Are Republicans Doomed? What do Demographics tell us?

American Thinker ^ | 06/30/2018 | By Thomas O'Malley

[SeekAndFind]

For the past several years, political pundits on both sides of the aisle have been predicting a future with a permanent Democratic majority in the United States. As evidence, they point to increasing immigration of races that consistently vote over two to one for Democrats, and to the fact that young people overwhelmingly lean left. Republicans have won the popular vote only once in the past seven presidential elections, and Texas, the jewel in the Republican crown, is forecast to go blue in a decade or two because of its growing Hispanic population. These predictions have led to jubilation among Democrats and foreboding among Republicans.

So is the Republican party doomed? Not necessarily. A permanent Democratic future is preconditioned on all demographic groups continuing to vote for the two main parties at the same rates they do currently. I don't think this will be the case. Specifically, I believe that white voters will begin voting for Republicans in larger numbers than they do now. The reason why is simple: identity politics.

Since the 1960s, the white share of the Democratic vote has steadily been decreasing. Just over half of Hillary Clinton's votes in 2016 came from whites. The Democratic vote will probably be majority-nonwhite in the 2020 election and onward.

In the past, Democrats couldn't afford to alienate whites, because they couldn't win elections without either a majority or near majority of the white vote. Times have changed, and now they can. Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton lost the white vote, but by small margins. Barack Obama lost the white vote by much larger margins – first by 12 points, then by 20. This shows that Democrats can now win elections without the white vote.

[D_Idaho]

As Mark Steyn says: “The future belongs to those who show up.”

[Billthedrill]

Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton lost the white vote, but by small margins. Barack Obama lost the white vote by much larger margins – first by 12 points, then by 20. This shows that Democrats can now win elections without the white vote.

No, that's entirely wrong-headed and I hate to read either Dems or Republicans stating it. What it means is that the Dems can now win elections without a majority of the white vote. They can't entirely discard the demographic - Hillary did and she lost. The Republicans do win quite a lot of elections without a majority of the black vote, but when that black vote went 95% for 0bama, not so much. Hillary could have won with 47% of the white vote, but with 37%, not so much. In theory identity politics rules, in application, it fails because it's too simplistic.

Hillary's now infamous (and often misquoted) statement about the West Virginia coal miners is a case in point. Demographically, she alienated a few white male working-class voters in a specific industry. In practice, she alienated a sizable chunk of the working class, male and female, white and black and Hispanic and Asian, period. Had her campaign been paying attention to that they'd have taken corrective measures long before they did, when it was too late.

People do vote their interests, but those interests aren't always based around the holy liberal trinity of race, sex, and bedroom practices. Their demigod Marx told them so, and they stopped listening. They need to open up from identity politics, not double down on it and face diminishing returns. Sooner or later somebody smart enough to realize that will be in a position to accomplish it, but it doesn't look imminent.

[tet68]

The problem for the democrats is that more and more
minorities will be voting their pocket book.

[laplata]

IAgreed.

The election is tomorrow and he takes office either in Dec. or early Jan. We can hope that he starts spouting his crap immediately and doesn’t stay quiet until after our mid term elections.

[Socon-Econ]

Republicans may or may not be able to influence demographics, but they can surely improve the case they make to the American people. One thing they got going for them is that collectivism does not work.

[laplata]

I understood what yo meant.

A while back there was a group which I can’t remember the name of who went down and patrolled parts of the border. They spotted illegals crossing and pointed them out to the Border Patrol. In their own way, they were intimidating to the wetbacks. I think we would/will see that again but on a much larger scale.

[proxy_user]

‘White’ is very flexible. Many people who are considered ‘white’ today were minorities 100 years ago - Irish, Jews, Italians, Poles.

If ‘Hispanics’ stop speaking Spanish, there is little to distinguish them from the rest of the population.

[IC Ken]

I think our President will become over the years the voice for the working class black man. He knows the inner city is a drain on America and we can do much much better. Jobs solves a lot of problem in these inner cities and they have been totally ignored by the Democrats they support.

Times they are a changing.

[buckalfa]

Demographics is destiny. The GOP "big tenter's" of the prior decades may have been right, yet there is a larger danger now than in the future: the GOPe wing of the Uniparty.

[dead]

Let the left focus on race. We should be post-race.

Focus on small government, liberty and economic strength.

People of all colors are welcome to join us, but they should expect no special considerations or race-based rewards.

One freedom loving colorblind party.

[bert]

The problem is that the big cities are obsolete. I think there must be a new black migration from the cities outward. The old cities will never resume their former prosperity

I like to cite the TV program The Wire. The focus is innercity Baltimore where crime and corruption and poverty and drugs are the norm. There is a dream among a few to escape “to the county” .

Sometimes there are very well off professional and middle class black cousins or siblings portrayed. They left the Baltimore urban nightmare and migrated out to jobs and a better life.

The new economics will determine how far the young black people must migrate to find a better life and prosperity

[FenwickBabbitt]

I think the problem is perhaps as much about DC as South Asians. This is a generalization, but I’ve noticed Asians of all types often reflect the areas where they live long term or where they grew up. Unfortuantely, that means most are leftists, because so many live in blue areas on the coasts. Ones that are from conservative areas and were not brainwashed by leftism in school tend to be more open to voting Republican. Look at Bobby Jindal from Louisiana and Nikki Haley from South Carolina for just two of the most prominent examples. The current leader of India, Modi, is pretty Trump-like and has a lot of supporters here too.

The total Asian vote for Trump was almost exactly the same as the total Hispanic vote for him. We should be able to to do better than this though. Reagan got 50% of the Asian vote after all, but many of those people were legal immigrants, while a lot of Asian voters now are homegrown products of California and New York schools. It’s sad really.

[Karoo]

What do they Dims have going for them? ...hate, nothing but hate and whining. Nobody wants a whiner or a hater.

[laplata]

What do they Dims have going for them? ...hate, nothing but hate and whining. Nobody wants a whiner or a hater.

><

That’s true.

The Dems are in bad trouble. They have nothing positive to offer, are getting crazier by the day and normal people see it and don’t like it.

[sheana]

One word.
California

You would think people would learn from it.

[CTrent1564]

I have thought the same thing if this Marxist gets elected. He has said that he will pardon all previous Drug Cartel leaders and not prosecute any of them going forward (that was what was reported). If he does do that, is it Legally possible to declare the Drug Cartels as essentially terrorist groups. Thus, the Mexican president is harboring terrorist groups near the U.S. Border. THus, the Military could be used to stop the drug cartels who are smuggling both drugs and human beings.

[laplata]

Most native Hispanics do not speak Spanish.

[MacNaughton]

60 Everyone is assuming that the country will stay united. I see the breakup of the states into several countries along ideology happening sometime in the near future. Demographics will reflect how the country divides.

Anyone remember that Russian political scientist, Igor Panarin, and his forecast in the 12/10/2008 Wall Street Journal?

In the summer of 1998, based on classified data about the state of the U.S. economy and society supplied to him by fellow analysts at FAPSI, Panarin forecast the probable (45-55%) disintegration of the US into 6 parts in 2010 following a civil war triggered by mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation. He forecast financial and demographic changes provoking a political crisis in which wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government, effectively seceding from the Union, leading to social unrest, civil war, national division, and intervention of foreign powers.

[loveliberty2]

A "Democratic" Party?

Wish Republicans and MAGA's would stop adding the last syllable to the word, "Democrat"--Democratic describes a totally different set of ideas than does the actual moniker for the "Democrat Party."

Examine the agenda! Democrat Party leadership, agenda and policies are anything but "democratic."

[Destroyer Sailor]

International intervention will not take place do to the nukes that are present in North America. Most of the nukes in the USA are in red states.