10/19/18: D-153,892 R-135,224 I-71,060 10/21/16: D-190,229 R-155,417 I-93,140
IA#1 (Blum-R) seat:
10/19/18: D-42,113 R-30,187 I-21,543 10/21/16: D-49,902 R-34,330 I-26,250
IA#2 (Loebsack-D) seat:
10/19/18: D-39,255 R-30,310 I-15,425 10/21/16: D-52,997 R-35,007 I-24,482
2016 IA#1: Blum won 53.9 to 46.1 2016 IA#2: Loebsack won 53.7 to 46.3
IA#1 absentee Requests seem mostly consistent from 2016 to 2018 with slightly larger Dem/Indy drop-off than Rep but not huge. However Blum won pretty comfortably in 2016 so he just needs to hold serve which he appears to be doing.
IA#2 is interesting but I just don't know hot much to read into the Requests but they are down significantly for the Dems/Indies and less so for GOP. jjotto feels IA#2 is a pipe-dream and he's probably right but still these numbers are a little eye-popping nonetheless.
Statewide looks good compared to 2016...for the governor's election I believe.
ping. Thoughts? Most Requests in Iowa are returned (over 90%).
Am mostly interested in the bottom line. Which stats indicate a GOP edge of what % points?
Looks pretty good for GOP in both districts. I wonder how many Ds voted GOP there, in the past elections. Go Trumpocrats!
Why use 2016 as the comparison, a Presidential year, versus 2014? That said, the turnout for 2018 appears to be huge.
This is like a guerilla war, blend in with the sheeple, but when it’s time to strike, VOTE !!!
If Lieawatha wins by less than ten percent in Massachusetts I’ll know it’s gonna be a long night for the RATS!
Independent ballot requests are up for the Statewide and Loebsack races.
Overall, Democrats seem to have steeper drop than Republicans in ballot requests from 2016, but have sought more ballots than Republicans in all races.
Not sure how much it matters, but early voting is a fairly recent addition to Iowa. Early votes are counted as absentee ballots.
I looked at it and it looks like Democrat count is out numbering Republican count
I believe in early ballots showing the Kavanaugh effect. Most were sent within a week of his confirmation fight so it was fresh on their mind. If we can maintain that on election day the blue wave will become just a ripple.
Just looking at the numbers, looks like drops from 16 to 18, but bigger drops for Ds than Rs. I’ll take that as a good trend.
Iowans don’t use early voting as much as other states. They prefer to vote on Election Day. Therefore any lead that isn’t 2 to 1 Democrat is not going to stand up. Hey take a deep breath and think. Trump won Iowa by 9 points and Iowans love him. Trump IS the real candidate in every election.