Posted on 12/02/2017 1:37:52 AM PST by Kaslin
FINAL UPDATE - The votes are in, and the ayes have it. After a marathon evening of debating and considering amendments, the US Senate has approved the GOP's tax reform bill, which would simplify the tax code and cut taxes for the vast majority of American households, small businesses and corporations. Every Republican voted yes, except for Tennessee's Bob Corker. Democrats uniformly voted no. This is a big legislative victory for the GOP, which overcame a great deal of ferocious opposition -- much of it rooted in misinformation -- to pass the legislation. Up next, a conference committee with the House. But here's your summary for tonight:
FINAL: With Vice President Pence presiding, the US Senate approves a major tax cut & simplification package, 51-49. The bill will now head to a conference committee, where it will be merged with the House-passed bill.— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 2, 2017
UPDATE III - It's now looking official: Senate Republicans have the votes to pass tax reform. Arizona's Jeff Flake announced he's jumping on the bandwagon, and the finalized legislation includes a (paid for) amendment sought by Maine's Susan Collins that mirrors the House-passed SALT (state and local tax deduction) compromise. That strongly suggests that she'll be a "yes," too. Add it up, and that's 51, negating the need for Vice President Pence to break a potential tie. Depending on Bob Corker's mood in a few hours, McConnell might even get all 52 GOP votes. But all he really needs is 50-plus-one, and he says he's got 'em:
BREAKING: McConnell walks onto the floor and tells reporters: “We have the votes.”— Frank Thorp V (@frankthorp) December 1, 2017
ORIGINAL POST - The Republican-held House of Representatives did its part by passing a tax overhaul earlier this month, with zero Democrats supporting the effort. That bill cut taxes and boosted after-tax incomes, on average, across every income group in the country, and is projected by nonpartisan analysts to grow the US economy and create close to one million new full-time jobs. It would also lower the tax burden on job-creating small businesses (key small business advocacy groups have endorsed the Republican push), and make America's extremely high statutory and effective corporate tax rates far more competitive internationally. But we've seen this movie before. With the "resistance" in full demagogic throat, and Democrats bound in lockstep opposition, will the GOP's narrow Senate majority fumble the ball, as they did on Obamacare? We'll know soon enough, and tea leaves are mixed. A vote is expected later today. As we brace what's next, let's first note three developments from yesterday (see update) that may portend a successful outcome (see update II) for Mitch McConnell's conference:
(1) John McCain is a committed "yes." As the Senator who more or less single-handedly killed his party's "repeal and replace" efforts in July, having him clearly on board is a huge boon to Republican leadership. McCain's official statement touted the expected benefits of the bill -- acknowledging concerns about it, but ultimately determining that the legislation's upside was strong enough to secure his support:
After careful consideration, I have decided to support the Senate #TaxReform bill. Though not perfect, this bill will deliver much-needed reform to our tax code, grow the economy & provide long overdue tax relief for American families. https://t.co/BeWZAT0SjM pic.twitter.com/6qwYhmyE5p— John McCain (@SenJohnMcCain) November 30, 2017
He even specifically addressed and endorsed the proposal's provision that would repeal Obamacare's tent pole, the federal individual mandate tax: "I have also argued that health care reform, which is important both to the well-being of our citizens and to the vitality of our economy, should proceed by regular order. This bill does not change that. As a matter of principle, I’ve always supported individual liberty and believe the federal government should not penalize Americans who cannot afford to purchase expensive health insurance. By repealing the individual mandate, this bill would eliminate an onerous tax that especially harms those from low-income brackets. In my home state of Arizona, 80 percent of people who currently pay the individual mandate penalty earn less than $50,000 per year," he wrote.
(2) The nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation released its "dynamic scoring" analysis that the Senate bill would add less than $1 trillion to deficits over a decade, as opposed to the on-paper $1.4 trillion figure reached under "static scoring." The reason for this is that JCT anticipates the tax relief package would add nearly one percentage point to GDP growth over the next ten years, resulting in new revenues. Many supporters will argue that JCT underestimates the economic benefits of tax reform, but their report still offers two positive data points:
Jt Tax Cmte forecasts tax bill will increase GDP "by about 0.8 percent on average over the 10- year budget window. That increase in income would increase revenues, relative to the conventional estimate of a loss of $1,414 billion..by $458 billion over that period."— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) November 30, 2017
(3) For what it's worth:
Just spoke w/ Senate leadership source who I'd characterize as hopeful but never quite confident on the "repeal & replace" whip count over the summer. Sounds *much* more confident on tax reform today, despite some issues still being ironed out. #fwiw— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 30, 2017
That was the state of play late yesterday afternoon, with my well-placed source telling me McConnell and company were in a "really good place" in terms of corralling the requisite 50-plus-one votes. The source stopped short of guaranteeing passage at the time, but described potential holdouts as playing an active and "constructive" role in shaping the bill throughout the process, carried out through regular order. Susan Collins is said to be in a decent spot, and McConnell's "substitute amendment" (effectively the bill that was formally debated on the floor) was co-sponsored by...Lisa Murkowski. The three squeakiest wheels, I was told, were outgoing Tennessee Senators Bob Corker and Jeff Flake (who want a deficit-related "backstop" to reduce the tax cuts if economic growth falls short of targets), and Wisconsin's Ron Johnson. Johnson been characterized as a "hard no" in the media, but he's a pro-business, low-tax conservative at heart. I'm not so sure he's still in the 'nay' column, considering his evolving posture (this was from Wednesday evening-- and see update below):
We still have work to do, but I have been working with the administration and Senate leadership to make progress toward a better bill. - rj #taxreform— Senator Ron Johnson (@SenRonJohnson) November 29, 2017
The bigger challenges appear to stem from the other two Senators, who emerged at the center of some floor drama last evening, which bubbled to the surface in full view of reporters. (My source quoted above still sounds optimistic, but last evening was a setback). Relevant parties spent the overnight hours seeking to hammer out an accommodation to address Corker and Flake's deficit concerns after the Senate parliamentarian ruled that a proposed "trigger" mechanism compromise did not pass procedural muster under reconciliation rules. Might that eleventh-hour wrinkle cause the upper chamber GOP to once again face-plant? Stay tuned for the yeas and nays, which may again blow up in embarrassing fashion -- or could result in a big policy and political win for Republicans. In the meantime, the Left is shouting as loudly as possible to kill the bill. Some of their biggest claims are false. Equip yourself with the facts, and help educate others. The empirically-supportable truth is that the vast majority of taxpayers stand to benefit from tax reform. Nevertheless, every single Senate Democrat marched along to Chuck Schumer's beat and voted against even debating the proposal, some of whom defended their decision with nonsensical explanations like this:
I voted against the motion to proceed on the Republican #taxreform plan because I haven’t seen a final bill. I’m still trying to work w/ my R colleagues & @realdonaldtrump to find a bipartisan way forward.— Senator Joe Manchin (@Sen_JoeManchin) November 29, 2017
He couldn't vote to advance a debate over how the final bill would look because he...hadn't seen the final bill, or something. Got it. I'll leave you with a parting thought for Mssrs. Corker and Flake:
Think very carefully, Sens Flake & Corker.
If you jointly jeopardize tax reform, it would (a) risk defeating your own long-held policy goal, (b) reek of anti-Trump pettiness, & (c) reinforce idea that GOP should prioritize personal loyalty to Trump in primaries. Lose-lose-lose.— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 1, 2017
UPDATE - As I predicted above, Johnson is now a 'yes,' and despite last night's worrisome snag, my sources are telling me that things are again looking good. They stopped short of an airtight guarantee, but both said they expect a successful vote at some point today:
?? Sen. Ron Johnson tells Milwaukee radio WISN 1130 minutes ago he is a "yes" vote https://t.co/b0eJAzNIJL— J.D. Durkin (@jiveDurkey) December 1, 2017
"The question seems to be, how many Republican votes are they going to get? Is it going to be 50, 51, or 52? But, at this point...it would be really shocking if they didn't get to 50 which is what they need." - @guypbenson— America's Newsroom (@AmericaNewsroom) December 1, 2017
This is what I've heard within the last hour, having spoken w/ several plugged-in sources. Sounding like 49 locked-in 'yes' votes, w strong likelihood that at least 1 more comes into the fold. Leadership optimistic about a vote later today. https://t.co/59dtanMrcl— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 1, 2017
UPDATE II - It looks like this is happening (or maybe not?):
BREAKING: Second-ranking Senate Republican, John Cornyn of Texas, says GOP has the votes to pass sweeping tax overhaul.— The Associated Press (@AP) December 1, 2017
New: Sen. Bob Corker tells @siobhanehughes the bill will probably pass:
https://t.co/wspkmPMJ0H via @WSJ— Richard Rubin (@RichardRubinDC) December 1, 2017
Big potential problem for GOP leaders: Susan Collins disputes Cornyn’s claim that they have her support for the GOP tax bill. (They see her as their 50th and pivotal vote)
“I can’t imagine why Senator Cornyn is speaking for me,” she told me. “I speak for myself”— Laura Litvan (@LauraLitvan) December 1, 2017
I believe in capitalism, not fixed capitalism that favors the big players in business.
“This tax bill isn’t what he promised. That is not my doing or my fault.”
And if you voted for Trump for Dictator, you’d undoubtedly be getting exactly what you voted for. But you didn’t cast your vote for the office of Fuehrer...you voted for a President is a system of distributed power. In fact, this president is extremely limited in power simply because he has exceedingly few political allies anywhere in the other two co-equal branches of government.
You have a Senate made up of elites who became Uber-wealthy in lifetime positions that skim and extort from Federal spending in order to line their own bank accounts. Trump has no power over these bodies...he cannot even get his immigration policies in place because of district court judges from those same socialist states that vote their taxes into the stratosphere in order to then deduct them on their Federal returns.
You lost in sausage-mill of government this time and you can be pissed off about it. That’s fair...I’d be pissed if I still had to live in one of the socialist states too. That is fair. But to blame the president you voted for for this situation because he doesn’t have the power that Hitler or Mussolini or Stalin had borders on delusion. If Trump had the power to implement his policy, you’d be happy today. But to be angry at him because he doesn’t have that power in our system of government is just howling at the fates.
Same with my parents, not in skilled care per se, but able to deduct home care and numerous medical bills. Why did they go after the elderly?
Taxation and capitalism are different
I agree that illegal immigration is a huge concern, and the same special interests control government policy and enforcement. The puppet masters want everyone divided and distracted from the fact that they own Washington lock, stock, and barrel. This tax bill is an exceptionally successful ploy—it’s got conservatives fighting among themselves and has solidified Democratic opposition in one fell swoop.
Just one or two more “successes” like this, and they will be able to place Trump’s deplorable populists into the dust bin of history —right beside their old TEA Party activists.
It’s not just illegal immigration that is a problem. It’s the amount of all immigration. It is killing the working class.
True, Trump is not a dictator - and he had to work with Congress.
But it isn't like Trump didn't have any input into this process. In fact, he said this:
Trump: 'I will be blaming Mnuchin and Cohn' for any trouble with tax reform
If Trump didn't want tax cuts to hit so hard on many middle class, he had these two Goldman Sachs veterans working with Congress.
But as I said before, my side lost this effort. Both the House and Senate bills passed. A bill will be on the President's desk shortly, and both bills are very similar.
I hope the economy does do well. But the balance sheets of most coroporations have been filled with cash for some time, and they have not used that to "reinvest." Instead, they sat on it or used much of it to buy back stock. Salaries of high ranking executives and their stock dividends seemed to be the areas of priority rather than wages. Even Gary Cohn was mystified when he asked a room of CEO's who would reinvest in their companies, and only a handful of hands went up.
I don't even think most Republicans on the hill are positive about what is going to happen. They have made a big gamble. And many of us will be paying for the bet.
Anyway, time to move on to the next issue. The tax bill debate is pretty much over.
I’m not sure I can agree with that statement. I have known many legal immigrants who have come here and became outstanding examples of the American Dream.
In my experience, the greatest barrier to economic growth has been excessive regulation and taxation leading to expatriation. Once the costs of compliance exceed the pain tolerance or profit, companies have little choice but to move—sometimes states, sometimes countries. Immigration reform won’t stop that, though it would help repair the labor market and the associated income stagnation.
Immigrant labor can only displace Americans when the government allows it. It would take one or two major prosecutions to stop virtually all illegal immigration, but it will not happen. Neither will significant H1x visa reform pass. Everyone knows that the entire immigration gamut (legal and illegal) is corrupt, but the big players want to keep it that way.
Come on. Legal immigration has been so abused. It is killing us. Get real.
>I’m not sure I can agree with that statement. I have known many legal immigrants who have come here and became outstanding examples of the American Dream.
Sure, and once there’s enough of them they discriminate against people outside their group reform their own insular culture that’s distinctly non-American. Ask people FR what happens when Indians get into manger slots in IT. They fire the whites and other Asians and only other Indians.
Since you use that term, subsidize, so frequently, we can assume you are filing in the 35% bracket, right? Or are those who are, subsidizing you?
We agree that both legal and illegal immigration are problems, so let’s attack the real culprits: unethical businessmen and politicians. I’m neither one.
How does the public regain control of this corrupt republic?
Not blaming Trump, he will just take whatever he can get, thanks to the politicians for Making America Screwed Again
still no reversal of "Affiordable (my A$$)healthcare" , just a Fake Tax reform bill
Good to know it wasn’t you. I don’t post there, but I certainly do read it. I am not thrilled with the tax bill, but it is a beginning. Hopefully it will be improved. (It can’t be very conservative, because McCain voted FOR it).
Interesting that your anti-Trump tax bill posts are being posted on DU.
What a badge of “honor”.
Not.
I guess this means all those .Com Silicon Valley Billionaires will be moving East to Nevada where there are no State Income Taxes.
With the passage of this Bill, the top Tax Rates for those living in CA will exceed 50%, (39.5% Federal plus 13.3% State).
Funny how the Governor Moonbeam just passed a Gas Tax hike of $.12 a Gallon and also raised the Car Registration Fees anywhere from $25 to $175 on top the already outrageous DMV Fees people are paying.
Taxes on Diesel Fuel even went up about 5% which I’m sure was great news for the Trucking Industry.
These new Taxes and Fees impact Low Income people the most yet I don’t hear the Democrats denouncing them, not one.
I admire your self-control. I read DU posts, the anger welling up in me like the teary eyes of Kathy Griffin, until I can’t resist creating an account, posting, and lasting maybe half a day before being banned.
Unbelieveable.
As your fellow American I am just trying to keep as much of my hard earned money and not give it to the governement - you know, a principle of conservatism and individualism - you aren't subsidizing my children. It is the obligation of the government to recognize and respect marriage and the family as institutions created by God in anyway they can - even by the tax code if so be.
Conservatives in blue states are being orphaned by the GOP for the sake of a win. They could of just slashed all the tax rates and lowered the corporate tax rate in a one page bill - but no, they can't keep it simple because they are the party of stupid.
The Senate bill drops the mandate for Obamacare—probably the best part of this package. The sad thing is real reform like a fair or flat tax was possible here and this is what the GOP serves up.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.