The following article from a Turkish newspaper seems to be a fairly balanced explanation of China's policy:
Why did the Romans build roads?
I propose Belt And Suspenders, because you can’t be too careful.
The Greater Eurasian Co-Prosperity Sphere
I read that article and basically think it’s DOA.
There are insurmountable obstacles to getting that thing built.
- $5 trillion dollars.
- Countries, regions and tribes that will never allow such a project to pass through their territory.
- No route(s) that have any basis in existing traffic. Even the interstates and railroads follow rivers, valleys and what not. No road from China to Europe, if it doesn’t cross Russia, could do so.
- The extortion and terrorism that would exist during construction and on an ongoing basis would make sections of that route untenable. It’s not like a sea lane where you can sink a ship. Pirates would just melt into the environment.
Hey, let them try, their $5,000,000,000,000 dollars.
I think Belt and Road was Ted Kennedy’s favorite drinking game.
I am not sure even the Chinese know exactly what “OBOR” will be.
Xi jinping has proven to everyone that China is done “reforming.” They will of course have a large private sector, and even the many massive state-run industries will face “the market” - but the CCP and Chinese Government will remain firmly in control of all policy.
As such, they will continue to produce a lot of stuff communists and central planners love - steel, cement, ships, trucks, etc... this needs to go somewhere, and China’s neighbors will get it cheap - with some strings attached, of course. that is OBOR.
They are going to need lots and lots of oil to run that infrastructure.
Hmmmm. . . Go around the west end of the Himalayas to Iran then on to the Persian Gulf.
Maybe with a 200 million man army?