Posted on 03/22/2018 10:52:54 PM PDT by drop 50 and fire for effect
As a foreigner in China, you get used to hearing the retort “You don’t know China!” spat at you by locals. It’s usually a knee-jerk reaction to some uncomfortable modern issue or in defense of one of the many historical myths children in the mainland are taught as unshakeable facts about the world. But it’s also true. We don’t know China. Nor, however, do the Chinese — not even the government.
We don’t know China because, in ways that have generally not been acknowledged, virtually every piece of information issued from or about the country is unreliable, partial, or distorted. The sheer scale of the country, mixed with a regime of ever-growing censorship and a pervasive paranoia about sharing information, has crippled our ability to know China. Official data is repeatedly smoothed for both propaganda purposes and individual career ambitions. That goes as much for Chinese as it does for foreigners; access may sometimes be easier for Chinese citizens, but the costs of going after information can be even higher.
We don’t know the real figures for GDP growth, for example. GDP growth has long been one of the main criteria used to judge officials’ careers — as a result, the relevant data is warped at every level, since the folk reporting it are the same ones benefitting from it being high. If you add up the GDP figures issued by the provinces, the sum is 10 percent higher than the figure ultimately issued by the national government, which in itself is tweaked to hit politicized targets. Provincial governments have increasingly admitted to this in recent years, but the fakery has been going on for decades. We don’t know the extent of bad loans, routinely concealed by banks. We don’t know the makeup of most Chinese financial assets.
(Excerpt) Read more at foreignpolicy.com ...
Drop 50’s post is correct. Its not about whether you are “free” to watch movies and eat McDonalds.
My understanding is that in China: the elephant in the room is its Maoist genocidal past. There is deep shame and suppressed guilt, and massive-massive coverup and denial of the collective hand society had in the Cultural Revolution — the dark effects of which linger and haunt China to this day.
The one child policy also has had traumatic effects especially for women who underwent enforced/forced abortions.
You are not even allowed to discuss tragedies and government crimes like Tianenmen Square massacre in the open.
And there is this intense pressure to keep up “modern” appearances even with all this historical, cultural baggage left unattended to.
It may be Rumsfeld's theory now, but I recall hearing it enunciated decades before Rumsfeld's pronouncement of it.
If the US market is closed to their goods they will not be able to pay their debt. Disaster awaits.
You are correct. Being embargoed with respect to the US market would devastate the Chinese economy. Just like being cut off from US oil shipments in 1941 was seen as a devastating move against the Japanese economy.
The question is, what would be the Chinese response?
The issue is not uncensored and candid, but rather accuracy. The Chinese system is layered and the path from the data provider at the local level to the General Secretary is long.
The argument from the author, which I believe has merit, is that given the cultural and bureaucratic environment, the raw data used is itself suspect.
As long as things are well in hand, the status quo will continue.
The Party may honestly believe (and it could be true) that things are well in hand, but there could be something out there, unseen by the available data, that is lurking, the classic "black swan."
To revisit your Soviet example, Gorbachev and the Politburo thought they had things well in hand, until 1989. Nobody in the Party, the government, their intelligence community, academia, the military, or in the Western equivalents foresaw just how quickly that house of cards would collapse.
I once heard a Navy flag officer wax eloquently about “perfect situational awareness” the idea that computers and sensors would provide a commander all the information they would ever need.
Then Iraq and Afghanistan happened, and Heisenberg b-—h slapped us (DoD) in the face and reminded us about reality.
Maybe they will refuse to ship any more cheap garbage to Walmart. I guess Walmart will have to source their cheap garbage somewhere else.
There is nothing that the west imports from China that we cannot make ourselves. Some point to Chinese production of rare earths as irreplaceable but they are wrong. There are many rare earth deposits in North America just waiting to be exploited.
China is a net importer of energy, specifically crude oil from the middle east. Cheap, plentiful energy is the engine of a modern economy. Cut it off or increase the price and China suffers immediately.
Furthermore Chinese cities are choking on air pollution and withering from a lack of clean, potable water. This is a huge public health problem that gets worse by the day.
History must be utterly mystifying to someone who thinks every event occurs in a vacuum, totally unrelated to any other event...
China isn’t the only country whose official government statistics can’t be trusted.
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts
we do know there is a large population segment that is young and upwardly mobile and urban and tuned to the digital life. These youth are not fans of the old communist ways.
Xi must tread carefully to govern such an educated and ambitious segment. They are the future. They are the Chicaps.
“What do you think of China?” - President “Bobby’
“It’s full of Chinese.” - Chauncy Gardner.
“You can’t unbake a cake.”
- D. Rumsfeld
I work with a lot of Chinese, including FOBs with little outside experience.
They have no idea of their own history. They are incredulous when I tell them basic facts about Chinese recent history.
The young ones don't know about Tienamen Square. The older ones are afraid, even here, to talk about it. It's like a survival mechanism, I think, but who knows, because ultimately they are inscrutable.
Chinese smog is regularly sensed by California air quality monitors. It is that bad!
History must be utterly mystifying to someone who thinks every event occurs in a vacuum, totally unrelated to any other event..
Exactly. The Japanese leadership prior to and during the Second World War were masters of self-delusion and underestimating the response of their enemies.
Never underestimate the ability of people to fool themselves
And never ever forget that we too are people.
But Xi won’t. And the new wealthy will revolt as the current unsustainable system starts to crumble. The US needs to wean ourselves off of the opium pipe that is cheap Chines goods before that happens. Trump’s tariffs may help in that.
I disagree...... Xi sees the future. Hong Kong and the Pearl river Delta region are the future and they have hordes of youth flocking there.
I believe Xi took the lifetime job to begin weaning off the hardline communist stance. The hardline old timers are not the future. The wealth of his nation is already well into the process of transition from what is to something unknown influenced by the educated and upwardly mobile young people
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
