Posted on 09/09/2018 8:01:18 AM PDT by NautiNurse
September 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season, and the conga line of storms dancing across the Atlantic is not disappointing historical data. The Governors of NC and SC have declared states of emergency for a potential major hurricane landfall, while Hurricane Florence is slowly creeping westward. Florence is predicted to increase forward motion and intensity Monday. Hurricanes Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989) are two notorious major hurricanes to make landfall in NC and SC, respectively. North Carolina has prior experience with "F" named hurricanes. Hurricanes Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) caused widespread flooding and damage in the Tar Heel state.
The NHC has been issuing Public Advisories for Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here.
Isaac is a small storm. Isaac is predicted to steadily strengthen during the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and in a low wind shear environment in the short term. The NHC predicts Isaac will reach hurricane status within 2 days.
Helene is expected to reach hurricane status in the short term. However, Helene is not anticipated to threaten U.S. interests. The forecast track turns north into the mid-Atlantic.
Click on the images below to enlarge
and a north turn after that...then NE to NYC area with the moisture channel still over the east coast the whole time
Jamie Mitchem sounds more irresponsible than the 200 people he speaks of. Picturing 200 people floating away on pieces of rooftops and other debris as an island (which has been around since the 1500s sinks below the waves of THE MOST CATSTROPHIC HURRICANE in the history of the Weather Channel... this year.
Talk about hype. Flippin’ idiot...
That is a great forecast model animation.
For those wanting a good site to pull up various real-time images try clicking and book marking this one:
You can change the speed, the number of frames, the various cloud levels you want etc.
The problem I have is that they have been forecasting 10 to 15 feet of surge for over three days. They have cited that as above ground level data.
Lets say that the average of that (12.5) is over estimated or over forecast by 100%. That is still 6.25 feet. I have been to the outer banks. I know that six foot above high tide water line as surge with waves on top is going to be a terrible storm impact.
I understand that people don’t like to leave their seaside property. It happens in everyone of these storms or floods.
Is there a site that shows projected storm surge that I am not seeing? Curious as to what is projected for Ocracoke Island
http://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=d9ed7904dbec441a9c4dd7b277935fad&entry=1
adjust ‘category’ on the tabs for predicted surge.
Lots of caveats with surge numbers.
This storm more resembles Ike right now and likely has surge in excess of its SS category.
Not to mention sitting and spinning for a day or two in the same spot more or less. Plus the predicted 30-50” of rain for that locale with nowhere to go because of persistent SE/E winds.
This storm appears to be extremely difficult to track.Must have a bunch of variables that keep changing in the steering.
If this is the case and it appears it is, we will just have to be content to see where it is when as long range predictions may be beyond the ability of the best computers around to judge.
wow what a track! Don’t recall anything close to that.
https://twitter.com/TalladegaSuperS/status/1039955215724802053
Talladega is open for storm refugees.
What do you think about the new GOES 16 images at the top of this thread? I’m awestruck by the crisp detail and colors. At night, you can see the lights of population centers.
Technology is awesome!.........................and it will only get better with time!...............
Hope 3D is coming soon!...............
What is not shown is that it came back out of Louisana and reentered over Pensacola. By that time it was not really tropical. It played havoc with the barrier islands.
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