Posted on 10/10/2018 5:56:14 AM PDT by PJ-Comix
Wednesday, October 10, 2018
With less than a month to Election Day, the Generic Congressional Ballot is now dead even.
The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone and online survey finds that 45% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose the Democratic candidate if the elections for Congress were held today. Another 45% would opt for the Republican. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Last week, 47% of voters said they would choose the Democratic candidate while 42% said they would choose the Republican. It is unclear whether the sudden jump to a tie vote is a reflection of the anger surrounding the Kavanaugh confirmation process, but we will continue to watch this in the weeks ahead.
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Yeah they probably did.
I think you are right. They will riot, as they usually do, when they don’t get their way. That is the way that communist usually operate.
You’re probably right. If they’d run with that Ford letter they’d likely throw ANYTHING at the wall to see if it sticks.
We need to get out and vote. Always fight till the enemy is crushed.
There never was a blue wave.
Didn’t I hear somewhere that in order for a blue wave to occur the Democrats needed at least a 7 point lead or so in the Generic Ballot?
I drive through downtown Minneapolis everyday. There is a sign on a building that says VOTE HERE. Been there maybe a month. They have parking places blocked off for voters. Must be one of them VOTE EARLY VOTE OFTEN places. I will have to look at it more carefully today to see what it really is.
That gap has hovered in the 6 to 10-point range in recent weeks.
But Democratic voters tend to live in more concentrated areas and the party would typically needs a more significant advantage in the generic ballot number than do Republicans, whose voters are spread through more exurban and rural districts.
>Democrats need a higher share of the midterm vote to win a majority of seats, in other words, than do Republicans.
In 2014, when Democrats led the generic ballot in both CNN and NBC/WSJ surveys by only slim margins, Republicans ended up winning 13 Democratic-held seats.
>The last time Democrats gained significantly, in 2006, the party held a 15-point advantage in both surveys.
By contrast, Republicans enjoyed a generic ballot advantage of between two and six points in late October 2010, according to CNN and NBC/Wall Street Journal polls, but that narrow edge still resulted in the 63-seat gain..
Generic Ballot at “even” basically means the GOP is likely controlling the house... due to the make up fo congressional districts....
Dem districts are generally more heavily weighed DEM while Republican districts are typically less heavily weighed Republican... meaning if the electorate were to vote straight along party lines at a 50-50 split the GOP wins more seats.
I hate using the generic polling on congressional elections because it ignores fundamental things at individual district levels, but if you are looking at what this would mean SHOULD the country regardless of their individual district dynamics vote 50-50... the GOP keeps control of the house....
And historically even when the GOP is below 50/50 on this question they control the house, at 50/50 historically, all other things being equal (which the never ara) GOP should be expected to hold the house with a very solid majority... meaning they may gain seats.
I don’t get why the left think that publicizing favorable (to them)
polling results will energize their voters.
No, it’s raining Barry.
Exactly party distribution matters... Dems have huge depth in very limited geography, while GOP enjoys good depth over a very broad area.. a true 50-50 vote split mathionally, means the GOP holds the house and by a solid majority.
I am not a huge fan of the generic ballot polling, as it ignores completely what is going on in the individual districts... but historically you can draw some general conclusions.
Bump!
Possibly even more important is to contribute, and contribute HEAVILY. Right now the NRCC and the NRSC are running for to one match programs where every dollar each of us directly contributes is matched with another four dollars. Thus, if one of us gives $100 to either, that $100 will be matched with another $400, for a total impact of $500. If you're not on the email list for those offers, go to the website for either the NRCC or the NRSC, make a contribution, and give them your email address. That should get you on the high impact list. It's ABSOLUTELY VITAL that we ALL do this.
Thanks Arthur Wildfire! March.
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