Posted on 12/02/2017 1:37:52 AM PST by Kaslin
FINAL UPDATE - The votes are in, and the ayes have it. After a marathon evening of debating and considering amendments, the US Senate has approved the GOP's tax reform bill, which would simplify the tax code and cut taxes for the vast majority of American households, small businesses and corporations. Every Republican voted yes, except for Tennessee's Bob Corker. Democrats uniformly voted no. This is a big legislative victory for the GOP, which overcame a great deal of ferocious opposition -- much of it rooted in misinformation -- to pass the legislation. Up next, a conference committee with the House. But here's your summary for tonight:
FINAL: With Vice President Pence presiding, the US Senate approves a major tax cut & simplification package, 51-49. The bill will now head to a conference committee, where it will be merged with the House-passed bill.— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 2, 2017
UPDATE III - It's now looking official: Senate Republicans have the votes to pass tax reform. Arizona's Jeff Flake announced he's jumping on the bandwagon, and the finalized legislation includes a (paid for) amendment sought by Maine's Susan Collins that mirrors the House-passed SALT (state and local tax deduction) compromise. That strongly suggests that she'll be a "yes," too. Add it up, and that's 51, negating the need for Vice President Pence to break a potential tie. Depending on Bob Corker's mood in a few hours, McConnell might even get all 52 GOP votes. But all he really needs is 50-plus-one, and he says he's got 'em:
BREAKING: McConnell walks onto the floor and tells reporters: “We have the votes.”— Frank Thorp V (@frankthorp) December 1, 2017
ORIGINAL POST - The Republican-held House of Representatives did its part by passing a tax overhaul earlier this month, with zero Democrats supporting the effort. That bill cut taxes and boosted after-tax incomes, on average, across every income group in the country, and is projected by nonpartisan analysts to grow the US economy and create close to one million new full-time jobs. It would also lower the tax burden on job-creating small businesses (key small business advocacy groups have endorsed the Republican push), and make America's extremely high statutory and effective corporate tax rates far more competitive internationally. But we've seen this movie before. With the "resistance" in full demagogic throat, and Democrats bound in lockstep opposition, will the GOP's narrow Senate majority fumble the ball, as they did on Obamacare? We'll know soon enough, and tea leaves are mixed. A vote is expected later today. As we brace what's next, let's first note three developments from yesterday (see update) that may portend a successful outcome (see update II) for Mitch McConnell's conference:
(1) John McCain is a committed "yes." As the Senator who more or less single-handedly killed his party's "repeal and replace" efforts in July, having him clearly on board is a huge boon to Republican leadership. McCain's official statement touted the expected benefits of the bill -- acknowledging concerns about it, but ultimately determining that the legislation's upside was strong enough to secure his support:
After careful consideration, I have decided to support the Senate #TaxReform bill. Though not perfect, this bill will deliver much-needed reform to our tax code, grow the economy & provide long overdue tax relief for American families. https://t.co/BeWZAT0SjM pic.twitter.com/6qwYhmyE5p— John McCain (@SenJohnMcCain) November 30, 2017
He even specifically addressed and endorsed the proposal's provision that would repeal Obamacare's tent pole, the federal individual mandate tax: "I have also argued that health care reform, which is important both to the well-being of our citizens and to the vitality of our economy, should proceed by regular order. This bill does not change that. As a matter of principle, I’ve always supported individual liberty and believe the federal government should not penalize Americans who cannot afford to purchase expensive health insurance. By repealing the individual mandate, this bill would eliminate an onerous tax that especially harms those from low-income brackets. In my home state of Arizona, 80 percent of people who currently pay the individual mandate penalty earn less than $50,000 per year," he wrote.
(2) The nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation released its "dynamic scoring" analysis that the Senate bill would add less than $1 trillion to deficits over a decade, as opposed to the on-paper $1.4 trillion figure reached under "static scoring." The reason for this is that JCT anticipates the tax relief package would add nearly one percentage point to GDP growth over the next ten years, resulting in new revenues. Many supporters will argue that JCT underestimates the economic benefits of tax reform, but their report still offers two positive data points:
Jt Tax Cmte forecasts tax bill will increase GDP "by about 0.8 percent on average over the 10- year budget window. That increase in income would increase revenues, relative to the conventional estimate of a loss of $1,414 billion..by $458 billion over that period."— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) November 30, 2017
(3) For what it's worth:
Just spoke w/ Senate leadership source who I'd characterize as hopeful but never quite confident on the "repeal & replace" whip count over the summer. Sounds *much* more confident on tax reform today, despite some issues still being ironed out. #fwiw— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 30, 2017
That was the state of play late yesterday afternoon, with my well-placed source telling me McConnell and company were in a "really good place" in terms of corralling the requisite 50-plus-one votes. The source stopped short of guaranteeing passage at the time, but described potential holdouts as playing an active and "constructive" role in shaping the bill throughout the process, carried out through regular order. Susan Collins is said to be in a decent spot, and McConnell's "substitute amendment" (effectively the bill that was formally debated on the floor) was co-sponsored by...Lisa Murkowski. The three squeakiest wheels, I was told, were outgoing Tennessee Senators Bob Corker and Jeff Flake (who want a deficit-related "backstop" to reduce the tax cuts if economic growth falls short of targets), and Wisconsin's Ron Johnson. Johnson been characterized as a "hard no" in the media, but he's a pro-business, low-tax conservative at heart. I'm not so sure he's still in the 'nay' column, considering his evolving posture (this was from Wednesday evening-- and see update below):
We still have work to do, but I have been working with the administration and Senate leadership to make progress toward a better bill. - rj #taxreform— Senator Ron Johnson (@SenRonJohnson) November 29, 2017
The bigger challenges appear to stem from the other two Senators, who emerged at the center of some floor drama last evening, which bubbled to the surface in full view of reporters. (My source quoted above still sounds optimistic, but last evening was a setback). Relevant parties spent the overnight hours seeking to hammer out an accommodation to address Corker and Flake's deficit concerns after the Senate parliamentarian ruled that a proposed "trigger" mechanism compromise did not pass procedural muster under reconciliation rules. Might that eleventh-hour wrinkle cause the upper chamber GOP to once again face-plant? Stay tuned for the yeas and nays, which may again blow up in embarrassing fashion -- or could result in a big policy and political win for Republicans. In the meantime, the Left is shouting as loudly as possible to kill the bill. Some of their biggest claims are false. Equip yourself with the facts, and help educate others. The empirically-supportable truth is that the vast majority of taxpayers stand to benefit from tax reform. Nevertheless, every single Senate Democrat marched along to Chuck Schumer's beat and voted against even debating the proposal, some of whom defended their decision with nonsensical explanations like this:
I voted against the motion to proceed on the Republican #taxreform plan because I haven’t seen a final bill. I’m still trying to work w/ my R colleagues & @realdonaldtrump to find a bipartisan way forward.— Senator Joe Manchin (@Sen_JoeManchin) November 29, 2017
He couldn't vote to advance a debate over how the final bill would look because he...hadn't seen the final bill, or something. Got it. I'll leave you with a parting thought for Mssrs. Corker and Flake:
Think very carefully, Sens Flake & Corker.
If you jointly jeopardize tax reform, it would (a) risk defeating your own long-held policy goal, (b) reek of anti-Trump pettiness, & (c) reinforce idea that GOP should prioritize personal loyalty to Trump in primaries. Lose-lose-lose.— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 1, 2017
UPDATE - As I predicted above, Johnson is now a 'yes,' and despite last night's worrisome snag, my sources are telling me that things are again looking good. They stopped short of an airtight guarantee, but both said they expect a successful vote at some point today:
?? Sen. Ron Johnson tells Milwaukee radio WISN 1130 minutes ago he is a "yes" vote https://t.co/b0eJAzNIJL— J.D. Durkin (@jiveDurkey) December 1, 2017
"The question seems to be, how many Republican votes are they going to get? Is it going to be 50, 51, or 52? But, at this point...it would be really shocking if they didn't get to 50 which is what they need." - @guypbenson— America's Newsroom (@AmericaNewsroom) December 1, 2017
This is what I've heard within the last hour, having spoken w/ several plugged-in sources. Sounding like 49 locked-in 'yes' votes, w strong likelihood that at least 1 more comes into the fold. Leadership optimistic about a vote later today. https://t.co/59dtanMrcl— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 1, 2017
UPDATE II - It looks like this is happening (or maybe not?):
BREAKING: Second-ranking Senate Republican, John Cornyn of Texas, says GOP has the votes to pass sweeping tax overhaul.— The Associated Press (@AP) December 1, 2017
New: Sen. Bob Corker tells @siobhanehughes the bill will probably pass:
https://t.co/wspkmPMJ0H via @WSJ— Richard Rubin (@RichardRubinDC) December 1, 2017
Big potential problem for GOP leaders: Susan Collins disputes Cornyn’s claim that they have her support for the GOP tax bill. (They see her as their 50th and pivotal vote)
“I can’t imagine why Senator Cornyn is speaking for me,” she told me. “I speak for myself”— Laura Litvan (@LauraLitvan) December 1, 2017
But that is almost a humorous irony.
Besides that, we have to read it to know what's in it. I'm "upper poor". Does this help people who cut things close and can't afford to have taxes go up even a little, without impacting local economies negatively? So many questions, so few answers.
My takeaway from watching the US Senate go through this on CSPAN.....there aren't many US Senators who are even remotely likeable.
I said MAGA is dead to me.
My taxes are going up thousands of dollars.
That is not what Trump promised the middle class.
“Sorry you are SO UPSET AND SCREAMING AT ME IN CAPITOL LETTERS!”
No you aren’t! I’m not upset with you, I am pi$$ed at you for being childish. Good or bad, this tax “reduction” needs to happen or, we might as well tell President Trump to throw in the towel! I don’t give a rat’s a$$ whether this bill is helpful to me personally or not. It may be a lousy first step, but it IS a first step. We are where we are because a lot of stupid voters have been putting their own selfish interests ahead of the bigger interests of the country as a whole. We have a bucket of cocks in both the House and the Senate, and if we let them be taken over by the RATs one more time, this country will be gone forever. It’s just that effing simple. So take your chicken little BS and sell it somewhere else. We need this “win” in order to live to fight on, because the RATs are dead serious about Communizing this Country if they get one more shot! Go get yourself a bowl of chicken soup!
“Sorry you are SO UPSET AND SCREAMING AT ME IN CAPITOL LETTERS!”
No you aren’t! I’m not upset with you, I am pi$$ed at you for being childish. Good or bad, this tax “reduction” needs to happen or, we might as well tell President Trump to throw in the towel! I don’t give a rat’s a$$ whether this bill is helpful to me personally or not. It may be a lousy first step, but it IS a first step. We are where we are because a lot of stupid voters have been putting their own selfish interests ahead of the bigger interests of the country as a whole. We have a bucket of cocks in both the House and the Senate, and if we let them be taken over by the RATs one more time, this country will be gone forever. It’s just that effing simple. So take your chicken little BS and sell it somewhere else. We need this “win” in order to live to fight on, because the RATs are dead serious about Communizing this Country if they get one more shot! Go get yourself a bowl of chicken soup!
And reconcile they shall. Some of the bothersome specifics will be weeded out as part of the compromise, others shall be kept, as a long-term irritant, but overall, this is as much of a stick in the eye to the Democrats as the Obamacare monstrosity was to the Republicans at the time.
One big difference. This legislative package stands to vastly improve the economic status of the nation, leading to GROWING support for the party that introduced it and almost single-handedly, carried it through to its final fruition.
And now, on to the infrastructure and the thorny problem of the national debt. After which, we may revisit the Obamacare repeal, which continues to implode.
In which communist state do you live that you’re blaming Trump for not having the good sense to escape sooner?
"Childish"?
How in the heck do I deserve that moniker?
By objecting to my Federal taxes being jacked up by thousands of dollars?
Come on.
This isn't a "first" step for me and millions of others who are going to be getting the shaft. Once this horrible is signed by Trump - that's it. There will be no more "tweaks" or "improvements" down the line. They won't even want to contemplate it. Ryan and McConnell needed to jam this through before more people realized how much it screwed them.
I am sorry I can't do little raise the roof or fist pumps in celebration of getting soaked by Washington.
Let me ask you this: some Freepers have posted that the elimination of the deduction for medical expenses is going to cause ruin and immense suffering for their parents or for those who are caring for a sick family member.
Do you want them to pump their fists in happiness over this bill too?
not supposed to have faith in that, but in God. He has answers for any worry or problem. Should it end up you owe more, He has answer for how you will have at least enough if not more than enough.
I’m going thru similar and have learned (after kicking and screaming against it) to just be open to adjusting to God’s way, not my own :) You get joy that way other wise you get to be miserable about not getting your own way.
So we have some of the highest corporate taxes in the world.
As a result, most corporations who can do it have fled the country or moved assests overseas.
Estimates are of trillions of dollars parked overseas because of our stupid corporate tax policy.
So, we change that, tens of millions of people benefit in this country, including nearly all who have retirement funds or any other investment in the market.
But you say this is a tax on the middle class?
Who do you think owns those corporations? Most are owned by the middle class, through retirement funds and 401Ks and the like.
Yes I know, and they will be.
Excellent!
But bargaining for a permanent tax increase in the hopes that the stock prices go higher ad infinitum is a fools wager.
The Moment Gary Cohn Realized His Entire Economic Policy Is A Disaster
The left is crapping its pants. They have ordered the news media to act. Last night they were trying to instill fear that the bill would make financial aid taxable income, complete with shots of the signs for about 10 college financial aid offices.
This will not stop. The usual jerks are going around saying “tax cuts for the rich” and “will cost the middle class money”.
Watch the jump in the stock market Monday morning, for an update on what the business community thinks about the bill.
But bargaining for a permanent tax increase in the hopes that the stock prices go higher ad infinitum is a fools wager.
I believe the corporate tax reduction is permanent.
Well, this is sausage making at it’s best...wurst? After the failure to repeal obama care I think the Republicans passing a tax reform bill is really good news. I have no doubt that it’s about as flawed as humanly possible. However, currently our tax laws are 70,000 pages and I am unable to do my own taxes. I want to see fewer deductions and exemptions with just a lower tax rate. Allowing corporations to repatriot money is great idea and I have no doubt that this bill will promote this. It is my hope that this bill will promote jobs and growth in the US. If I personally end up paying a bit more in taxes due to lost deductions and exemptions that is acceptable...if I am able to make up for it by investment growth and seeing the US economy benefit.
Oh, I am sure it will.
Let me ask you this:
Was Donald Trump correct, or wrong, when he said back in 2016 regarding stocks: "We are in a big, fat, ugly bubble!"
https://www.cnbc.com/2016/08/09/donald-trump-on-the-stock-market-its-all-a-big-bubble.html
Is Trump wrong now regarding the stock market?
I watched some of it last evening and they sure were trying their scare tactics.
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