trump won by 26% then.
Blackburn won't win by 26% but this is tending towards blowout territory ASSUMING Bredesen doesn't have significant crossover support.
FYI.
https://www.nytimes.com/elections/2016/results/tennessee
https://tnsos.org/elections/ElectionData/20181106EarlyVotersDisplay.php
Bump
Bredesen won’t win. He’s too liberal for the state.
TN is quite different from when he was Governor.
Blackburn will win going away.
I don’t Bredesen getting crossover vote at all.
Republicans are doing better than normal, Dems are doing slightly worse than normal.
IF it was a big surge by dems within the republican district, you’d also see HUGE turnout in normal DEM counties, but you don’t see this.
Looking good, steady as she goes, I’m excited to see us expand our majority in the senate!
Old school Democrats and Blue Dogs were conservative.
They’re now extinct in the South.
Yes, they are extinct. Either died or they are Republicans now.
Blackburn will win. All the websites showing Tennessee as a tossup is demoralization propaganda.
What I want to know is how the early/absentee data trends are as a whole. It seems encouraging from what little I have aeen.
This is early voting and we can’t postulate from it what Election Day turnout will actually be like.
However, it looks more like a normal midterm year than the much hyped Blue Wave.
You are right it is hard to predict Election Day turnout.
But early voting in Knox County broke records on first day
of early voting.
The lines were long when I joined in.
Knox County is strong GOP turf.
Good news from Red States. Senate will be more GOP after November.
Whether the GOP holds the House depends on the mood of suburban voters.
Let’s hope that’s a favorable omen.
Follow LS. He keeps track of most everything...
It looks more like a Presidential turnout, not a normal midterm! Why are you so negative and blind to what is happening!
Thank you!
I don’t want to jinx it. Its better to play it safe.
NOT fond of early voting. Closer we get to election day the clearer it is to the Democrats how many more votes they need to manufacture.
Reference my post #19.......HOWEVER IF something happens because of this crap South de border it’s probably a good idea to get as many Republican votes as possible before the stuff hits the fan.
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