Posted on 09/09/2018 8:01:18 AM PDT by NautiNurse
September 10 is the statistical peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season, and the conga line of storms dancing across the Atlantic is not disappointing historical data. The Governors of NC and SC have declared states of emergency for a potential major hurricane landfall, while Hurricane Florence is slowly creeping westward. Florence is predicted to increase forward motion and intensity Monday. Hurricanes Hazel (1954) and Hugo (1989) are two notorious major hurricanes to make landfall in NC and SC, respectively. North Carolina has prior experience with "F" named hurricanes. Hurricanes Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999) caused widespread flooding and damage in the Tar Heel state.
The NHC has been issuing Public Advisories for Florence since August 30. The five day "Cone of Uncertainty" archive progression since Aug. 30 may be found here.
Isaac is a small storm. Isaac is predicted to steadily strengthen during the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and in a low wind shear environment in the short term. The NHC predicts Isaac will reach hurricane status within 2 days.
Helene is expected to reach hurricane status in the short term. However, Helene is not anticipated to threaten U.S. interests. The forecast track turns north into the mid-Atlantic.
Click on the images below to enlarge
Yes it is!
Yikes !
NN, did you see #82 ?
Sure hope he’s wrong on that :-\
The 5:00 PM NHC forecast track illustrates slowed forward movement following landfall. This can result in catastrophic rainfall. Previously, the storm track predicted rapid inland progress, with Florence still boasting hurricane winds inland around Cumberland County (Fayetteville). While slower forward motion decays inland wind speed, the rain potential for destructive flooding is drastically increased.
I’m over past the RDU toward Durham/Chapel Hill, just off I 40.
Did Fran in Pennsylvania in 1996. I’m a Yankee import.
My home is brick, pretty high ground for flood protection but also protected from the wind. Cut down about 20 trees close to the house for fire protection so no blow over worries. Have a finished basement that will be quiet if necessary. I look forward to the adventure.
In central PA it seems we've had little else but rain all summer, but nothing like what they're talking about here.
Thanks for the reply & info.
Always learn a learn a thing or two on your storm threads .. my main problem is remembering them ;-)
How many days ago was that picture plotted?
How much rain have the NC mountains had already this year?
The area around the Blue Ridge mountains in Central Virginia has already experienced record rainfall this year. 3-4 ft of additional rain is not something I even want to think about right now.
Looks like Africa is sending Hurricanes to America like the Bugs in Starship Troopers sent an Asteroid to Buenos Aires.
Ah, I’m in Cary.
Sounds like you are in a good situation. Hope you have supplies for a few days since power outages are a bummer.
Keeping an eye on Florence to see what effect it has on us here in NJ. Prayers for the Carolina’s and others in it’s path.
The heavy rainfall in PA this weekend is due to the remnants of TS Gordon, which made landfall Sept. 4, way down south at the MS/AL border.
Your hunch is very wrong. Flo is headed for the Mid-Atlantic States and it's going to be a terrible disaster. I've been a pro-met for 31 years...and this is a terrible setup.
Thank you for checking in here and sharing your valuable Wx wisdom.
Ths high pressure area to the N-NE will block Florence from coming any further north at all and could also end up stopping it east of the Appalachians.
This is a terrible scenario for N. Carolina.
This has the potential to be an epic disaster. It’s not just the potential of a cat 4 making landfall, but its the stall afterward. Both the GFS and EURO are putting down Harvey like #’s for rainfall over a large area of NC/VA. This is going to cause catastrophic freshwater flooding if this verifies.
Thank you for checking in and for your detailed Wx analysis.
Just leave. Unless you’re close to a hospital
your power will be out for weeks. Gasoline will
be out because gas trucks won’t be able to get in and pumps won’t have power. Cell towers will be down. Same with food stores. Just stay away until power is back.
(click for Weather World info)
Indeed, we have a dire situation if/when the stall occurs. Do you have details about the timing and movement of the fronts/ridges influencing the projected stall?
No problem. I’m going to start cutting some Youtube vids tomorrow. I’m retiring this November after a 31 year AF career...so I don’t have to worry about any double interests and can actually share my personal opinions.
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