Posted on 06/26/2018 6:13:36 PM PDT by Para-Ord.45
A new scientific paper published by a researcher with a Ph.D in computational neuroscience, a nanotechnology researcher, and a moral philosopher theorizes that there is a “substantial probability” that outside of Planet Earth, there is no other intelligent life in the observable universe. The abstract for the paper states that the conflict between the apparently lifeless universe that we observe and the Drake equation, which suggests the sheer multitude of possible sites for intelligent life should yield a large number of potentially observable civilizations, arises from the use of Drake-like equations, which are not necessarily reliable. The paper notes, “But while the equation is often invoked as a way of reasoning about uncertainties and ignorance, the actual practice is often considered to be somewhat suspect. Many papers state that some of their parameter choices are just their best guesses, though this fails to provide an appropriate framework for interpreting the result.”
The abstract notes that “extant scientific knowledge corresponds to uncertainties that span multiple orders of magnitude … When the model is recast to represent realistic distributions of uncertainty, we find a substantial probability of there being no other intelligent life in our observable universe, and thus that there should be little surprise when we fail to detect any signs of it.”
The authors conclude:
When we take account of realistic uncertainty, replacing point estimates by probability distributions that reflect current scientific understanding, we find no reason to be highly confident that the galaxy (or observable universe) contains other civilizations, and thus no longer find our observations in conflict with our prior probabilities. We found qualitatively similar results through two different methods: using the authors’ assessments of current scientific knowledge bearing on key parameters, and using the divergent estimates of these parameters in the astrobiology literature as a proxy for current scientific uncertainty.
When we update this prior in light of the Fermi observation, we find a substantial probability that we are alone in our galaxy, and perhaps even in our observable universe (53%–99.6% and 39%–85% respectively).
(ViaDailyWire)
“Where are they?” —Enrico Fermi
One of my friends has a doctorate in physics and has lectured at Fermilab. He is by no means a “Sheldon” type. He told me once that every theory should be prefaced by the statement: “At out present level of ignorance we assume that........”
And then God made man....
More likely to have anynumber of life forms killing and/or eating you here. Probably some have. Fungi, bacteria, virii, insects,...
There was an analysis in a british paper yesterday that was showcasing a group that just reached the exact opposite conclusion.
When it comes to what we know about this universe, we are as ignorant as fish are about snow skiing.
Or the drive to explore and expand could be exceedingly rare. Hard for us to imagine, but who knows. Or every thinking race falls into a virtual reality hole when they achieve the technology to simulate reality at some level. They might not even have to perfectly simulate it—50% reality simmulation might be good enough as long as nothing bad ever occurs it or something.
Freegards
I feel alone in my observable urban leftist milieu.
We have huge antennas. We have very low noice front ends. We have very narrowband filters. We know how to track and integrate signals from space over time.
And what have we detected?
Nothing. Nada. Rein. Niente.
I don’t have a problem with those thoughts at all.
It will be interesting to see revealed the secrets of the universe.
We’re spending a lot looking for them to no avail. Are they looking for us? I Love Lucy has been heading their way at light speed for over 60 years, and radio a lot longer, still no response.
We’re a really long way from light speed travel, and that ain’t gonna make it work. Lots and lots to think about here. Maybe in a few thousand years one of them will hear Rush and head on over.
Doubting is not the same as unqualified proof either.
The other side of that coin is that there is a spacecraft wandering out there with a greeting from Earth. A greeting from .... a Nazi.
I remember when that episode aired. SNL was funny back then.
Back then.
“:^(
“:^)
The distance away that light can travel during the entire history of the Universe. We can see out to about 14 billion light years, anything past that is over the “horizon” and is not observable. Our observable universe is a globe about 28 billion light years in diameter.
Of the trillions of planets out there, this is all you need to know that we are alone in the universe, but we are not alone with God. We are quite favored in his eyes. No ET, just JC!
In our experience on Earth we find that all forms of life, whenever and wherever they appear, sooner or later includes a predator that will inevitably emerge.
There is no reason to think that interstellar life forms would be exempt from that.
Nothing suggests that the scientists' aim was to somehow show that Earth was special. The intent was to do the math and show the probability of other intelligent life forms.
It seems like a big improvement over the Drake Equation. And it is a methodology that could generate different results if/when the probability distributions they use as inputs are modified.
That doesn’t make sense. You can’t claim the chances of life occurring on its own are non-zero until you CAN demonstrate it happening WITHOUT a creator. And no one has ever been able to do that.
No, you can’t demonstrate a creator, but we know more than enough to know life can’t happen on its own.
To claim otherwise is to indulge the “gambler’s fallacy.”
Talk about arrogance! Where is this empirical knowledge you claim we have?
We have exactly one data point: Earth.
Furthermore, it is the height of inanity to presume by “observation” they mean “see with a telescope.”
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