Posted on 12/13/2017 12:25:07 PM PST by Kaslin
A new national survey conducted by Marist College's polling operation shows that a 52 percent majority of US voters believe the Republican tax reform proposal will negatively impact their personal financial situation. Less than one-in-three respondents think they'll benefit. This overwhelmingly inaccurate perception represents the fruit of Democrats' media-aided labor over recent weeks, as they've flooded the national debate with factually false assertions and ludicrous hysteria. The truth, as we've relayed on numerous occasions, is that nonpartisan analyses of the plan have concluded that on average, every income group will receive a tax cut -- including, if not especially, the middle class. I have not shied away from conceding potential negative outcomes for certain taxpayers, nor have I dismissed deficit-related concerns; the fact remains, however, that the exceedingly lopsided majority of taxpayers will see their tax burdens lowered and after-tax incomes rise under the Republican bill. The green dots below represent middle class households currently taking the standard deduction that will see a tax reduction (the red dots are the very rare exceptions):
NYT editors, today: GOP tax reform doesn't help the middle class.
NYT news analysis, yesterday: Virtually every single middle-income taxpayer who takes the standard deduction (70%! of filers) will get a tax cut, as will a substantial majority of those who itemize. pic.twitter.com/PuOhZcXzLY— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 29, 2017
Roughly 70 percent of filers already take the standard deduction (a number expected to expand), which is set to approximately double under the legislation. Virtually every single one of these people would emerge as net winners. And according to a New York Times analysis, a substantial majority of middle income filers who itemize (rather than taking the standard deduction) would also see their tax bill decrease. As we explained yesterday, most of the scare-mongering talking points employed by Democrats to achieve the polling results mentioned above -- if not entirely made up -- are rooted in cherry-picked information and misrepresentation. Only a small sliver of taxpayers (in the ballpark of ten percent) might expect to see their tax bill rise due to tax reform, and those are disproportionately wealthier itemizers who live in high-tax blue states. Here's the political question Republicans need to ask themselves: Will real facts and empirical reality regain the high ground once Americans actually, you know, file their post-reform taxes? If so, the vast majority of taxpayers will realize that Democrats were lying to them. Conservative policy wonk and activist Phil Kerpen is urging people to calculate their own tax scenario using this online tool:
A political strategy completely at odds with reality seems unlikely to end well. Are you going to believe Dems/media or your lying paycheck? https://t.co/2L1M1U05OH— Phil Kerpen (@kerpen) December 12, 2017
The nonpartisan Tax Foundation also ran the numbers on how a wide array of American families would fare under reform, concluding that every household they profiled came out ahead:
Nonpartisan Tax Foundation analysis of Senate tax bill: "Our results indicate a reduction in tax liability for every scenario we modeled, with some of the largest cuts accruing to moderate-income families with children." Lower taxes & higher post-tax income across the board... pic.twitter.com/SPoRFBAYfF— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 28, 2017
The follow-up question for Republicans is, even if a massive supermajority of Americans do experience tax relief, will the media and Democrats try to drown out those stories by showcasing individual negative cases? The GOP should count on it, and develop an aggressive messaging strategy to highlight the countless winners under reform, constantly beating the drum about how Democrats' (literally) apocalyptic predictions were embarrassingly wrong. Unlike Obamacare, which spat out significantly more losers than winners after everyone was promised utopia, many, many more taxpayers will benefit from the Republican plan than will feel a setback -- to say nothing of independent projections of faster economic growth and the creation of nearly one million new full-time jobs. Meanwhile, here's a late-breaking detail about the compromise framework that has reportedly been reached ahead of the now-ongoing conference committee's work:
GOP final tax bill details, per two sources briefed:
* 21% corporate rate
* 37% top individual rate
* 20% pass-through deduction
* $750k for mortgage interest— Ylan Q. Mui (@ylanmui) December 12, 2017
The highest tax bracket will receive a small rate cut after all (the House bill didn't include a rate cut at the top), and the corporate tax cut was scaled back by one percentage point. Is the revenue attached to that slight uptick in the proposed corporate rate being put to the best use, policy-wise or politically? Ramesh Ponnuru says no, and I'm inclined to agree (as is Marco Rubio, incidentally):
So that 20% corporate tax rate turned out not be the non-negotiable line in the sand we were told it was. https://t.co/L43jjkyNsl— Ramesh Ponnuru (@RameshPonnuru) December 12, 2017
I'll leave you with a strong editorial in favor of reform, which posits that once tax reform is implemented and Americans see the results, liberal myths "will be demolished by reality." Also, read this report about economic bullishness among American manufacturers in anticipation of pro-growth reform. Quote: "63 percent of [manufacturing] CEOs said business tax reform would encourage capital spending and more than half said they would expand their businesses."
We are by no means wealthy and all the numbers I’ve ran says ours go up. I’d call us healthy middle class.
Good luck with that!
We are so effed.
In a State like Florida, where Trump only won by 100,000 votes, the combination of a couple of hundred thousand Puerto Ricans moving here and the PISSED OFF middle class families that itemize their deductions and will be seeing their taxable income SKYROCKET ensures that he doesn’t get re elected in 2020.
By the way, my goddamned medical deductible is still $6,800 up from $500 before Obamacare, the GOP hasn’t done dick about that, but they have figured out a way to make pay their corrupt degenerate criminal asses another $12,000 a year.
I want the same goddamned deductions that corporations can take, he didn’t run on this because if he did, HE WOULDN’T HAVE WON IN THE FIRST PLACE.
Well that’s a helpful suggestion...NOT!
And paying $19,000 per year on interest alone? OK, if you say so.......You're certainly in a higher income bracket than I ever was and definitely in a higher taxed state than where I live..........
If you can’t even figure out mortgage interest deductions you really ought not to be commenting on threads like this.
TRUMP DIDN’T CAMPAIGN ON TAKING AWAY THE STATE AND LOCAL INCOME TAX DEDUCTION FROM W-2 WORKERS.
THIS IS THE BIGGEST SCAM IN AMERICAN HISTORY
I'm totally aware of that knucklehead.........Sheesh!
You might want to direct your comment to Mariner..........
“WE do not know for a certainty what’s in it”
Is it your contention that both the House and Senate bills will not be the basis for the “reform”?
That they are deceiving us and they will bring something completely different out of conference?
The bill makes me choose either to take state and local taxes or property tax deductions. It doubles the standard deduction as well. I am in NJ. All in all it lowers my tax bill overall which I am happy about. I do not like that it raises taxes for some. Simple solution would have to been to slash rates from top to bottom and corp tax rates as well. A one page bill.
Your taxable income is only one data point.
What are the marginal tax brackets? What are the thresholds?
Your taxable income could go up, and your tax liability still go down.
Darn. I just finished telling all my clients to defer income into next year because of lower tax rates. Guess I better retract my advice.
And my clients are in CT.
A majority of the people in the US think they pay income taxes. They don’t. They pay FICA and Medicare.
But, you cannot explain stuff to people who also think they need to pay HR block to do their 1040EZ.
Hey, watch your filthy mouth.
California. We retired in the middle of 2017, so we'll be fully retired next year. One on social security. The other with a modest pension (not government, teacher, union, etc.). My estimates are comparing the current tax rates with the proposed tax plans without taking a deduction for state income or sales tax. As it is, that deduction would be less than $1,000.
If the Feds want to tax interest income inflow, ALL paid out Interest should be deductible as it’s NOT YOUR INCOME!
It’s someone else’s Income.
Simple really.
Tbats a lie.. My middle income taxes will increase per the Senate documents available. So, how about telling the truth as the documents show. Middle Amerca is paying for all the spending... and there is a lot of it, in the bill. Unless you have several children. Facts only, using source documents.
Isn't that where EITC "refunds" come from?
“Hey a$$hole.”
Hey D-Bag, you many want to wait until you see the final product and then you can whine about how your taxes go up.
You seem to be a sage and knowing things others don’t.
ASSUMing...
You appear quite premature in your melodrama.
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