They already are. Yeah, Baby!
Posted on 07/24/2018 7:21:22 AM PDT by yesthatjallen
President Trump’s approval rating is largely unchanged in the first polls to emerge after his widely criticized performance at last week’s joint press conference with Russian President Vladimir Putin — and Democrats are scratching their heads.
An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released on Sunday showed Trump’s approval rating rising to 45 percent, his highest level in that poll since taking office. And an Economist/YouGov survey showed no significant deviation from Trump’s numbers the previous week.
The polls included some responses before and some after Trump’s July 16 news conference with Putin in Helsinki, meaning it’s possible that a more pronounced negative impact could show up in the next wave of polls. But there is no evidence of such an effect so far.
Democratic explanations for Trump’s resiliency encompass several factors: the strength of the economy; his voters’ tendency to discount negative press coverage as a product of the “fake news media”; and the visceral connection he enjoys with his base, partly because of his willingness to press cultural hot buttons relating to race, immigration and related issues.
But Democrats also argue that Trump’s base is not big enough to bring sustained electoral success, either in November’s midterm elections or in his 2020 reelection race.
Robert Shrum, a Democratic strategist who has worked at a senior level of several presidential campaigns, said pundits were failing to emphasize how Trump’s approval ratings have been low by historical standards.
“If another president had these numbers, his political people would be very worried about it,” Shrum said. “He only cares about his base and, if you look at polls in general, they are in deep trouble for the 2018 election.”
Different findings even within the same polls can lead to very different conclusions, however.
In the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, for example, the share of Americans who said they strongly approve of Trump, 29 percent, was far outweighed by the 44 percent who strongly disapprove.
That should mean Democrats can expect much greater intensity among their base — a factor that could be vital since Democratic-leaning voting blocs tend to turn out less reliably in midterm elections than in presidential contests.
On the other hand, the same poll showed that the Democrats’ lead in the so-called generic ballot — where voters nationwide are asked which party they would prefer to control Congress — had shrunk to 6 percentage points. This is a notable slippage from the 10-point advantage the party enjoyed just a month before.
To some observers, that calls into question the idea of a “blue wave” that might sweep Democrats into power in the House or the Senate after November — even if few independent voices back the president’s claim, made on Twitter last month, that there might be a “Red Wave” for Republicans instead.
Among Democrats, there is a continued faith that things will go their way in November.
Tad Devine, who served as a senior adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders’s (I-Vt.) 2016 presidential campaign, said he believed a takeover of both the House and Senate was a real possibility for Democrats.
“The intensity is there. Democratic voters are paying a lot more attention, they are a lot more interested in participating,” Devine said. He added that the party did not need to adopt a one-size-fits-all approach to framing the election.
“It’s not some big single message,” he said. “We have candidates who are different, unique — what kind of race do we want to run in each district?”
Many Democrats also emphasize the significant swath of the voting public that appears alienated — perhaps permanently — from Trump.
His polarizing approach, they say, makes him more enemies than friends. The effect could be to the detriment of his party.
Referring to Trump’s conduct during the news conference with Putin, and in the days afterward, Democratic strategist Joe Trippi said, “The 55 or 56 percent who say they disapprove of him? I think this really locks that in … This last nine, 10 days or so makes it much tougher for a Republican candidate for Congress to pull them back.”
Opinions diverge as to why Trump himself commands such strong loyalty from his base of support.
Shrum argued that the economic factors were much less relevant than other, gut-level responses.
“I just think there is a deep emotional investment in him by a shrinking Republican Party,” Shrum said, “He speaks to the politics of resentment, he speaks to the anxieties — though I think his remedies are absurd — of people who think they have been left behind, and so they don’t want to give up on him.”
Devine argued that the strong economy played its part as “protective armor” for Trump — but he asserted that an anti-media reflex is also part of the picture.
“Usually the battles are between the Democrats and the Republicans, but in Trump’s case it is himself and the press,” he said. “That’s the battle, and he is delivering these messages to people in his base, and they are responding to it.”
Devine also asserted that support for Trump was more complicated than the headline figures from a poll suggest.
Research from focus groups or voter interviews, he asserted, would reveal “they don’t really like the way Trump has handled himself but they also think he is being attacked unfairly and all this other stuff.”
For the moment, however, the idea of a Trump collapse looks increasingly unrealistic, at least in the short term.
That’s giving his opponents, as well as his supporters, plenty of food for thought.
The GOPe’s (RINO) ability to tear defeat from of the jaws of victory is legendary! Kinda like the Super Bowl 2017, Atlanta ahead 28-3, late in 3rd. GOPe only wins when the Dems lose... and them DemWits are doing their best to out-lose the GOP... or so it seems!
Dem 2018 strategy: When hysterical don’t work... get hystericaler!
The Great Revolt: Inside the Populist Coalition Reshaping American Politics.
Salena Zito
It was blue collar democrats that voted for TRUMP..
Many had not voted for president in years...Both parties ignored them..they talked a good game but did nothing..
There on the Trump train as long as he is president..who knows in 2024
They probably already realize that Pres. Trump’s base is holding firm because pleased with his performance.
Therefore they are going after his base and blame them for his electoral success. That’s each & every one of us who voted for Trump. It’s gotten personal.
Articles denouncing us as deplorables racist sexist fascist bigot homophobe islamophobe, etc AND urging liberals toward violence against those who disagree, are all over the internet. There have already been violent incidents against MAGA hat wearers, cars vandalized and it will get worse over the next three & a half months.
It’s culture war, folks.
Let them believe in a blue wave.
It will motivate the right to vote. And the left to stay home because they are lazy.
Then when they lose it will be even sweeter.
“Opinions diverge as to why Trump himself commands such strong loyalty from his base of support.
Shrum argued that the economic factors were much less relevant than other, gut-level responses.”
Its no longer “the economy, stupid”, now it’s “the culture, stupid”!
Anti-media reflex... also known as fake news awareness syndrome...
His approval this year has been higher than both Obama and Clinton's at similar stage of their presidencies and both got reelected.
Like Rush says...... the deciding events have not yet happened
America’s resilience is the biggest hurdle for the Democrat Party
It’s not a culture war. It’s a real war except the shooting hasn’t yet started in earnest. But it will and when it does, leftists everywhere need to be swinging
#WalkAway
Good point.
We are in a culture war and Trump voters appreciate Trumps' help in the fight.
The lesson here, the one not being learned by some Republicans, is that fighting back makes you more popular with your base.
Republicans lose when they are shown to have backed down in a fight seeking to 'compromise' with liberal Democrats.
Too busy getting stoned and making welfare babies.
If I run into a concrete wall and the wall doesn’t fall down, is that a sign of the wall’s resilience?
I would take a rock solid base of 45% against a wishy-washy majority of 51% any day of the week. In the mid-terms, it’s all about who shows up to the polls, and in the general election, if your base is completely with you, that gives you a lot of leeway to appeal directly to the middle. Especially if the Democrats’ base is smaller, which I think it is, at least where it matters (swing districts/states).
Over the past few years the media has tried to compensate for its waning influence by becoming ever more shrill, extreme, and demanding. Now, rather than swaying overall public opinion, they are merely enraging leftist true believers, alienating moderates, and motivating conservatives.
Said another way, this administration and its supporters have been quite successful in implementing Alinsky's Rule #13: “Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it. Cut off the support network and isolate the target from sympathy."
Truly, what could be more appropriate?
Obama spent practically his entire time in office with approval ratings in the 40s. That’s even with the MSM fellating him every single day.
The author forgot the word 'failed'..."Several FAILED presidential campaigns..."
Tad Devine is a SNARLING PUNK THUG!
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