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Why a Democratic Wave Looks Likely
National Review ^ | 30 Jul 2018 | Jay Cost

Posted on 08/01/2018 8:11:58 AM PDT by oblomov

By most accounts, there is an electoral wave building in favor of the Democratic party. Democrats are in good shape to win the necessary 23 seats to take control of the House of Representatives, nab several governorships, and collect a multitude of state legislative seats. The Senate, by virtue of this year’s map that favors Republicans, should remain in GOP hands. But all in all, a wave seems to be looming.

Granted, the out party usually does well in midterm elections such as the one scheduled for November. But this is not always a guarantee. Ronald Reagan, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama suffered routs in 1982, 1994, and 2010, respectively, but John F. Kennedy, Jimmy Carter, and George W. Bush did not in 1962, 1978, and 2002.

If we look only at the macro conditions of the country, we might think that the Republicans are in reasonably good shape. The United States is not bogged down in any major wars abroad. At home, we have a reasonably strong economy, bolstered by the most recently reported growth rate, of 4.1 percent. And the incumbent party has not passed any legislation that has met with the widespread disapproval of the voters. That should put the GOP of 2018 in better shape than it was in 1982, or that Democrats were in 1994 or 2010.

The predicament for today’s Republicans is not the agenda or the state of the union. The predicament is the president himself, Donald Trump.

Trump is not currently facing a Watergate-level scandal that threatens to bring down his administration. It looked as if this might be the case in, say, the spring of 2017, when it seemed to his critics as though he may have fired FBI director James Comey...

(Excerpt) Read more at nationalreview.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2018midterms; bluewave; democrats; elections; fake; fakenews; nevertrumpreview; trump
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I have been skeptical of the predictions of a Dem wave. However, I do take Jay Cost's analyses seriously.
1 posted on 08/01/2018 8:11:58 AM PDT by oblomov
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To: oblomov

Ludicrous. Not even worth disputing. The Democrats are toast and they know it.


2 posted on 08/01/2018 8:14:11 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (The MSM is in the business of creating a fake version of reality for political reasons.)
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To: oblomov

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!

{Deep breath}

HahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaHahahahahahahahahahahahaha!


3 posted on 08/01/2018 8:14:31 AM PDT by treetopsandroofs
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To: oblomov

I take everyone whom #NeverTrump Review would publish with a barrel of salt.


4 posted on 08/01/2018 8:14:42 AM PDT by MrEdd (Caveat Emptor)
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To: oblomov

Look for Democrats to pull out every cheat they’ve honed over the years.


5 posted on 08/01/2018 8:15:04 AM PDT by Rurudyne (Standup Philosopher)
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To: oblomov

I don’t think FR should get over-confident or whistle past the graveyard if, for no other reason, the need to get out there and vote.

That being said, I’m always a bit skeptical whenever anyone at NR makes these predictions. They’ve wanted Trump to lose since 2016. I think they prefer the GOP being out of power because it’s easier to fundraise off that.


6 posted on 08/01/2018 8:16:09 AM PDT by Behind Liberal Lines (Their side circles the wagons. Our side revs up the bus.)
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To: ClearCase_guy

“The Democrats are toast and they know it.”

They’re preparing their plans for violence and mayhem for when the election results are in and “disappoint” our domestic enemies — again.


7 posted on 08/01/2018 8:16:17 AM PDT by treetopsandroofs
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To: oblomov

If democrats get elected it will be because they lip synch Republican ideals when running - then vote straight Pelosi when they get to DC


8 posted on 08/01/2018 8:16:31 AM PDT by silverleaf (A man who kneels for the national anthem doesn't stand for much of anything)
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To: ClearCase_guy

If there WAS any chance for a Democrat Wave there will surely NOT be after the country has gotten the chance to take a long look at Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

She will scare the living crap out of normal people who will crawl over broken glass to vote Republican.


9 posted on 08/01/2018 8:16:57 AM PDT by Buckeye McFrog
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To: oblomov
Trump is not currently facing a Watergate-level scandal

Correct. Its much WORSE than that ever was by an order of magnitude.

Comparing Watergate to the Russian collusion plot is like comparing stealing candy in a drugstore to a bank robbery.

10 posted on 08/01/2018 8:16:58 AM PDT by Starboard
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To: oblomov

What a giant pantload. Jeeze. His arguement is pubbies lose seats, because the author doesn’t like Trump.

No polls. No facts. Just lame beta male sniffing.

I’m dumber for having read that, thanks for nothing.


11 posted on 08/01/2018 8:17:23 AM PDT by Basket_of_Deplorables ("Trust Sessions" is not a plan. It is subversion of Trump by useful idiots. Fire the DOJ 3 stooges!!)
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To: oblomov
So despite the good economy, Jay is saying that there will be a Dem wave because President Trump is not Presidential? That's not analysis, that's a Never-Trump personal opinion.
12 posted on 08/01/2018 8:17:24 AM PDT by hotsteppa
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To: oblomov
At home, we have a reasonably strong economy, bolstered by the most recently reported growth rate, of 4.1 percent.

Reasonably strong? What data point warrants a qualifier?

13 posted on 08/01/2018 8:17:46 AM PDT by Tenacious 1
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To: MrEdd

Just more wishful thinking from the crowd wearing blinders who keep complaining that Trump has accomplished nothing.

Thay’re flat out FOS.


14 posted on 08/01/2018 8:17:51 AM PDT by To-Whose-Benefit? (It is Error alone which needs the support of Government. The Truth can stand by itself.)
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To: oblomov

Obviously the house is at risk and all the talk about how they got 2016 wrong is not the answer.


15 posted on 08/01/2018 8:18:28 AM PDT by Williams (Stop tolerating the intolerant.)
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To: oblomov

There WILL BE a Blue Wave IF Conservatives get complacent! We must get out the vote to counter all the voter fraud that is built in to the Dem Voter Registration drives. Even if those who cannot vote but are signed up do not actually vote, the Dems at the polling places can just sign and vote for them. There should be billboards up across the country, listing the penalties for voting fraudulently. But then again, Obama told America ‘if you live here, that means you can vote’. What a surprise.....encouraging voter fraud!


16 posted on 08/01/2018 8:19:00 AM PDT by originalbuckeye ('In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act'- George Orwell.a!)
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To: Basket_of_Deplorables

The fact is stupid suburban white women aren’t supportive because “they separated families.”


17 posted on 08/01/2018 8:19:42 AM PDT by Williams (Stop tolerating the intolerant.)
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To: oblomov

Well, sure- with the help of 20+ million illegal votes.


18 posted on 08/01/2018 8:19:43 AM PDT by TADSLOS (All My Rowdy Friends Have Settled Down....)
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To: MrEdd

19 posted on 08/01/2018 8:20:14 AM PDT by OttawaFreeper ("The Gardens was founded by men-sportsmen-who fought for their country" Conn Smythe, 1966)
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To: oblomov

Man, National Review’s webpage design is a disaster. Probably never going there again.

What is more important? The economy stupid or a misbehaving President. I will take the economy!


20 posted on 08/01/2018 8:20:28 AM PDT by CollegeRepublican
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