Posted on 09/09/2018 8:01:18 AM PDT by NautiNurse
September 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season, and the conga line of storms dancing across the Atlantic is not disappointing historical data. The Governors of NC and SC have declared states of emergency for a potential major hurricane landfall, while Hurricane Florence is slowly creeping westward. Florence is predicted to increase forward motion and intensity Monday. Hurricanes Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989) are two notorious major hurricanes to make landfall in NC and SC, respectively. North Carolina has prior experience with "F" named hurricanes. Hurricanes Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) caused widespread flooding and damage in the Tar Heel state.
The NHC has been issuing Public Advisories for Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here.
Isaac is a small storm. Isaac is predicted to steadily strengthen during the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and in a low wind shear environment in the short term. The NHC predicts Isaac will reach hurricane status within 2 days.
Helene is expected to reach hurricane status in the short term. However, Helene is not anticipated to threaten U.S. interests. The forecast track turns north into the mid-Atlantic.
Click on the images below to enlarge
Was in Cary for Fran and currently Chapel Hill. I was building house back in ‘96 and spent a few weeks clearing trees off of newly constructed houses. We had a few microbursts (possible small tornados) in a couple of neighborhoods. And it was hot. No power at home for two weeks. We joined the neighbors and emptied all the freezers on the cul-de-sac and grilled everything we had and ate like kings for a few days. A power company from Illinois (of all places) finally turned on the power on day 13.
If your area is without power for some time, check gas stations and stores near the hospital or police and fire stations for ice. The power company tends to focus on those grids first. We found O’Charley’s restaurant open (next to Wake Med) and decided to give the kids a break from “camping”.
The main problem with the then-CAT 1 hurricane was the wet ground (Old, massive oaks uprooting and rolling over) and the fact that the trees don’t bend like they do on the coast.
The latest track has the center moving up through Fayetteville on Thursday afternoon/early evening on a line toward Greensboro which has it passing just to the west of Jordan Lake. The messier part of the storm being to the east of center.
On a side note, I went to Wrightsville a few weeks later and crossing the Cape Fear on I-40 you could see the mud line about 12 feet up on the trees and mounds of sand which had been bulldozed off the highway.
Great! Looking forward to your analysis.
Hmnn.. Bad news for my business. We have a TON of shipments scheduled to go out of Norfolk in the next two weeks.
Here is a map of current stream levels in Virginia.
https://waterdata.usgs.gov/va/nwis/rt
Do you see all of the blue dots? Most of them are concentrated along the Blue Ridge Mountains and Shenandoah Valley.
An additional 3-4 ft of rainfall in those areas could most definitely be catastrophic. And a lot of hurricanes that make landfall in North Carolina end up in Central Virginia.
bkmk
Most people don’t know that Camille stalled in Central Virginia. 124 people were killed in floodwaters and/or mudslides in just one county in Virginia.
Very common this time of year for the conga line of Atlantic storms and altered ship routes. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Is the high pressure over E Canada/Northern NE going to dip southward? Do you have prediction of the timing, other factors?
True... I’m not worried about them once they get on the water. We’ve already recorded a “Sale” by then. But, if a significant storm hits near a port, they can be shut down for quite awhile.
fingers crossed... and, wondering why we didn’t ship out of Houston!
Ha! With Houston inundated by Hurricane Harvey last year, I guess the bigger question is why must the big shipments go out at the height of hurricane season?
We ship even more in December.. when fog becomes a real threat in Houston.
Sep and Dec are ‘Quarter end’ months... for some reason, our shipments always seem to back up to the end of the Quarter.
Quite frustrating.. especially for our logistics team.
Here is the current soil moisture ...click on the anomaly ..its very wet from NC into PA...the ground can’t take much water...
Unlike Harvey in Texas some of the area is very hilly too....plus the flow will move up the mountains enhancing the rainfall amounts in places too
Harvey dumped 30-60 inches a fluke for sure..but the same models predicted it ...15 to isolated 30 here seem possible ...but unlike Houston area its isn’t flat and will take days to drain to the ocean
also lots of Dams in the area too(100’s of smaller ones)..some of which will fail like in previous events
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/US/Soilmst/Soilmst.shtml
I was in fuquay varina when Frank hit. Crazy. Times. No power for 3 weeks.
I have my own spring in my basement for water supply, a pond out back, a generator, firewood is cut, lots of liquid refreshments in my wine cellar..... Several chain saws (will tune them up this week) I’d be good until spring at least.... And enough good books to read for the rest of my life and still not complete them.(No, I’m not a slow reader...LOL)
And we have had a lot of rain. The ground is saturated already.
Fascinating—keep us posted about the Norfolk port situation over the next couple of weeks.
“Ah, I’m in Cary.”
CARY stands for “Containment Area for Relocated Yankees”
Isabel sunk my boat in port tobacco. Hate hurricanes.
Yep but they left the area. All over r-d now.
Saturated ground and wet foliage is a setup for downed trees with relatively minor wind gusts. Flooding is inevitable.
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