Posted on 06/04/2018 3:00:13 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
RealClearPolitics, which keeps track of polling averages, has some worrying news for Democrats and liberals who were counting on a “blue wave” to sweep them in to power in Congress this November. Since the beginning of this year, more or less, a clear trend has emerged: President Trump's approval rating has gradually risen, while Democrats' lead on the “generic ballot” question in national polls (that asks whether respondents would be more likely to vote for a Democratic or Republican candidate for Congress) has been steadily shrinking. To bring these numbers into sharper perspective, Trump's average approval rating hit a low point in December 2017 of around 37 percent, and it has since rebounded to about 45 percent. Likewise, Democrats held a 13-point lead on the generic ballot six months ago, but now that lead is down to 3 points – a political sea change.
In truth, Republicans should be even more encouraged than these positive numbers suggest, because, as always, most national polling organizations are biased towards Democrats, and their methodologies reflect this. For instance, many polls are based on surveys of “American adults” or “registered voters,” rather than on the more narrow category of “likely voters” who are actually going to determine the results of the midterm elections in November. This skewed approach guarantees that Trump haters will be scooped up in deceptively large numbers. By “oversampling” registered Democrats, minorities, and other anti-Trump demographic categories, pollsters can further depress Republican support and exaggerate Democratic prospects. They know, based on their flawed predictions for the 2016 presidential election, that these methods are potentially disingenuous, but they continue to use them regardless, for the simple reason that they tend to make President Trump and Republicans look like “losers,” and apparently this has become the purpose of the news, as many mainstream journalists see it. The upshot, in any case, is that the current standing of the President and of Republicans among likely voters in the November 2018 midterm elections is probably even stronger than polling averages suggest.
Why has this shift occurred? The reasons for President Trump's rebound are myriad: a more disciplined White House operation (yielding fewer “unforced errors”), a booming economy, declining unemployment, a popular crusade to challenge other countries to end their unfair trade practices, the potential for peace on the Korean Peninsula, the steady delegitimization of the Mueller probe into “Trump-Russia collusion,” and perhaps also the Left's pivot away from collusion and towards less promising anti-Trump narratives, such as the Stormy Daniels farce. Trump also benefits from the dynamism on the hard left of the Democratic Party, which is pushing a radical agenda of impeachment despite efforts by the party's establishment, including Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi, to softpedal the rhetoric of insurrection. Such talk is, as many establishment types realize, a gift to President Trump and all who support him.
Why has this shift occurred? The reasons for President Trump's rebound are myriad: a more disciplined White House operation (yielding fewer “unforced errors”), a booming economy, declining unemployment, a popular crusade to challenge other countries to end their unfair trade practices, the potential for peace on the Korean Peninsula, the steady delegitimization of the Mueller probe into “Trump-Russia collusion,” and perhaps also the Left's pivot away from collusion and towards less promising anti-Trump narratives, such as the Stormy Daniels farce. Trump also benefits from the dynamism on the hard left of the Democratic Party, which is pushing a radical agenda of impeachment despite efforts by the party's establishment, including Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi, to softpedal the rhetoric of insurrection. Such talk is, as many establishment types realize, a gift to President Trump and all who support him.
Republicans running for the House and Senate in November naturally benefit from all of the favorable developments already noted, but in addition they can point to the successful passage of major tax reform and tax cuts, as well as the repeal of the Obamacare mandate, as proof that Republican majorities in Congress can indeed produce results. The inexorable flow of President Trump's conservative judicial nominees onto the federal bench also gives conservatives and Republicans ample reason to turn out and vote in November. Needless to say, hundreds of millions of dollars will be spent by the Republican Party and outside groups to remind conservative and Republican voters of the high stakes in November, on issues as varied as taxes, gun rights, abortion, and illegal immigration. The level of organization and mobilization by conservative groups will be unprecedented.
As a result of all these developments, analysts are dialing back their predictions of a blue wave, and in fact most credible commentators now expect Republicans to gain seats in the Senate, which would ensure that the refreshingly red tide washing over the federal courts will, if anything, pick up steam in 2019 and 2020. No one can say for sure, but there is now an excellent chance that the midterm elections will produce a severe disappointment for Democrats and liberals. This means an even more Republican Senate, and a House that remains under Republican control. Likewise, Republicans may hang on to their dominant position in governorships and state legislatures.
Assuming that recent polling trends continue, and Republicans dodge the bullet of a blue wave in 2018, the really interesting question that will emerge is this: how will Democrats and leftists react? The election of President Trump was already a body blow to the Left. The only thing that has brought liberals some cheer since then is the idea that Trump is a buffoon who will surely self-destruct, taking the Republican Party down with him. Many polls since November 2016 have supported (by design, it must be said) this leftist conceit. Should Democrats lose in 2018, however, it is hard to imagine that there will not be a reckoning between the Democratic establishment and the hard left in this country, which will surely blame one another for their latest joint humiliation.
In that case, I would confidently predict that President Trump will ride the circular firing squad that will emerge on the Left all the way to victory in 2020. What will be left of “progressives” after that is anyone's guess.
November 6, 2018 is the only poll that counts>
And just think where we would be if we had a Republican Congress that didn’t actively try to tank President Trump. We need to screw these guys right out of their chairs in November.
Excellent!
How long before the news media decides that red is a more favorable color than blue and swap the colors again?
“November 6, 2018 is the only poll that counts>”
Rush was saying the left thinks that the exit polling is more reliable. Hahahahaha
Blue wave becomes a yellow stream. At least they can write their names in the snow.
don’t say “excellent” just yet....the rats are motivated and have the GOTV advantage via their hatred for Trump...the stupid party/GOPe has done nothing to encourage its base...
my concern is unlike 2010 and 2014 when we had the Tea Party kicking butt and taking names, i don’t see any real conservative grass roots movement to push the GOTV at this point..
Yes, certainly, the Democrats will be devastated if they don’t take the House in November, and it’s hard to imagine the level of despondency that will take hold if Trump wins reelection in 2020. In theory, that would be the time to take the Party out of the hands of the far left, but I’m not sure that there are enough rational Democrats left to be able to do that.
This issue is raised early in every election year.
First, assessments of political polls must consider the client, the person or entity that pays for the poll. Almost all public polls are paid for by the media. The media use polls to supplement their stories and to generate interest in their news products. They want a certain outcome of their investment and the outcome changes as the election day becomes closer. The polls that we see now are an opportunity to advance the media’s preference for an upcoming election. Since, they can never been held accountable for the results of early polls, they can use whatever methodology they think will get the result they want. When the election is imminent, the media must change their methodology because the actual election result will be compared with their polls. They have to be more accurate. In 2016, they were so confident of the outcome, they didn’t think that they needed to calibrate their polls. They could report a Clinton blowout because they knew that would be the result. Oops.
Second, the pollsters always claim that these early polls include “all Americans”, or “registered voters” because it’s too early to know who will vote in November. This may be true, but it will give the result they want. These populations will always favor the Democrats since many of these people will not bother to vote. So, they know that the result will be skewed. They could adjust the result using historical data, but it would defeat one of their purpose of these early polls.
The best advise: ignore the bottom line poll result, just watch for the trends, and the trends right now favor the Republicans.
The excellent was for the graphic.
Yes, I’m aware that the GOPe has a long record of snatching defeat from victory. And that victory is far from assured even if the GOPe wasn’t stupid.
Why has this shift occurred? The reasons for President Trump's rebound are myriad...
Number one, there is no shift -- he's never lost support, the books were cooked each and every time some partisan media shill wanted to smear him.WE HAVE ONE JOB -- SHOW UP IN NOVEMBER.
Good assessment.
when it comes to their own primaries they’re right
One number that I will pay close attention to is the black male (outside the inner city) vote for ages 21-35
Just think, during the entire six-month period that the Democrats have lost 10 points in the generic ballot, not a minute has gone by that the liberal media has not denounced, ridiculed, and attacked Donald Trump.
Bring on the Red Tsunami!
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