Posted on 09/21/2018 2:08:38 PM PDT by yesthatjallen
The undocumented population in the United States could be twice as large as the most commonly-used estimate, according to a research study published Friday in the scientific journal Plos One.
The paper, led by Mohammad M. Fazel-Zarandi, a researcher at Yale and Massachusetts Institute of Technology, estimates there are 22.1 million undocumented immigrants in the United States.
Fazel-Zarandi's study compared inflows and outflows of immigrants as well as demographic data. According to the report, the number of undocumented immigrants could be as low as 16.5 million, or as high as 29.1 million.
“We combined these data using a demographic model that follows a very simple logic,” Edward Kaplan, a co-author of the report, told Yale Insights. “The population today is equal to the initial population plus everyone who came in minus everyone who went out. It’s that simple.”
Most previous estimates, based on the U.S. Census Bureau's annual American Community Survey (ACS), place the undocumented population at around 11 million people.
The ACS is generated annually through interviews with about 3.5 million people.
"You find it’s based on one very specific survey and possibly an approach that has some difficulties. So we went in and just took a very different approach," Jonathan Feinstein, another co-author, told Yale Insights.
Still, the new study found similarities in growth patterns of the undocumented population to the ACS reports of the past two decades.
Most immigration researchers have reported a plateau in growth of that population since 2007, spurred mainly by the decrease in Mexican illegal immigration to the United States.
The reduction in illegal crossings by Mexican citizens coincided with an increase in illegal immigration from Central America and Asia. But the overall undocumented population has leveled off, and possibly slightly decreased.
The Pew Research Center, which provides regular updates on immigration statistics -- based in part on ACS numbers -- estimated last year that the undocumented population dropped to 11.3 million from a high of 12.2 million.
The Yale study, which goes as far back as 1990, found the same upward and downward trajectory as the ACS studies, with the undocumented population ballooning through the 1990s and plateauing after 2007.
"“The trajectory is the same. We see the same patterns happening, but they’re just understating the actual number of people who have made it here,” said Fazel‐Zarandi.
The researchers emphasized the new number does not imply a growth in illegal immigration but a longstanding miscount of existing undocumented immigrants.
"We wouldn’t want people to walk away from this research thinking that suddenly there’s a large influx happening now,” said Feinstein. “It’s really something that happened in the past and maybe was not properly counted or documented.”
The researchers also noted if the undocumented population is twice as high as previous estimates, that means the incidence of criminality among undocumented immigrants is half as high as previously reported.
"You have the same number of crimes but now spread over twice as many people as was believed before, which right away means that the crime rate among undocumented immigrants is essentially half whatever was previously believed," said Kaplan.
More.
Yes, and millions of them vote.
It’s so obvious.
Deport them ALL. These illegal alien invaders deserve no quarter...no consideration. End every penny of welfare of any sort to them.
I think ALL 30 million are right here in CA.
66 million U.S. residents ages 5 and older — 21.6 percent of that population — speak a language other than English at home.
I have heard the same numbers from the 1980’s onward.
You can check SSN’s to those getting a paycheck.
Number of living vs dead and how many dead still using the number like obama who uses a dead man’s ssn so you know he is an illegal.
I’d believe 33 million, but I wouldn’t go so far as 44 million. That would be pushing it, IMO...
The “11 million” number has been around for decades. It is more like 50 million.
But most AMERICANS already knew this.
Living in San Diego...for 25 years.
Last week I took my boy to Taco Bell in Encinitas which is just 10 miles north on the coast.
There was not ONE employee in the entire fast food restaurant that spoke English, not a word..... NOT EVEN ONE.
Had to order by pointing at the overhead menu board.
First I have seen this in that it was a TOTAL non English fast food place.......but know it will soon be the norm here.
We retire in 6 years....already looking property in Traverse City Michigan Area.
America, where have you gone?
Well, 4-8 million illegal democrat voters (er, illegal aliens) is about right. But they are followed by another 12 million illegal aliens already present here, and all of those are followed by another 12 million locally-born, now-US residents-for-welfare-and-schools-and-healthcare-and-EIB-and-ETC CHILDREN of the illegal aliens already here.!
Bump
The new estimate is still short by 20 million or more.
However, Hannity will continue to mindlessly quote the 11 million figure.
Deport them all. No exceptions for illegals. Make that our policy and most will go home on their own to avoid losing their property and being fined the costs of deportation at government rates. Three million p0er year, and we’ll get most of the way there in President Trump’s six years.
HI RD, it is a crying shame what has happened to this state!!! I am taking care of an elderly parent at this time who would NEVER leave CA. HOWEVER as soon as my mom passes, she is 90, I am transferring with the company I work for and I am the HELL out of here!!! I am SICK TO DEATH of having to speak Spanish in MY OWN DAMNED COUNTRY!!! I am sick of Mexican flags waving in the streets DEMANDING their rights!! I am sick to death of kids in THIS STATE being told they can’t wear a T-shirt with an American flag on it because it might OFFEND someone!!! Open border policies have destroyed a beautiful state of which Ronald Reagan was once the governor!!!
Hannity needs to live in AZ. and CA. for awhile he WILL change his numbers FAST!!!
I have long believed that LA County alone has 11 million, and the real number is somewhere in the neighborhood of 45-50 million.
I have NO idea, but the decades long 12 number seems YUGELY low.
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