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The Trump Economy: Is 3% GDP Growth Realistic?
IBD ^
| 02/27/2018
| Robert Samuelson
Posted on 02/27/2018 8:16:15 AM PST by SeekAndFind
The role of economic growth in advanced democracies is not mainly the accumulation of more material goods. By any historical norm, even today's poor are staggeringly wealthy.
XEconomic growth plays a more subtle role. It gives people a sense that they are getting ahead and are in control of their lives. It serves as the social glue that holds us together and counteracts -- to some extent -- the influences of race, class, religion, ethnicity and geography, which drive us apart.
But what if economic growth can no longer perform this vital function? What if the economy has entered a prolonged period of slow growth that frustrates millions of Americans? What if the glue no longer holds? These questions are already posed by rising economic inequality. Now the debate enters a new phase with the release of President Trump's first annual economic report and the more scholarly Report of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA).
These documents frame the economic debate between Trump and his detractors. "The (Trump) economic forecast ... is the most absurd I've ever seen," Harvard economist Jason Furman, chairman of President Obama's CEA, told Vox's Dylan Matthews. Trump's economists estimate the economy will grow 3% annually for the next decade; Furman and others say about 2%t. The difference is huge.
To understand the debate, look at the table below. As it shows, economic growth can be separated into two factors: labor force growth -- the number of workers; and workers' productivity (efficiency) -- what they produce. Add these factors together, and you get the economy's overall growth rate.
The figures portray history. In the first decades after World War II (1950-1973), both the labor force and productivity grew rapidly. Women were beginning to take paid jobs in large numbers.
(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...
TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: economy; gdp; trumpeconomy
To: SeekAndFind
Absurd.
Government policies for the past 20-30 years have been practically designed to hamstring the US economy. If we just stop being stupid, we will grow rapidly. But the Elitists want us to continue to be stupid.
2
posted on
02/27/2018 8:19:04 AM PST
by
ClearCase_guy
(The government cannot protect you and isn't even trying. Self-defense is a right.)
To: ClearCase_guy
I love how one of Obama’s jack@$$ (ahem), “economists” is pooh pooing it. They gave us 8 years of Carter like malaise.
3
posted on
02/27/2018 8:24:09 AM PST
by
KC_Conspirator
(Paulie 'Walnuts' Gualtieri: [turning to Christopher] You're not gonna believe this. He killed sixtee)
To: SeekAndFind
Can someone point me to a CBO projection that proved to be accurate?
4
posted on
02/27/2018 8:27:39 AM PST
by
Thom Pain
(The purpose of the U.S. Constitution is to protect us from our Government)
To: SeekAndFind
These leftist economists are as useless as Monopoly money. If federal and state governments stop controlling and regulating American businesses this economy will explode!
5
posted on
02/27/2018 8:28:29 AM PST
by
dowcaet
To: SeekAndFind
The trade deficit is a huge factor in gdp. It isn’t mentioned in the chart. I wonder why?
The higher the trade deficit, the lower the gdp. The lower the trade deficit, the higher the gdp.
Trump can dramatically affect the GDP, if he can lower the trade deficit.
This is a major focus of his policy and it’s totally overlooked by most when they discuss economic growth.
6
posted on
02/27/2018 8:37:37 AM PST
by
xzins
(Retired US Army chaplain. Support our troops by praying for their victory.)
To: ClearCase_guy
Not so fast. Government policy can’t overcome demographics. Growth will not really take off until around 2025. Too many crosscurrents and tens of millions of people retiring and slowing their spending.
7
posted on
02/27/2018 8:38:16 AM PST
by
SaxxonWoods
(DACA is going to be a riot!)
To: SeekAndFind
A 3% or higher annual growth is not outside the realm of possibility for this year. A 3% per year growth for an entire decade is highly unlikely.
To: SeekAndFind
I predicted 7% growth in 2018 because of the tax cuts.
And I am standing by it.
9
posted on
02/27/2018 8:43:13 AM PST
by
Mr. K
(No consequence of repealing Obamacare is worse than Obamacare itself.)
To: SeekAndFind
Isn’t our goal 4% for 2018?
10
posted on
02/27/2018 8:52:34 AM PST
by
New Jersey Realist
( (Be Nice To Your Kids. They Will Pick Out Your Nursing Home))
To: DoodleDawg
11
posted on
02/27/2018 8:58:09 AM PST
by
SaxxonWoods
(DACA is going to be a riot!)
To: ClearCase_guy
Last I saw the projection for this quarter is around 5% growth... last year was just shy of 3 and the tax cuts weren’t even in effect. 3% is easy peasy lemon squeezy... I fully expect growth well above it once things get moving.
To: HamiltonJay
If we got rid of 2,500,000 government workers the economy would do great..
13
posted on
02/27/2018 9:09:26 AM PST
by
Hojczyk
To: SeekAndFind
The role of economic growth in advanced democracies is not mainly the accumulation of more material goods.
Economic growth plays a more subtle role. It gives people a sense that they are getting ahead and are in control of their lives.
And that sense of getting ahead and being in control is measured by the accumulation of material goods.
Sorry, Mr Samuelson, I’m not in the mood for spiraling illogic todaay.
14
posted on
02/27/2018 10:23:17 AM PST
by
sparklite2
(See more at Sparklite Times)
To: SeekAndFind
4% is well within reach.
Suck on that Hussein. And democrats.
5.56mm
15
posted on
02/27/2018 10:31:17 AM PST
by
M Kehoe
To: HamiltonJay
>>>Last I saw the projection for this quarter is around 5% growth
The Atlanta Fed’s GDP tracker saw 1Q18 growth north of 5% earlier this month, and 3.2% as recently as Feb. 16. That’s dipped to just 2.6% today, following this morning’s durable goods report and yesterday’s housing numbers.
16
posted on
02/27/2018 11:17:23 AM PST
by
oincobx
To: SeekAndFind
President Trump needs his whole eight years with a majority Republican Congress to improve the economy much. It will take much more time and effort to coax many more manufacturers into our country.
Democrat voters have a monster wave going for the midterm elections this year to get majorities enough in Congress to impeach the President, have firearms confiscated and bring the third world into citizenship. They’re really excited about it, so their levels and volumes of chatter in some of their discussions are unusual to see. The complacency in Republican discussions in light of this is rather unsettling.
17
posted on
02/27/2018 11:25:57 AM PST
by
familyop
(President Trump said that we're all important, so let's do something!)
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