[LS]

We are very fortunate the vote on Judge Kavanaugh is pending and soon.

Ducey will be forced to name a replacement rather than dawdling and it absolutely cannot be someone who even thinks twice about supporting Kavanaugh. Therefore it will be someone reasonably conservative.

My AZ sources tell me the following:
*Both McCains are out.
*DeWitt is out
*Jon Kyl told me months ago he isn’t interested.
*the appointment will be someone who will “help Ducey” (but I don’t know if that means this election or in the future. I’m guessing both.
*”Could be someone unexpected.”

Further, simple logic says it will not be either McSally or Ward: this would have the effect of “punishing” the winner of the primary (likely McSally) if he named the loser, in which case the winner might lose the general. If he named the winner of the primary, I’m not sure what protocol is on what follows. I don’t know that automatically the nomination to run for Flake’s seat would fall to the loser (likely Ward).

Either way, this would stir up a real hornet’s nest. My strong suspicion is that he stays out of the primary and names someone else.

What about current congressmen? Doubt it. I think either Schweikert or Grajalva would have seniority, Biggs is the most conservative but a freshman, and I’m told Gosar really doesn’t want it. Regardless, naming ANY house member would a) cause a war with all the other factions, b) throw open yet one more House seat that we can’t afford to lose.

There are suggestions about former Gov. Jan Brewer (a strong possibility if she wants it) or former Cong. Matt Salmon (a decent choice). But Brewer is a Trumper who Ducey banned from the state convention delegation, and Salmon has a full time gig. Probably either would be acceptable to both wings of the AZ GOP and would be a “soft Trump” support in the Senate-—but certainly not a Flakey or McTurd.

Finally, one source tells me it’s just his “guess” that Ducey could go completely unexpected with his chief of staff Kirk Adams. But I doubt he’ll go with anyone who hasn’t won some election somewhere.

Oh, and I humbly volunteer for the seat.

[FreedomPoster]

Interesting take on the complicated political calculus going on.

And LOL on that last!

[COBOL2Java]

*Both McCains are out.

From your fingers to God's ears!

If true, Cindy's screaming at the help about now.

[laplata]

Ducey will be forced to name a replacement rather than dawdling and it absolutely cannot be someone who even thinks twice about supporting Kavanaugh. Therefore it will be someone reasonably conservative.

><><

Let’s hope so.

Thanks, LS

[Rusty0604]

Larry Schweikart for Senate!

[hsmomx3]

Thanks for your post and insight.

I guess we’ll all have to wait and see.

[Jane Long]

Thanks.

I’ll be keeping my fingers crossed 🤞🏻 for you 😁

[Biggirl]

I do think Ms. Kelli Ward hurt herself by what she said this past weekend about the issue of the timing of the end of Sen. McCain’s cancer treatment. I suspect he was in hospice care by the time announcement went out. Whatever your viewpoint is on McCain,she shot herself in the feet.

[Taxman]

I second your nomination, Larry!

[karnage]

All In For LS!

[Steven Tyler]

Sheriff Joe

[grey_whiskers]

I nominate Praying Medic ;-)

[Beautiful_Gracious_Skies]

Vote LS for the next Senator of Arizona!

You got my vote ;-)

[Albion Wilde]

Oh, and I humbly volunteer for the seat.

We would love that.

[Political Junkie Too]

Further, simple logic says it will not be either McSally or Ward: this would have the effect of “punishing” the winner of the primary (likely McSally) if he named the loser, in which case the winner might lose the general. If he named the winner of the primary, I’m not sure what protocol is on what follows.

I just looked up the Arizona Election Code and procedures manual.

Since this is a primary, it looks like the best of all worlds would be for the Governor to appoint the winner to fill McCain's term. This has the advantage of ensuring that person at least two years in the Senate instead of taking the gamble of the general election. Then, with the vacancy in the general election caused by loss of the primary winner, the party may select a replacement candidate. This could easily be the runner-up in the primary.

-PJ

[montag813]

Finally, one source tells me it’s just his “guess” that Ducey could go completely unexpected with his chief of staff Kirk Adams. But I doubt he’ll go with anyone who hasn’t won some election somewhere.

My guess too, since it fits the "helping Ducey" criteria, and Adams has some gravitas as a former Speaker of the House.

[KC Burke]

I’ll let Dougie know that you are shy but available.

[Lakeside Granny]

I certainly hope you are right on the not dawdling, the suspense is killing me.

Going to vote tomorrow for the fair Dr. Kelly, the good Sheriff should have bowed out but....

Terrific idea to appoint you, should we all call Doug?

[jonrick46]

I think Gov. Jan Brewer would be the best choice. See my post 116.

[nutmeg]

Oh, and I humbly volunteer for the seat.

And I humbly endorse you as the next U.S. Senator from Arizona! :-)

Really, really interesting post, Larry... thanks!

[Impy]

Grijalva is a rat, so I certainly hope it’s not him. :D

I had a nightmaric notion of McCain wanting Flake to take his place.