Posted on 09/09/2018 8:01:18 AM PDT by NautiNurse
September 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season, and the conga line of storms dancing across the Atlantic is not disappointing historical data. The Governors of NC and SC have declared states of emergency for a potential major hurricane landfall, while Hurricane Florence is slowly creeping westward. Florence is predicted to increase forward motion and intensity Monday. Hurricanes Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989) are two notorious major hurricanes to make landfall in NC and SC, respectively. North Carolina has prior experience with "F" named hurricanes. Hurricanes Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) caused widespread flooding and damage in the Tar Heel state.
The NHC has been issuing Public Advisories for Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here.
Isaac is a small storm. Isaac is predicted to steadily strengthen during the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and in a low wind shear environment in the short term. The NHC predicts Isaac will reach hurricane status within 2 days.
Helene is expected to reach hurricane status in the short term. However, Helene is not anticipated to threaten U.S. interests. The forecast track turns north into the mid-Atlantic.
Click on the images below to enlarge
Looks like a slow motion splatter of mixed paint being poured out.
The gaping jaws of hell.
I rode along the highway in the background 3 years later. All that was left of the motels across the road from the beach were sets of concrete steps from the road up a slight bluff, swimming pools and concrete slabs.
Ocracoke goes underwater every time there’s a nor’easter.
Notice that this has nothing to do with Florence. It is more likely associated with the remnants of Gordon:
Keep Roanoke and surrounding towns in your prayers, please. This occurred last night.
NC and SC governors declared a state of emergency a few days ago.
Gordon is BEFORE Florence?
.
There are high odds that most of the 200 people who stayed on Ocracoke are hard core “bankers” whose families go back for generations on the island.
If anyone knows how to survive a 9-13’ storm surge, it’s those people.
"The core is definitely struggling. It looks like some SW shear is impacting the storm, and it has not been able to recover from this morning's eyewall replacement cycle. Most likely scenario is the hurricane will fluctuate between 115 - 130 mph winds for the next day, then weaken to 100 - 110 mph (Cat 2) by Thursday night and Friday morning, when it will be very near the NC/SC coast."
Gordon was a Gulf Coast storm that then tracked through the area.
Virginia has been bedeviled by rain since last week.
Wow! I heard the rains in PA over the weekend were due to Gordon remnants. Can’t imagine the situation when big bad Flo reaches the shoreline. Roanoke VA is such a beautiful area.
Thank you.
.
That is some good news for surge and wind damage. Not sure that it lessens the fresh water flooding while it meanders.
Which is why The Weather Channel is positioned here to report on the potential for “catastrophic inland flooding”, here.
As folks can see from the news article, the area is already prone to flooding from previous rain. At least now they’ve downgraded the projected rainfall totals, at least for now.
it may be just a pulse but the past 90 minutes or so it looks a little better...is a smaller eyewall redeveloping?
time will tell
Overlooked is just what all these storms mean. Global warming? Heck no, sea surface temperatures are not abnormally high. The storms indicate a colder upper atmosphere which increases oceanic convection due to greater temperature differential between the air and the ocean. More convection = more storms.
IOW, it’s gonna be one heck of a cold winter.
It depends upon the width of the windfield as to how much surge is generated. Ike was ‘just’ a Cat 2 at landfall. These repeated eyewall replacement cycles have expanded the windfield significantly.
Dear God, that’s madness.
Eye seems to be contracting but I’ve given up predicting eye development with this storm.
And just like that:
Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft along with
satellite imagery and various intensity estimates indicate that
Florence has weakened instead of strengthening. However, while the
hurricane hasn’t strengthened in terms of peak winds, the inner-core
and outer wind fields have continued to expand, resulting in an
increase the cyclone’s total energy, which will create a significant
storm surge event. The upper-level outflow remains impressive and is
still expanding except toward the south.
Florence is moving toward the northwest or 315/14 kt. The new 12Z
global and regional model runs have come into much better agreement
on Florence moving steadily northwestward around a strong ridge
located between Bermuda and the U.S. mid-Atlantic region for the
next 48 hours or so. By late on day 2, Florence is forecast to
approach the southern portion of the North Carolina coast, then slow
down considerably and turn westward within collapsing steering flow,
with a very slow westward motion near the coasts of North and South
Carolina continuing into Friday and Saturday. Corrected-consensus
models HCCA and FSSE remain very close to each other and are quite
similar to the simple consensus model TVCA. Therefore, only a slight
eastward shift was needed to the previous forecast track through 36
hours or so, mainly due to the more eastward initial position based
on the reconnaissance fixes. At 48 hours and beyond, no significant
changes were required to the previous advisory track, which still
shows Florence moving slowly westward across South Carolina and
western North Carolina on day 4, followed by a slow northward motion
up the Appalachian mountain chain on day 5.
A narrow window of opportunity remains during the next 24 hours or
so for Florence to strengthen a little when the hurricane passes
over the warmer SSTs and deeper warm water/higher upper-ocean heat
content associated with the Gulf Stream, and low vertical shear
conditions of 5-10 kt will aid in any strengthening process.
However, significant strengthening is not anticipated due to
Florence’s large and expanding inner-core wind field. By 36 h
and beyond, decreasing ocean heat content along with the slowing
forward speed of Florence will likely produce cold upwelling beneath
the hurricane, inducing a gradual weakening trend. When Florence
moves over the shallow coastal shelf waters in 48-72 h, land
interaction and more significant upwelling are anticipated, which
should further enhance the weakening process. The NHC intensity
forecast remains near the higher statistical guidance through 48
hours, then follows the trend of the decay SHIPS model after that
time.
Although the maximum winds are expected to weaken a little more,
Florence is still expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane as
it approaches the coast. The threat to life from storm surge and
rainfall will not diminish, and these impacts will cover a large
area regardless of exactly where the center of Florence moves.
Key Messages:
1. A life-threatening storm surge is now highly likely along
portions of the coastlines of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
a Storm Surge Warning is in effect for a portion of this area. All
interests in these areas should complete preparations and follow any
advice given by local officials.
2. Life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged
significant river flooding are likely over portions of the Carolinas
and the southern and central Appalachians late this week into early
next week, as Florence is expected to slow down as it approaches the
coast and moves inland.
3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Warning
is in effect. Strong winds could also spread inland into portions
of the Carolinas.
4. Large swells affecting Bermuda, portions of the U.S. East
Coast, and the northwestern and central Bahamas will continue this
week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 30.9N 72.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 32.1N 74.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 33.4N 75.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 33.9N 77.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 34.0N 77.9W 100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 15/1800Z 33.6N 79.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
96H 16/1800Z 34.0N 81.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/1800Z 35.6N 83.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
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