Posted on 09/25/2018 9:48:36 AM PDT by lasereye
Republican Rep. Dave Brat is trailing Democrat Abigail Spanberger by five points in a Virginia district that hasn't sent a Democrat to the House in more than 45 years, according to a new poll.
Spanberger has the support of 47 percent of potential voters, compared to Brat's 42 percent, according to a Monmouth University survey released Tuesday. Spangberger's lead is just outside the poll's margin of error, which is 4.9 percentage points.
Virginia's 7th Congressional District used to be solidly red, but courts forced the state to redraw it shortly after Brat was elected in 2014 following a shocking GOP primary defeat of then-House Majority Leader Eric Cantor. President Trump won the district by 6 points in 2016.
Spangberger's lead in the new poll comes from support in Chesterfield County and Henrico County, two Richmond suburbs. Brat leads by 22 points, 57 percent to 35 percent, in the other parts of the district, according to the poll.
Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, called the race a "tale of two districts."
"The Richmond suburbs that backed Clinton in 2016 support Spanberger while the Trump strongholds are firmly behind Brat," he said. "The reason this race is so close right now is because there are more voters in the suburban areas."
The poll's results are based on interviews with 400 potential voters in the district from Sept. 15 to 24.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the race as a "toss-up." FiveThirtyEight gives Brat about a 70 percent chance to win his reelection bid.
Not this far out, it is meaningless.
This far out? Absentee voting has already started in some places. Election day is just a little more than a month away.
I just sent him a campaign contribution. I’ll probably send some more in the next couple weeks.
‘Given their accuracy in 2016 I was thinking that could be bad news.’
538 wasn’t that off as all of you seem to think; in the final three weeks Silver picked up the Trump surge to the extent he gave him a 40 percent chance of winning, compared to single digits in August; his followers were grilling his ass about it in the comments...though nothing like the raking they gave him after the election...
Brat signs have just started showing up in the last two weeks, I would say - lots of large signs (street corners, etc.). Spanberger signs have been up on people’s lawns for the last two months, at least. Brat is VERY active in the community - attends several events a weekend, so he is out shaking hands & rubbing elbows with his constituents. He also visits a lot of businesses (owners & employees), most of whom if not all are doing much better in the Trump economy. TV Ads are also starting to run for Brat and he’s got ‘walkers’ out in neighborhoods going door to door. I think he’s getting his campaign kicked into gear now & that would be just as this poll was taken so he could be somewhat stronger than what the poll is showing. Lots of libs in his district (which I believe has changed some since the last election) and the comments on his facebook page from the Left are just the absolute vilest, nasty stuff. Brat has been fabulous in representing his constituents so far and I hope most decent folks will recognize that and re-elect him. I’m sure his seat has been targeted by the Dems.
Don’t forget: Monmouth was one of the pollsters, as I recall, who asked for the “youngest voter in the home.” (!!)
Utter BS poll. GOP thinks Brat pretty safe. Comstock, perhaps not.
Bull shit try again.
Also for historical reference, Clinton won the popular vote by 4%, so that Monmouth poll was within their margin of error, though it was also one of the worst polls (leaning more towards Clinton than others).
Sure hate to see Brat defeated. But it is VA, where liberalism is on the march.
Well done, lasereye!
NYT polling has Brat hanging in there.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-polls.html
in fact, all the Repubs in true tossup districts are hanging in there. In fact most are leading narrowly.
I like the way the NYT Sienna polling is done. They are disclosing a lot about the impact of various turnout scenarios on their estimates.
Among likely voters, it is a tie...
47 to 47.
Lots of northeastern liberals moved here from NJ, NY, CT, MA voting to turn VA into the mess they left behind.
Brat is one of the best .
Period.
Oh look, Spanberger is CIA. And a Democrat... another Valerie Plame type, no doubt.
Does anyone think it odd that there are so many political CIA types?
And she’s a gungrabber type... of course.
ping
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