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Hurricane Florence Live Thread II
NHC/NOAA ^ | 12 September 2018 | NHC/NOAA

Posted on 09/12/2018 1:53:29 PM PDT by NautiNurse

The National Hurricane Center has been issuing advisories for Hurricane Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here. As the super-size storm named Florence approached the U.S. Atlantic Coast, stories abound of people who are refusing to evacuate barrier islands.

The 82nd Airborne has relocated all of its assets, while FEMA is using Fort Bragg as a major staging area for post-storm supplies, including meals, water and cots. Fort Jackson (Columbia SC) has cancelled events including basic training graduation to prepare for military and civilian evacuees from coastal locations.

While hurricane preparations are rushed to completion, some stores are closing for lack of hurricane supplies inventory. Smart phone app Gas Buddy provides updates for gasoline availability along evacuation routes.

Wave heights to 83 ft. were recorded while Hurricane Florence churned 435 miles from Wilmington, NC. Storm surge is predicted to reach 6-13 ft along the coastline to the N of landfall. Steering currents are forecast to collapse at or near landfall, resulting in Florence meandering for days. This is expected to result in up to 40 inches of rainfall in isolated areas in the Carolinas, and up to a foot of rain in the Appalachian Mountains.

Tropical Storm Isaac: The government of France has issued Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches for the Lesser Antilles.

Invest 95L: The National Hurricane Center predicts 70% chance of development in the Gulf of Mexico. Limited forecast models, satellite graphics and GOM buoy info are available for Invest 95L below.

Mash the graphics below to enlarge. All links and images are self-updating.

Hurricane Florence Isaac Invest 95L
No Forecast Cone for Invest 95L
at publication deadline

Florence Public Advisory Isaac Public Advisory
Florence Forecast Discussion Isaac Forecast Discussion
Buoy/Observations near Florence Buoy/Observations near Isaac Buoys Western GOM

National Data Buoy Center

Local Weather:
Norfolk VA
Morehead City NC
Raleigh NC
Fayetteville NC
Wilmington NC
Charleston SC/Savannah GA
Jacksonville FL
San Juan PR

Hurricane Florence & Isaac Thread I



TOPICS: Breaking News; Extended News; Front Page News; News/Current Events; US: North Carolina; US: South Carolina
KEYWORDS: braking; florence; hurricane; hurricaneflorence; hurricaneflorenceii; isaac; nautinurse; tropical
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To: Red Badger

That satellite image is dated Sept. 8.


241 posted on 09/13/2018 8:10:42 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Do not make me pay Ferrari prices for Chevy Vega health insurance.)
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To: KC Burke

I’d hate to be that house at the end of the street.


242 posted on 09/13/2018 8:12:48 AM PDT by HollyB
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To: KC Burke

Media alphabet soup are all anxious to use the video in their broadcasts.


243 posted on 09/13/2018 8:14:44 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Do not make me pay Ferrari prices for Chevy Vega health insurance.)
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To: HollyB

I think it will get dicy for the barrier islands south of this.


244 posted on 09/13/2018 8:14:47 AM PDT by KC Burke (If all the world is a stage, I would like to request my lighting be adjusted.)
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To: NautiNurse

Wind speed still dropping.


245 posted on 09/13/2018 8:15:33 AM PDT by PJ-Comix (The FBI recommends you do your fishing with an OCONUS lure)
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To: Mama25

So much for those sand bags.


246 posted on 09/13/2018 8:16:58 AM PDT by HollyB
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To: jeffers
This is where tornadic potential STARTS to be a factor on the NROT plot.

Shear couplets look like this in the derived data, but, at least with supercells, you need greater gate to gate velocities before it even begins to put one down. Yellow (or red) concentric w blue, and much brighter greens.

 photo 1112 NROT Threshold.jpg

This is well offshore, and staying offshore, just a possible indicator of things to come.
247 posted on 09/13/2018 8:18:15 AM PDT by jeffers
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To: jeffers

PS, that section is at 4100’ ASL, 24 NM from the freeway crossing in Wilmington. At least a coupla hours before the parent band comes ashore.


248 posted on 09/13/2018 8:21:39 AM PDT by jeffers
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To: NautiNurse
My main concern with this storm now is that it is yet another STORM OF THE CENTURY that has been over-hyped by the bozos at Weather Channel and TV Networks.

That is not to say this is not a total disaster in the making and that everyone in the path should get out. It is and they should as with any Hurricane approaching a coastline.

The problem is that now every storm is going to SCOUR THE COAST and FLATTEN EVERYTHING FOR MILLIONS OF MILES!!!!!!

The truth is that EPIC land altering storms (Camille, Andrew, Katrina) come every 20 or so years.

All storms cause massive damage in some way, and anyone near the coast should get out no matter what strength the storm is, but this hyperventilating WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE hype need to stop. And it need to stop because it is going to cause people to start ignoring the warnings because "every time they say this and every time we all panic and all that happens is it weakens right before landfall". AND THEY ARE GOING TO STOP EVACUATING! and then the real monster storm will hit.

249 posted on 09/13/2018 8:22:22 AM PDT by commish (Freedom tastes Sweetest to those who have fought to preserve it!)
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To: commish

Hi old timer...

The hype from the major networks is worse if anything. I think the Weather Channel is slightly less than previous years. Just my two cents.


250 posted on 09/13/2018 8:25:04 AM PDT by KC Burke (If all the world is a stage, I would like to request my lighting be adjusted.)
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To: PJ-Comix
1100 NHC discussion:
Florence is currently approaching the Gulfstream current, and the
hurricane is forecast to move over warmer and deeper waters in 6-12
hours, which could allow for some slight strengthening. Just prior to
landfall in about 24 hours, Florence is expected to weaken some due to
upwelling of the shallow coastal waters. After landfall occurs, rapid
weaning of the stronger inner-core wind field is expected to due land
interaction and Florence's slow forward speed of 5 kt or less. However,
intense rainbands are expected to develop over the Atlantic waters and
keep moving along the coast and inland, likely producing strong wind
gusts through Saturday night.

251 posted on 09/13/2018 8:25:06 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Do not make me pay Ferrari prices for Chevy Vega health insurance.)
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To: NautiNurse

I like this stuff we are getting out of the new GEOS-17 feed

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-17&sec=full_disk&x=13444&y=4156.5&z=5&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=7&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider


252 posted on 09/13/2018 8:25:52 AM PDT by KC Burke (If all the world is a stage, I would like to request my lighting be adjusted.)
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To: NautiNurse

Measured forward speed of eye center, since 1408z (1008 EDT), 10.54 NM/hr at 306 degrees.


253 posted on 09/13/2018 8:30:08 AM PDT by jeffers
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To: MplsSteve
I’m not sure what factors are sapping its strength in that its been downgraded from a Cat 4 to a Cat 2

We finally have a President who knows what he's doing.

254 posted on 09/13/2018 8:31:06 AM PDT by Jim Noble
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To: commish
While I don't tune in much to the televised weather talking heads, the emphasis for Florence has been on storm surge and fresh water flooding from unrelenting rain. Destructive winds have not been front and center.

The cumulative destructive effects from this slow moving storm will magnify over days as the storm creeps along.

255 posted on 09/13/2018 8:33:41 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Do not make me pay Ferrari prices for Chevy Vega health insurance.)
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To: jeffers
Sized for speed and legibility:

 photo 1131 TW.jpg
256 posted on 09/13/2018 8:34:29 AM PDT by jeffers
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To: KC Burke

The storm is sucking in dry air.


257 posted on 09/13/2018 8:35:04 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Do not make me pay Ferrari prices for Chevy Vega health insurance.)
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To: NautiNurse

Judges?


258 posted on 09/13/2018 8:36:42 AM PDT by goosie
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To: jeffers
 photo 1136 TW NROT.jpg
259 posted on 09/13/2018 8:38:22 AM PDT by jeffers
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To: commish

Good points by Bastardi

so which is a worse storm, one with 115 mph 10 miles wide or one with 100 mph winds extending out 75-100 miles?


260 posted on 09/13/2018 8:38:24 AM PDT by HollyB
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