Posted on 09/08/2018 12:52:18 AM PDT by hsmomx3
PHOENIX — The 2018 Arizona gubernatorial race is staged to be a tight one.
A new poll released Wednesday by Public Policy Polling shows Democratic candidate behind Republican incumbent Doug Ducey by just one point.
In an August survey, 44 percent of Arizona voters chose Ducey, while 43 percent chose Garcia. Only 13 percent of Arizona voters were undecided between the two candidates, according to Public Policy Polling.
The polling research included that 45 percent of voters surveyed disapprove of Ducey's job as governor. It also pointed out that Garcia leads Ducey among Independents (46 percent to 36 percent), women (45 percent to 41 percent), and Latino voters (52 percent to 22 percent).
Public Policy Polling interviewed 554 Arizona voters on August 30 and 31. The survey’s margin of error is +/-4.2 percent. The polling group says the research was conducted on behalf of Garcia's campaign.
For the record, Garcia’s entire life has been academia...a professor. Beyond that, nothing.
The Trump win in 2016 in AZ? Just a 3.5-point edge over Clinton. I should add that Bernie supporters did well in the primary (41-percent of the primary vote).
This is mostly a governor’s election dependent on a large turnout in Flagstaff and Tucson for Garcia. If they turn out as people suspect, then Garcia has a chance of winning.
I agree.
If people in the Phoenix metro area don’t get out and vote, it will be Garcia.
Teachers are out protesting once again for more pay. It’s nasty out there. Whatever they get is never good enough.
When was the last time that Arizona had a Rat governor?
Hard to believe that Arizona is turning purple.
Janet Napolitano from 2003-2009
Wasn’t there a rat governor that Obama picked for his cabinet? Can not recall her name.
Yes, Napolitano.
And it’s these people who want him so badly:
Fake poll alert. Visit. This is clearly built on faulty turnout model. Remember strong turnout edge Rs had in primaries. Nothing to this but Democrat psy ops.
agreed.
from the article above “the research was conducted on behalf of Garcia’s campaign.”
Re: “Hard to believe that Arizona is turning purple.”
Arizona is now 31% Hispanic.
Texas is almost 40% Hispanic.
New immigrant citizens vote 80% for the Democrat Party.
Politically, the game is just about over for American Conservatives.
Illegal alien Mexican Nationals now outnumber Americans in Arizona. It’s too bad. Arizona isn’t turning “purple”, it’s turning Mexican.
sad but true
Illegal alien Mexican Nationals now outnumber Americans in Arizona. It’s too bad. Arizona isn’t turning “purple”, it’s turning Mexican.
/
/
yep
The rat vote share for President in AZ has been remarkably stable. It was close cause of Gary Johnson but Hillary didn’t really do that well.
She got 44.58%, which is only slightly better than the 44.45% Obama got in 2012 and less than the 44.91% he got in 2008. Kerry got 44.32%, Gore got 44.67%. Bubba won in 1996 with 46.52%.
GOP outpolled the rats in the primary by 100K plus.
I believe the Senate race is close but I’m skeptical of this weak gubernatorial rat having a real chance.
Given that the election isn't until November, they did not!
(Also, who is hanging around at home 2 days before Labor Day weekend in Arizona?)
As a result of cell phones and message charges today, I don't know if there really IS any good way to live poll the electorate in 2018. As I understand it, pollsters all call cell phone numbers, but the call "pickup" rate is terrible. (Gallup, the organization that has been doing election polling since FDR, gave up after their poor results in 2012. They predicted Romney would win, BTW.)
That leaves it to alternative tea-leaf reading methodology to predict election outcomes today.
IIRC election numbers cruncher and frequent poster "LS" lives in Arizona, so his take on this poll should be interesting.
Why post a Dem funded phony poll ?
Shouldn’t Joe Arpaio jump into the race as an independent right about now and cock this election up, too?
Arizona is purple the D’s are on course for world domination. They leave California and f’ up other states.
Inescapable fact: Arizona Rs own 150,000 vote edge in registrations.
There are 1.2m indies, but indies nationally only vote at about a 30% rate (vs. 50% or more for the parties).
That means out of 400,000 voters, Enema has to get about 2:1 just to break even if turnout is the same.
But, of course, turnout was NOT the same: Rs had 140,000 more turn out in the primary over Enema and her Moslem opponent.
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