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Baby Boom or Bust? Media Gets it Wrong – Again
The Federation for American Immigration Reform ^ | August 8, 2018 | Bob Dane

Posted on 08/11/2018 11:49:52 AM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks

According to recent media accounts, America is in a population death spiral. Open-borders activists have seized on the narrative to promote ever-looser immigration policies.

But the narrative is wrong.

In fact, women in the U.S. are more likely to be mothers than in the past, and they are having more children, reports the Pew Research Center.

The Pew study found that women have 2.07 children during their lives on average – up from 1.86 in 2006, the lowest on record. Family size is also up. In 2016, mothers at the end of their childbearing years had had about 2.42 children, compared with 2.31 in 2008.

So, what about those dire warnings of a U.S. population collapse?

The Pew analysis is properly calculated on a cumulative measure of lifetime fertility — the number of births a woman has ever had. Reports of alleged declining U.S. fertility are based on less accurate annual rates, which only capture fertility at one point in time.

In fact, the share of U.S. women at the end of their childbearing years who have ever given birth was higher in 2016 than 10 years earlier. Not only are women more likely to be mothers than in the past, but they are having more children.

As Donna Strobino, a professor of population, family and reproductive health at the Johns Hopkins University, puts it: Women are delaying having children, rather than not having children at all.

These are inconvenient truths for neo-mercantilists trying to exploit the media’s simple-minded herd instinct and the misplaced compassion of immigration enthusiasts to advance a population fetish.

For all the alarmist rhetoric about its impending collapse, America’s population has swelled from 203 million in 1970 to more than 328 million this year, with no end in sight.

The U.S. is the third most populous country on Earth, behind India and China. Its annual population growth rate is 0.7 percent – between China’s 0.39 percent and India’s 1.11 percent.

Immigration clearly enters into the equation here. Pew reports that nearly a quarter of U.S. births in 2014 were to foreign-born mothers, and about a third of those were to illegal aliens.

So how many more millions should the United States welcome aboard? It’s a crucial question; a dispassionate answer will be based on the cost-benefits to America, and the impact on this country’s environment and institutions. Scaremongering about a supposed scarcity of service workers and Social Security contributors is not the basis for sound policy when demographic data don’t support the story line.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Crime/Corruption; Culture/Society; Editorial; Government; Miscellaneous; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: births; demographics; environment; fertility; illegalaliens; immigrants; immigration; media; mediabias; openborders; pew; populationgrowth; reconquista; resources; trump; women

1 posted on 08/11/2018 11:49:52 AM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

Sounds like the fictitious STEM shortage. Anything to justify unfettered population replacement.


2 posted on 08/11/2018 11:55:10 AM PDT by Menehune56 ("Let them hate so long as they fear" (Oderint Dum Metuant), Lucius Accius (170 BC - 86 BC))
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

Liberals are in a population death spiral, while conservative Americans are having enough kids to sustain their numbers. It’s what you get from practicing abortion and strange sex too much.


3 posted on 08/11/2018 11:56:29 AM PDT by Berosus (I wish I had as much faith in God as liberals have in government.)
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

which ethnic groups are having more children?


4 posted on 08/11/2018 12:09:25 PM PDT by SMGFan ( .)
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

Our problem is WHO is having children.

Incidentally it is mentioned that a third are born to Illegals. Combine that with the proportion of the Welfare Class having Illegitimate children and you can see the disaster looming.

When those with IQs more than one standard deviation from the mean are having far too many babies future illegitimacy, more poverty, more welfare dependency, more crime are the result.

A substantial part of IQ is inherited (40-60%) according to the vast majority of studies of such. And the academics hated to have to admit it. This means the below average proportion of births is contributing to a decline in national IQ.

Unfortunately the birthrate in the upper levels of IQ who you want to have children (married, educated, upper level of the class structure) does not even reach 2.00. The cost of a child in this group is astronomical since the wife’s income is sacrificed to be able to raise her child.

The increasing role of intelligence in the technological economy points to two groups: those of low intelligence and those of high intelligence with the latter getting the high paying jobs and the former creeping by on the dole.

This is not a racist conclusion since the highest IQ is the Jews with the East Asian next. Whites are 5 or so points behind the latter and 10 or so for Jews.


5 posted on 08/11/2018 12:16:16 PM PDT by arrogantsob (See "Chaos and Mayhem" at Amazon.com)
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To: SMGFan

See above.

Correction - one third of all births to foreign mother are too Illegals NOT one third of all births as I stated.

Gotta read carefully.


6 posted on 08/11/2018 12:19:08 PM PDT by arrogantsob (See "Chaos and Mayhem" at Amazon.com)
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

Immigration can be a good thing if new immigrants consume less than they produce. Importing a massive number of welfare recipients will hurt instead help.

And then there is the culture. Is their culture compatible and if not are they willing to assimilate?


7 posted on 08/11/2018 12:25:27 PM PDT by dhs12345
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks
The Pew study found that women have 2.07 children during their lives on average – up from 1.86 in 2006, the lowest on record. Family size is also up. In 2016, mothers at the end of their childbearing years had had about 2.42 children, compared with 2.31 in 2008.

Huh? How can mothers have more children at the end of their childbearing years than they have during their lives?
8 posted on 08/11/2018 12:26:47 PM PDT by The Pack Knight
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

Scaremongering about a supposed scarcity of service workers and Social Security contributors is not the basis for sound policy when demographic data don’t support the story line.

Not to mention the murder of 50 million contributors
before they ever had a chance to contribute anything.


9 posted on 08/11/2018 12:31:42 PM PDT by tet68 ( " We would not die in that man's company, that fears his fellowship to die with us...." Henry V.)
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To: The Pack Knight

“childbearing years HAD HAD about 2.42 children,

Read it again.

.


10 posted on 08/11/2018 12:34:59 PM PDT by Mears
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To: The Pack Knight

One looks at women hitting 45 and looks at home many children they had on average.
The total fertility rate averages the birth rates of women in aggregate per year and predicts their average fertility over a lifetime.
If women are having children later in life so the fertility rate for women in their late 30s WILL BE higher than what we see right now, TFR will under-report how many kids we expect them to have. If fertility drops off faster than expected, TFR estimates based on today’s data expect you to have 2.0-2.5 kids when a lot of women don’t have that second or third child demographers expected.


11 posted on 08/11/2018 12:37:29 PM PDT by tbw2
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To: The Pack Knight

Fertility drugs???


12 posted on 08/11/2018 12:42:50 PM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks ( The US Constitution ....... Invented by geniuses and God .... Administered by morons ......)
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

This is great news, but urban planners in my city are expecting the opposite, or even trying to force less children by the housing they are building. They are concentrating on packing millennials into downtown cubbyholes stacked on top of each other, with no room for kids. I never see children playing in these new urban housing areas.


13 posted on 08/11/2018 12:43:02 PM PDT by Vince Ferrer
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To: SMGFan

I’m guessing it’s predominately Latinos and Moslems nowadays.


14 posted on 08/11/2018 12:43:23 PM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks ( The US Constitution ....... Invented by geniuses and God .... Administered by morons ......)
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To: Tolerance Sucks Rocks

Whitey is not having babies, but many newly-arrived “visitors” are breeding like rabbits, thanks to Whitey’s money.


15 posted on 08/11/2018 12:45:41 PM PDT by I want the USA back (If free speech is taken away, dumb and silent we are led, like sheep to the slaughter: G Washington)
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To: Berosus
Liberals are in a population death spiral, while conservative Americans are having enough kids to sustain their numbers. It’s what you get from practicing abortion and strange sex too much.

I don't believe this to be true at all.

In fact, it's my observation that the people having the most children are those who have someone else flipping the bill.

And this includes myself. My wife and I have four children and as an active duty member of the U.S. military, having them didn't cost us a dime.

16 posted on 08/11/2018 12:49:41 PM PDT by Drew68
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To: SMGFan
In my “Caucasian” neighborhood, one family has 5 children, 2 families have 3, two have 2 and one family has 1 but she’s quite young, so maybe more to come.

Should also mention that all husbands are employed with professional careers, three wives also work, two full time, 1 part time with three stay-at-home moms.

I have 3 daughters, one has 5 children, the other 2 have 3 children. I have a number of female friends that, like me are Baby Boomers, only 2 of these women had no children, one had a stillborn baby and never had more, the other never had any and i never inquired as to why but her hubby has 3 by a prior marriage..

So much for running out of native born children to replace us in the Midwest!

17 posted on 08/11/2018 1:12:30 PM PDT by zerosix (Native Sunflower..AMERICA! Designed by geniuses - now run by the idiots in Congress)
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To: arrogantsob
Incidentally it is mentioned that a third are born to Illegals. Combine that with the proportion of the Welfare Class having Illegitimate children and you can see the disaster looming.

At some point, there will not be enough taxpayers to pay for welfare. Even before that point, we will be at a point where we will have to choose between funding Social Security and Medicare for ourselves and our own parents and grandparents, versus funding welfare.

How many kids will a welfare girl have if she has to support them herself with no assistance?

18 posted on 08/11/2018 1:17:18 PM PDT by PapaBear3625 ("It rubs the rainbow on it's skin or it gets the diversity again!")
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To: arrogantsob

A fourth of the kids are born to immigrants, with a third OF THAT FOURTH being born to illegals. That’s how I read it.

So 1/12 of the USA’s kids are being born to illegals. Still too high.


19 posted on 08/11/2018 3:59:12 PM PDT by Tolerance Sucks Rocks ( The US Constitution ....... Invented by geniuses and God .... Administered by morons ......)
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To: arrogantsob

“Incidentally it is mentioned that a third are born to Illegals.”

Which contradicts a previous Pew study that shows that the birthrate from Mexican illegals - the largest illegal group - leveled off and dropped in 2007 and hasn’t recovered.

My point is that we don’t know what’s going on population wise because all the studies are unclear and contradictory. And the US census bureau is a morass of outright propaganda and disinformation.

Now, here’s my report:

I’m seeing an explosion of stick figures on the back of SUVs in grocery parking lots. These are the appliques that parents paste on the back windows of their SUVs that show the number of kids, pets, etc. I live in a mostly white community; therefore, the white population is increasing dramatically.

Furthermore, no soccer fields that cater to Mexicans are being built. OTOH, baseball diamonds that appeal to white whites and white Mexicans, are sprouting like mushrooms in the community.

We live in interesting times, yes?


20 posted on 08/11/2018 5:53:14 PM PDT by sergeantdave (Teach a man to fish and he'll steal your gear and sell it)
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