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Excluding DC, 20 states went for the Butcheress of Benghazi.

Presuming Trump holds all the states he won in 2016 (30), I see him being able to pick up 6 at least:

CO, ME, MN, NH, NV, NM. That takes him to 36.

2 more with a lesser chance: OR, VA. That’s 38.

Now, the remaining 12 (excluding DC), will be very difficult: CA, CT, DE, HI, IL, MD, MA, NJ, NY, RI, VT, WA.

California is too radicalized and I don’t trust vote-counting there.

CT has too many rich White leftists (not impossible to overcome, but I don’t think he can bridge the gap).

DE is too dominated by New Castle/Wilmington. It’s the urban leftist RED cancer on the state. It shouldn’t even be a state. Like CT, he might get within a few points, but the only way Trump could win is if he got a large % of the Black Wilmington vote.

HI. Long ago, it used to veer into patriotic territory on occasion (voting Nixon ‘72, Reagan ‘84), but it has become very radicalized. Unless it magically goes back to past traits, I think it impossible.

IL. The RED cancer of C(r)ook County prevents the sane voting of the rest of the state unless the “R” is a crooked Combiner. They’ll move heaven and earth to assure that even if Trump got a majority of the Black vote, he’d still magically lose.

MD. Excise PG & MontCo Counties along with Bawlamer, you might get somewhere. If Trump had Gov. Hogan’s popularity, he might win, but I doubt it. Too many gubmint workers who vote Commie RED.

MA. I think Trump’s appeal with working-class Whites in the state will increase, but not enough to offset the rest. No GOP candidate for President has won a single county there since 1988.

NJ. Still too many rich leftist Whites and others here who don’t like “winning.” Difficult for Trump, not impossible.

NY. If upstate were its own state, he could win (much like downstate IL), but NYC remains the RED Marxist cancer on the state. Trump could personally deliver $1 million to every voter in the city, and they’d still vote Communist.

RI. Curiously, if Trump carried the aforementioned 8 states, RI could be the 9th. I still think it is slightly out of reach, but the performance between Zero and Hillary dropped a whopping 9%, and she got just 54% (only her husband performed worse in 1992 — even Dukakis did better in 1988). Trump carried a county there for the first time since 1984. I think he could take 3 out of 5 in 2020. But he’s got to hold down the vote in Providence in order to win as Reagan did in ‘84, and that will be as hard as Delaware. But not impossible.

VT. Too many hard-core nutters puts the state out of reach. He did carry a single rural county in the NE corner (Essex), which is the most GOP in the state. But to give you an idea of how far left the state has gone, Reagan got 70% in Essex in ‘84. Trump got 51%. It voted for Zero in ‘08 and ‘12. Dubya carried 4 counties out of 14 in 2000. He carried only Essex in 2004. Unless a mess of Berniecrats wake up out of their stupor, I expect Trump to max out around Dubya’s ‘00 performance in 2020.

WA. The Communist Black Hole of Puget Sound remains the single impediment to Trump’s winning the state, even as his working-class appeal flipped some areas that had stayed Commie Red since before FDR. Too bad we can’t gift the entirety of Puget to British Columbia. It would make WA a Republican Blue state again.