GOP Victory in OH-12: A Win is a Win, Despite Reasons for Concern

Voters in Ohio's 12th Congressional District appear to have narrowly elected Republican Troy Balderson in yesterday's special election, thwarting Democrats' hopes to flip another GOP-held seat ahead of the midterm elections. The race came down to the wire, but the incumbent party ultimately prevailed. There's a small chance that provisional ballots could trigger a recount, and that absentee ballots could shift votes, but left-leaning elections guru Dave Wasserman looks at the math and effectively calls the contest over, discerning that defeated Democrat Danny O'Connor would "need a miracle" to reverse the outcome. For all intents and purposes, and barring major developments, it's over; Balderson won. Winning is always better than losing (with very rare arguable exceptions), so the GOP has ample reason to celebrate -- but the broader picture is less rosy than they'd have you believe. A few key takeaways, starting with the good news for Republicans:

(1) A win is a win. I realize that's some deep and profound political analysis, but that's why they pay me the big bucks. Seriously, though, a loss would have been so much worse than a too-close-for-comfort victory. Sure, the House GOP conference would be down a seat, but the bigger problem would be psychological. Notching a second consecutive special election win in a fairly heavy (+11) Trump district would have been yet another shot in the arm to national Democrats. It would also have been a morale crusher for Republicans, whose fretting, demoralization and panic over a blue wave could at least partially spiral into a self-fulfilling prophesy. It could also have weighed on the minds of major conservative donors, who might be more inclined to close up their wallets in a hopeless-looking cycle. Narratives and optics matter, and Republicans seem to have averted a nightmare on both fronts by hanging on to this R+7 seat.

(2) The Trump-Kasich alliance worked. Suffice it to say that the President of the United States and the Governor of Ohio, both Republicans, do not care for one another. But they each strongly endorsed Balderson in this campaign, combining their efforts -- albeit indirectly -- to pull their preferred candidate over the top. Trump juiced and energized the base, going all-in for Balderson with a rally and tweets last weekend, while Kasich helped close the sale with Trump-skeptical educated suburban voters. I'd submit that without the assistance from both Trump and Kasich, Balderson loses. But disparate elements of the party came together and salvaged the seat.

(3) Republicans have now gone eight for nine in special House elections during the Trump era. For all the talk of a 'blue wave' (see more context below), this statistic is accurate -- and the president made sure to highlight it on Twitter:

(4) Nancy Pelosi is still a drag on Democrats. More than a few political pros are assessing that this MSNBC exchange (which we wrote about at the time) proved to be a decisive moment in the home stretch of the race:

O'Connor finally admitted under pressure that he'd back Speaker Pelosi if push came to shove, and Republicans took that answer and sprinted with it toward the finish line. The NRCC cited it as a turning point in the campaign in their post-victory talking points, emphasizing that it also presents a national lesson, too:

(1) This seat shouldn't be competitive. RealClearPolitics elections expert Sean Trende is likely right about this, tweeted before anyone had declared victory last night:

In case you missed it, here's his detailed, pre-election explanation of why a tight win in either direction would be a worrisome sign for the Republican Party. As I mentioned above, this is an R+7 district that Donald Trump carried easily. It's been in the R column for the last 36 years. The previous incumbent won with nearly 67 percent of the vote. Yet last night was nail-biter.

(2) Democrats gained considerable ground. In spite of the GOP's not-quite-official win, last night's vote tally represents the latest data point in a long string of 2017 and 2018 elections in which Democrats' share of the vote total has increased by double digits over 2014 and 2016. As I alluded to in the bullet point above, the Republicans' margin of victory in OH-12 in 2016 was 37 points. On Tuesday, it was a hair under one point. That is not a happy trajectory for the party, as it points to strong Democratic candidate recruitment, robust Democratic enthusiasm, disillusionment among a segment of traditional Republican voters, and a hostile national climate. If this district had been even fractionally less red, it could now be in Democratic hands.

I'll leave you with one more glimmer of decent news for Republicans, even as worrisome signs cropped up in Washington state and Kansas last night:

A modest winner last night: NRCC Chair Rep. Steve Stivers. If Dems couldn't win #OH12 under ideal circumstances, hard to see how they compete in #OH15 (also PVI R+7, but wider Trump margin & Stivers got 66% in '16).— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) August 8, 2018

To expand on what you said.

12th Dist in 2016 voting R-243,970, D-109,455, G- 12,848. To me it looks like the Dem’s max out their voters with 99,820 but the Repub did not with 101,574 that leaves Repub with 142,396 to play with and get out come Nov 2

Before November, the GOP in each state better get their acts together. Knock on doors, call voters, hold barbecues, picnics, whatever to get people energized. Ohio is finally getting their people back to work all because of Trump. If they want to continue working, they better get their rears to the polls in November!!

The WalkAway movement is energizing new Trump voters as well as the Black and Hispanic voters are changing parties.

And, a lot of the scandals should be breaking wide open before the mid-terms and not a positive for the Marxist RATs who are involved up to their treasonous eyeballs.

the GOP has done nothing but stall and even PUBLICLY fight against POTUS and his agenda, with tax cuts being the exception.

Trump ran against this kind of establishment BS with the GOP as he did with Dems.
His voters don’t like either party much, or at least the once who crossed over to vote R for the first time.

Look, if GOP turnout is low in November, we’re in trouble.

But I have no reason to expect that. Dems have a hardon for these special elections, our voters simply don’t. With normal GOP turnout, we’re fine.

As for this seat in particular. Looks like certain sources predicting an easy win were wrong and the polls were on the money. :/

But Pete, I think you have may have touched on Balderson’s biggest problem, dude is from the sticks. We needed a proven vote getter in Delaware county.

Some knobgobbler on twitter had the nerve to write that Balderson should thank Kasich, cause Trump rural counties had low turnout and “Kasich stronghold” Delaware county “came through” for him. Delaware County was very close and sure as hell didn’t “come through”!!! If not for that Trump rally I think we’d have been looking at Tip O’Neill Jr. there beating Balderson. Kasich tried to sabotage him!!! Swine!!

Fox News is reporting that over 500 uncounted ballots have been found giving the Democrat an additional 190 votes. The aim seems to be to get a recount and the Democrat can cruise to victory. They still have over 8,000 absentee ballots to count and those results will not be made known until Aug. 18th.

I saw Rhonda Romney all over cable news, yesterday.

I’d like to know how much $$$ and GOTV effort was put into theee races, by the RNC.

And, what are the plans for midterm ads, canvassing, etc??

There are SO many issues to expose the new socialist Dems on and great MAGA happenings to tout, and I just seem to be hearing crickets.

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