Posted on 12/30/2017 9:12:45 PM PST by Oshkalaboomboom
To predict how 2017 played out would be like buying a thousand dollars in Bitcoin the day it was released and holding on to it while remembering your password – in other words, it was very unlikely. Looking forward to 2018 is probably just as crazy an idea as 2017 was a year, but the beauty of writing and punditry is never being held responsible for your failed predictions, so let’s, once again, look into the windshield rather than the rearview mirror.
Right off the bat, I’m going big: there will be a vacancy on the Supreme Court. I don’t know if it will be a retirement or death, but there are too many members approaching 90 for something not to give. I don’t know who, and I don’t wish any of them ill, but my spidey sense is tingling.
If there is an opening, expect all Hell to break loose. All the craziness to this point will look like a cold cup of milk compared to the rhetoric and near-riots that will occur should President Donald Trump get a second pick for the high court in two years.
And if it’s a liberal justice being replace, hold on to your hats because cities will burn. If, say, Ruth Bader Ginsburg were to leave the bench, the reaction will make the “Purge” movies look like children’s cartoons compared to the freak out MSNBC and every left-wing protest group will turn into.
Democrats will scream that any replacement should wait until after the mid-term elections, while Republicans look to move quickly. Thanks to the example set by former Senator Harry Reid, and the fact that Republicans will have a (very slim) majority, Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will push through a nominee without a single vote from a Democrat.
This leads to number two: the mid-terms. This is a close call. If I’m placing a bet right now I say Republicans lose big, control of the Senate and maybe the House. But I’m not placing a bet right now because the election is 11 months away, and a week is a lifetime in politics.
If the economy continues to grow, primed by the new tax law, and Republicans will stand a chance of gains where they need them most – the Senate. It should have been a great year for them, with the possibility of a super-majority within their grasp based on which seats are up and where Trump won. But the fate of the Senate is now up in the air, drifting leftward at the moment, thanks to legislative failures and an activist media no longer interested in even pretending to be impartial. Barring incontrovertibly good economic news coupled with an ability to claim credit for it over and around the media noise working to deny its existence, Republicans will lose 3-4 seats and the majority.
Do I believe Republicans can pull it off? Of course. But it’s also the same Republican Party that has blown many elections they should have won in recent years by nominating horrible candidates, so anything is possible. My best guess, should everything break their way, Republicans will gain 1-2 seats. This will maintain the majority but also the status quo, with a filibuster still blocking major legislation.
For prediction three I’m going with something pretty easy, so at least I get one right.
After a year of retractions and corrections, the media will fall further down their hate spiral and continue to embarrass themselves. This one requires no explanation.
Finally, the dominos will continue to fall in the sexual harassment scandal washing over Hollywood, journalism, and politics. Democrats tried to weaponize sexual harassment against Roy Moore, fully expecting him to win a Senate seat in Alabama. He didn’t win, but the liberal embrace of “the victim is always right” has gone past the point of being able to put that toothpaste back in the tube.
Democrats sacrificed Al Franken and John Conyers so they could use Roy Moore to attack Donald Trump for the next year, not because they cared with Franken and Conyers did. Voters in Alabama gave the Democrats one more vote in the Senate but they robbed them of their weapon of choice: the high ground. They can’t point to a Senator Roy Moore and say, “See, we got rid of ours and theirs is sitting in the Senate.”
While Moore won’t be Member of Congress, there will be plenty of other perverts exposed to keep the movement rolling. More congressional staffers will come forward and more settlements with our money will be exposed. More of the US Capitol will be shown to resemble a brothel than a place of reverence than people can even imagine. At least it should be.
Maybe these aren’t the most daring of predictions, and some are simply hopes. But if the future holds anything it’s the hope that tomorrow will be better than today. If you lose that, what’s the point in anything?
Happy New Year.
The Republicans have to gain a bunch of Senate seats this year because in 2020, they will have to defend many more and tougher seats in order to retain a majority. Without a majority in the Senate, Trump’s judges and other agenda won’t get through.
The Democrats have about 25 Senate seats up for election. Of those about half are considerd vulnerable. The GOP only has to defend about 10 seats, of which only 2 seem questionable.
Looking at this landscape odds are the GOP picks up. Fee net seats in the Senate.
A complicating factor is that the Democrat party is broke right now. Fundraising is in the toilet as we enter these mid term elections. Which will make it that much tougher for the party to support their vulnerable Senate candidates.
Which also suggests that the money flows to the races they think they have the best chance in. Which also suggests that some vulnerable Democrats will be cut loose moneywise to sink or swim. Which also suggests that the Democrats are going to prepare to.lose a few Senate seats.
The House is a different story
Prediction 2: Republicans pick up 8 seats in the Senate. Just short of super-majority. Then in 2020 we pick up 5 more seats.
Prediction 3: Republicans pick up a hand full of Congressional seats (4-7). As usual, the vast majority of the seats are gerrymandered as safe districts on both sides.
Prediction 4: We get an actual budget passed. The wall has some funding in that budget, but not as much as desired.
Prediction 5: The infrastructure bill is passed.
Prediction 6: Black unemployment drops by another percentage point or close to it by the November election.
Prediction 7: President Trump's approval rating in Rasmussen goes over 50%. The democrats and their media bullies go even more nuts. Prediction 8: GDP goes over 4% early on in the year and makes it more likely to get health care reform after the 2018 elections. Prediction 9: The Republicans will shy away from anything that will upset the potential 2018 Senate seat pickups. Prediction 10: After the 2018 elections (maybe even before if the tactics are done right), the North Korea nuclear program will come to an end. If after the elections, the regime will also likely come to an end.
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