Posted on 03/22/2018 8:41:23 AM PDT by Kaslin
Democrats must pick up 23 seats to win a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives this November. They have plenty of openings since 68 seats currently held by Republicans are at varying levels of risk.
A race-by-race analysis at ScottRasmussen.com shows that 28 of these Republican seats are at a high level of risk (Democrat favored, Toss-Up, Tilt Republican). Fourteen more are modestly competitive while leaning in the GOP direction. Finally, 26 others might be at risk depending upon the political environment this fall.
Seven Republican seats are already tilting or leaning to the Democrats. These are races where Republican incumbents like Frank LoBiondo (NJ-2) and Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (FL-27) retired.
Another 13 races are rated as pure toss-ups bringing the number of top-tier Democratic opportunities to 20. Five (5) are found in Pennsylvania due to a court-ordered redistricting plan and most are suburban districts.
Given that midterm election dynamics typically favor the party out of power, all 20 GOP seats rated as toss-ups or tilting in the Democratic direction could easily flip from R to D in November. Adding to the challenge for Republicans is that there are very few opportunities for GOP gains. Only two Democratic seats are rated as toss-ups.
While these realities are encouraging for Democrats, they can't win the majority without defeating some Republican candidates who are currently favored. In fact, control might be determined by the results in eight (8) Republican seats currently rated as barely tilting in favor of the incumbent party. While each race has its own distinct characteristics, the results are likely to be reflective of the national political dialogue.
For example, Minnesota-3 could be decided by the electoral power of the Republican tax-cuts. In a district Clinton won by 9 points, Democrats hope to use that issue against incumbent Republican Erik Paulsen. On the other hand, Paulsen believes that "tax cuts and regulatory reform have created real momentum in our economy." If the tax cut message works, it will help Paulsen keep his job along with many other Republicans in competitive districts.
In Texas-3, John Culberson was seen early on as a potential target for Democrats. Clinton narrowly won his district and the incumbent was slow to build a campaign team and fundraise. But he may have caught a break due to the deep divide between progressives and more centrist candidates. National Democratic strategists openly opposed progressive Laura Moser in the primary, but she made it to the run-off anyhow.
The Democratic civil war may benefit Culberson and other Republicans hoping to keep their jobs. If progressive candidates like Moser are nominated, it could turn off more pragmatic voters. On the other hand, if more centrist Democrats are nominated, it's not clear whether progressive voters will maintain their enthusiasm to vote in November.
If tax cuts and the Democratic civil war help candidates like Paulsen and Culberson win, the GOP might have a decent election night and retain narrow control of the House. Still, even a good night for Paul Ryan's party would probably mean losing 15-20 seats.
On the other hand, there's a lot of potential upside for the Democrats. With 68 Republican seats at risk, Nancy Pelosi's team can dream of a victory as big as the Republican gains in 2010.
The senate is not at risk, Republicans will almost certainly gain several senate seats...
However, if their plan in the fall messaging wise, is the same messaging they used in PA-18 special election they will easily lose the house.
I have never seen such complete incompetence in all my life as I saw out of the entire GOP ecosphere for PA-18.
You know what, I say, “Go Ahead, Make My Day”, if they want to try to Impeach Trump.
It will blow up big-time if they try, and they know it. But it gets the base excited.
There is that too.
Our problem is that so many have a permanent longing for “the democracy.” They believe the rhetoric about “the democracy” for the “common man.”
It’s not incompetence...GOP leadership wants Trump to fail.
On Judges alone the value of GOP control of Cogress has been proven beyond worth.
If you back Trump, you work your ass off to hold Congress. Without Congress Trump will be impeached. The Democrats are no long sane. They are a party of foaming at the mouth lunatics. Do not buy the same lies people did in 2006.
In 2006 Democrats tried the same thing. The ran as if they were GOPer and then went to DC and did just want the DNC told them to do.
The risks to the Republic from the Dems right now are far too high for another temper tantrum at the ballot box in 2018
On Judges alone the value of GOP control of Cogress has been proven beyond worth.
If you back Trump, you work your ass off to hold Congress. Without Congress Trump will be impeached. The Democrats are no long sane. They are a party of foaming at the mouth lunatics. Do not buy the same lies people did in 2006.
In 2006 Democrats tried the same thing. The ran as if they were GOPer and then went to DC and did just want the DNC told them to do.
The risks to the Republic from the Dems right now are far too high for another temper tantrum at the ballot box in 2018
On Judges alone the value of GOP control of Cogress has been proven beyond worth.
If you back Trump, you work your ass off to hold Congress. Without Congress Trump will be impeached. The Democrats are no long sane. They are a party of foaming at the mouth lunatics. Do not buy the same lies people did in 2006.
In 2006 Democrats tried the same thing. The ran as if they were GOPer and then went to DC and did just want the DNC told them to do.
The risks to the Republic from the Dems right now are far too high for another temper tantrum at the ballot box in 2018
No it will not. Counting on “Impeaching Trump” back firing when they control the mass media and the messaging is a risk you cannot take.
No surprise our resident Democrat pretending to be a Conservative is here.
Don’t you ever get tired of being a PR bot for the Democrat Party?
Actually almost all Democrat seats are at risk since they will be running on a promise to raise taxes impeach Trump grant amesty to anyone, mocking White Christians and explaining away multiple indictments.
That would fit the plan of the Uniparty perfectly. Then the so-called "Republicans" of the Uniparty could tut-tut that it is all so unfortunate that Trump was so very divisive. They would have liked to help, but their hands are tied. And then the same rat-f*ck Republicans would promise, promise, promise to fix everything if you'd only send them some campaign money and vote them in.
The same BS goes on with the Dem side. The only point being to maintain the status quo.
You’re the one promoting Democrats with R’s by their name.
Do you ever get tired of being a PR bot for the Democrat Party?
I’m not interested in supporting your liberal party, sorry.
I wouldn't count on a 2/3 Dem vote in the senate. However, if Dems took the House and voted for impeachment it would slow DJT down.
Screw that. I'm done getting screwed by the GOP. It's time to hand it all over to the left, let it crash and go to work. I'm done getting the shaft.
Well said.
Well buckle up, baby, it's gonna be a helluva ride, thanks to folks like me that are done getting screwed by the GOP. Piss on 'em. And as far as Trump being impeached, well, chances are he's out in 2020 anyhow, especially with the omnibus bill they are working on now.
I hear ya', brother - I'm in deep blue Konnecticut - where elections are decided by the welfare recipients in Bridgeport, Hartford, and New Haven.
The House just passed the spending bill, otherwise known as plan to give House back to Democrats without really trying.
Which is why the "true believer" libs want desperately to disarm us. The rest are just lemmings.
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