Posted on 10/15/2018 3:16:27 PM PDT by mandaladon
The key to voter enthusiasm in this midterm cycle may be the same as it is in real estate: Location, location, location. ABC News’ Rick Klein takes a look at the current generic-ballot polling from the latest Washington Post/ABC partnership and notes that the double-digit Democratic lead would normally spell curtains for the GOP. However, Klein points out that almost all of it comes in districts well in hand for Democrats — and that the battleground looks far different:
It could be even worse than that from the Democratic perspective. The WaPo/ABC generic ballot result is on the outer edge of the aggregation at RCP, where Democrats have a 7.3-point lead. It’s probably too much to call it an outlier, as Reuters and CNN both give Democrats similar leads, but most other recent polls put the difference in single digits. Rasmussen calls it a solid tie and IBD/TIPP has it at D+2, but most of the polls are in the D+6 -to- D+8 range.
Even going by the WaPo/ABC poll’s numbers, the results from the 66 battleground districts would tend to make it difficult for Democrats to win control of the House. They need a 23-seat flip, which means they’d have to win 45 of those seats in an aggregate R+1 environment. The redrawing of Pennsylvania’s congressional districts makes that easier, perhaps lowering the number of other seats to flip to 18 or so. But that still means they’d need to win 42 out of 66 seats in an environment that slightly favors Republicans. It’s not impossible, but it’s not the way I’d bet.
(Excerpt) Read more at hotair.com ...
I hope it is a red wave. The crying will be glorious to behold.
HOT DAMN
Why look at generic polls when specifics are out?
they start to post real result for the sake of reputation as pollster
Because generic polls are much easier to manipulate.
I did my part to stop the blue wave in Georgia. Voted early with enthusiasm!
The question was rhetorical...
And yours are true words
.
I doubt that the dems will take any GOP seats, and they definitely will lose several present Dem districts.
America has had enough.
The riots and the cries of ‘cheating’ illegitimate, etc will pretty much suck however.
I am getting a sense of deja vu like it is 2016. The signs are out there-- rising minority support, full venues for The Donald, etc...
Lesee, someone around here has been sayin’ this and sayin’ this . . . .
I’ve pretty much decided to GOTV here in Maryland.
At least, I can vote to reelect Andy Harris and give a vote to Tony Campbell who’s running against Cardin.
In good conscience, I believe I will just not vote for governor. I cannot reward Hogan for being against everything my President stands for and I definitely won’t vote for Ben Jealous, a progressive socialist.
BTW, I did not vote for Hogan the first time and his popularity baffles me, especially when Baltimore is still a disaster and even my county has become more crime-ridden as well under his tenure.
Praying that we will all be celebrating a RED TSUNAMI three weeks from tomorrow.
I can’t stand McSally, but the wife and me voted for her.
The coattails lenghten...the Trump Train picks up speed.
MAGA.
I doubt there will be a red wave, but there definitely won’t be a blue one.
Democrats will likely gain a few seats in the House and the GOP will likely gain several seats in the Senate.
Good reporting. I thank you.
Polling for some districts is not available.
Theoretically the margin of error for a set of districts is smaller than that of a single district.
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