Posted on 09/29/2018 2:36:24 PM PDT by oblomov
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Its a thrilling autumn for British and US liberals. The UKs Conservative party is so mishandling Brexit that the whole thing might never happen. American liberals already uncharacteristically energised for Novembers midterm elections are rooting for the torpedoing of Brett Kavanaugh, still, at the time of writing, Donald Trumps nominee for the Supreme Court. Meanwhile, liberal NGOs raise fortunes while newspapers pile on subscribers. The liberal dream is that Anglosphere populism an old peoples movement will fade away.
But we may be hitting peak liberal resistance. Its still very likely that Brexit happens next March, and highly plausible that Trump will get re-elected in 2020. Longer term, it could be the liberals who fade away, to populist cries of good riddance. In this scenario, the urban educated class abandons politics, just as the white working class did in previous decades.
Brexit is likely to happen because the leaders of both main British parties intend to deliver it. Either Britain strikes a deal on the EUs terms, or it initially gets no deal, but then probably crawls back to Brussels and agrees to whatever the Europeans are willing to offer.
Trump, despite his unpopularity, could easily win in 2020. If the economy is still growing by then, the 11-year expansion would be the longest ever measured in the US. Democrats could win the most populous liberal states of California, New York and Massachusetts by even larger margins than in 2016, piling up millions more essentially useless votes, and still lose the electoral college (while Republicans in swing states such as Wisconsin and Georgia suppress minority votes). Meanwhile, Trump will see either Kavanaugh or another conservative justice confirmed, and possibly others, too, given the ages of liberal justices Ruth Bader Ginsburg (85) and Stephen Breyer (80). Then the Supreme Court would be reliably conservative for decades.
There is such a thing as stable long-term extreme nationalist rule. Hungarys prime minister, Viktor Orbán, in office since 2010, won another four-year term this spring. Benjamin Netanyahu has governed Israel since 2009, while the liberal secular left has collapsed. Polands PiS government looks set for re-election next year. Extreme nationalism in these countries is self-reinforcing, because urban liberals are emigrating. Hungary in particular is exporting the highly educated, feminists, gay people, NGO staff, cultural workers and Jews. The ageing country suffers a net loss of one inhabitant every 16 minutes, notes Cas Mudde, scholar of populism at the University of Georgia. Ironically, the émigrés remittances along with subsidies from Orbáns hated EU help keep the Hungarian economy going.
If Trump and the Brexiters can find the competence to establish long-term populism, liberal Britons and Americans will have to choose a response. Most will stay put. In 2016, over a quarter of Americans polled by Vox said they would consider moving to Canada if Trump won, but in the event hardly anyone left. It turns out that well-off urban liberals (unlike, say, poor Hispanics) can live well under Trump. They are on the right side of rising US inequality. As one rich New Yorker told me: If people in red states want to give me a big tax cut, I didnt vote for it, but Ill take it. Moreover, being anti-Trump gives liberals a purpose in life, a common identity and the perfect neighbourhood conversation-starter. They are feeling bad about the US but good about themselves.
British urban liberals will suffer relatively more from Brexit. If freedom of movement with Europe ends, their passports will be downgraded. Brexit will also devalue one of their favourite career paths, the civil service: the fresh graduates who traditionally flood into Whitehall each year are exactly the cohort who despise Brexit and wont want to spend years trying to make it work. Still, educated people will continue to find good jobs in London.
But they risk being politically sidelined post-Brexit. Liberal debates in universities, media, political parties and think-tanks will feel irrelevant. Former centre-left politicians will migrate to TV shows such as Strictly Come Dancing, or make money consulting businesses on how to navigate Brexit.
If Trump and Brexit establish themselves, educated urban liberals will go into internal exile, cultivating their roof gardens, getting their kids into the right schools, hunting for the perfect coffee and doing the odd spot of local activism for bike lanes, say. They will detach from populist relatives in the heartland, and, gradually, from a sense of shared nationhood. Not my government, will be the attitude. If the Supreme Court allows red states to drive out abortion, that wont affect New York or San Francisco.
Urban liberals across continental Europe led similarly comfortable, apolitical lives before 1848; their Chinese and Russian peers lead them now. I saw it in Moscow this summer: the liberal elite gets its playground (hipster cafés and roller-skating in Gorky Park) and is allowed to prosper on condition it doesnt get political. I saw an earlier version of this on childhood visits to my grandparents in apartheid South Africa: urban liberals sat around their swimming pools mocking the government that privileged them, while black maids served cake. Its a surprisingly sustainable way of life.
There's a LOT more they want to do.
Fine with me, we have all the guns.
Hypocrite.
“We ain’t seen nothing yet.”
Bingo!!!
Liberal scu&bags should never be underestimated or considered to be out of tricks.
There are no bounds to their treachery and no limits to their perfidy.
IMHO
They indoctrinate them through public education and universities.
(while Republicans in swing states such as Wisconsin and Georgia suppress minority votes)
BULLSHIT!
Correct. Peak liberal and Marxist "resistance" will be violence, riots, and murders.
Correct. It is going to take a part physical war to succumb. Would it not be better to begin it now rather than later?
Trump will set up for Pence to folow him, but like Reagan set up things for Bush. Reagan almost singlehandidly destroyed the Democrat party. Trump is doing the same.
If Pence doesn't screw up. we'll have 14 more years to change the Supreme Court and other courts. This is key to the survival of the USA.
Once the court system is restored (after Ginsburg, it will be 6-3 Conservative), Trump can start working on the Education system and reforming the media. The media should not be the propaganda branch of the Democrat party.
Nope. Expect violence and intimidation leading right up to and through Election Day. Won’t matter how many crimes will have been committed, just as long as the liberals have control of Congress.
“...literally spitting their angry, often illogical retort.”
The word often implies that in some cases they may give a logical retort. When does a liberal ever say something logical?
I stopped reading when I read this...
“Trump, despite his unpopularity, “
DAMN! Why can't we do this?
Who else can bring out 10,000 supporters in any given city like Trump? Unpopular? I don’t think so.
Ummm.... no.
Study pre-WWII; it will be like pre-WWII.
Nope. IMHO, the libs are just getting started. They are ramping up to civil resistance (some would say they are there :).
What are we gonna do about it?
Gotta love Liz's tag line: "Our side has 8 trillion bullets; the other side doesn't know which bathroom to use."
Lotta truth there. Let's go! Libs aren't gonna stop on their own.
No.
They haven’t started shooting yet.
In fact, they’re trying to provoke us into shooting so they can bring in Law Enforcement and he military on their side.
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