Posted on 09/09/2018 8:01:18 AM PDT by NautiNurse
September 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season, and the conga line of storms dancing across the Atlantic is not disappointing historical data. The Governors of NC and SC have declared states of emergency for a potential major hurricane landfall, while Hurricane Florence is slowly creeping westward. Florence is predicted to increase forward motion and intensity Monday. Hurricanes Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989) are two notorious major hurricanes to make landfall in NC and SC, respectively. North Carolina has prior experience with "F" named hurricanes. Hurricanes Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) caused widespread flooding and damage in the Tar Heel state.
The NHC has been issuing Public Advisories for Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here.
Isaac is a small storm. Isaac is predicted to steadily strengthen during the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and in a low wind shear environment in the short term. The NHC predicts Isaac will reach hurricane status within 2 days.
Helene is expected to reach hurricane status in the short term. However, Helene is not anticipated to threaten U.S. interests. The forecast track turns north into the mid-Atlantic.
Click on the images below to enlarge
someone noting a more northern track on twitter ?
That is one humungous slice of Mama Nature pie.
(bold added, just because )-:
gorgeous place. I’d love to live there full-time.
Thanks so much for all your very informative posts. Much appreciated.
He has this stalling before land.Then he doesn’t know.He is showing the trend.
My G-daughter is by Myrtle beach and they are going to be heading for Maryland soon
Anyone know how these storms will effect Maryland?
(Just heard from her-they jut got evacuated and are leaving in a few minutes)
Thanks for posting threads like this NautiNurse
They are da bomb!
We stay in Nags head, but I’ve seen that hotel
bttt
That would be remarkable. Where would they all go?
No location in Virginia is safe at this point.
Are you speculating, or do you know that they are actually considering this?
Low lying and coastal areas north of landfall are at risk of flooding. Traveling N from Myrtle Beach will take her through the entire evacuation area. Is there any option for her to evacuate S or SW?
Those potential rain totals are impressive.
It appears that the differences in timing and intensity of two upper-level troughs have direct influences on the position of the ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean. The first feature is a shortwave trough traversing western Canada.
The GFS depicts this feature to be more amplified and slightly faster than the ECMWF. If this were the case, the larger, broader piece of the trough to the south would intensify due to more intense cold advection from the north. The result would be a more significant force pushing against the unseasonably strong wall of a ridge over North America, shifting it eastward. With the ridge shifting eastward, the clockwise circulation can pick up Florence and direct it toward the north, resulting in a chance for the storm to remain just offshore or making landfall in northern North Carolina or Virginia.
These same upper-level features are weaker and slower on the ECMWF. Thus, the ridge remains centered further west, keeping Florence further south and west, resulting in a landfall somewhere in the Carolinas.
Ditto that- south and west.
This storm reminds me of Hugo, Floyd...
I-95 is going to be slammed with evacuating vacationers, I’d suggest looking at possible alternate routes more inland then north, but then she’ll encounter resident evacuees heading inland. Might as well take the most direct route which is I-95. I dislike these mass evacuations, the storm path could change, making it all but impossible to evacuate those who actually are in harm’s way, with hotels filled with people evacuated from the previous forecast.
Last minutes shifts are the norm.
I recall Charlie was on track to go up Tampa bay but then shifted east
into Punta Gorda.
Last year Irma never hit Sarasota but went hit Lake Wales .
Wow! I have a picture from that same deck!
May not be there in a week.
The potential rain totals are astonishing.
Coming to periscope depth.. My oh my!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
