Posted on 10/18/2017 10:41:29 AM PDT by COUNTrecount
Fox News thinks its pollster has revealed a dead heat between Judge Roy Moore and his Democrat opponent Doug Jones in Alabama.
The network suggests, after randomly polling just 801 people, that the firms Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company have revealed a problem for Republicans in the traditionally red state.
But here’s the real problem, as I’ve spelled out before…
These voodoo pollsters are outright partisans, and both of these firms use methodologies that trend towards whatever benefits the establishment. Here’s their data this time, which reveals not only the strange questions asked per group, but also the small sample size, the overeliance (and need for correction) on cell vs. landline users (i.e. traditionally younger vs. traditionally older voters).
Whether this is intentional or just a consequence of their bubble is up for some debate, but here’s how it works:
ANDERSON ROBBINS RESEARCH
This firm is headed by Christopher Anderson, a Democrat strategist who worked for John Kerry. Their job — their financial interest — lays with playing up Democrat hopes. Pollsters are often also consultants, and wouldn’t make money on the run up to the race if their candidate fears they have nothing to play for. The candidates can’t fundraise, the pollsters and their other consultant buddies can’t make money. See?
Indeed even when the “Republican” Shaw & Company collaborates with Anderson Robbins, their methodology has a statistical history of pulling left and overplaying Democrat chances.
They’ve been doing this with their regular Presidential approval rating polls too, as laid out here, where the author is correct in stating:
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
This poll is as big a joke as Hillary up 10 in PA and ahead in GA and SC.... its junk... anyone with even the most basic understanding of AL politics knows that a GREAT showing by a democrat is that they lose by less than 10 points.... Moore will easily take this, Duke never had a shot.
However if this kind of garbage poll gets democrats to spend 10s of millions of dollars on this race go for it... for ever dollar spent there is one less dollar they will have to spend on a race that truly is competitive.
Recall what we learned last year:
Polls are no longer intended to fairly assess public opinion, instead they are intended to influence public opinion.
This will be on the final exam.
True. I’m could not believe how many millions they poured into the Jon Ossoff special election campaign. Even if they had won, it was just one Congressional seat, it would not have tipped the balance of power.
We will see who is the fraud on Election night!
Polls just prior to the General Election in 2016, were said to reveal Hillary’s chances of winning were 9 to 1.
I remember that too. However, I knew someone who was in Pa., a family friend who worked in the Trump campaign and supposedly, when they got the polls, they started laughing because they had their own internal polls which was far different from Reuters. Well, someone here is not doing their job and lying.
Here’s a major problem for any pollster who undercounts independents. A huge number of Republicans have changed their registration in the last few years-to Independent.
The network suggests, after randomly polling just 801 people, that the firms Anderson Robbins Research and Shaw & Company have revealed a problem for Republicans in the traditionally red state.
Good one. LMAO at this joke poll. Can't wait for the next one.
It is a mistake to cite the Gallup National Party registration to determine if polling demographics in this poll are correct. What we need to see is the Party registration breakdown within the State.
This what I found.
It appears Republicans outnumber Dems 2-1
Yep, this is very misleading, and it’s intentional.
No way will I believe Moore is not going to win easily.
I seem to recall Larry Sabato, Fox's so-called polling expert, appearing numerous times before the election and anointing Madam Benghazi the winner.
At least he did have the courtesy to appear a few days after the election to down a big plate of crow.
Trump had election night from the day he announced, it was clear he was going to march right through the “blue wall” of the upper midwest to ANYONE who has actually spent time here....
Trump’s strategy was obvious, and clear.. the fact so many people where in denial about it shows you just how crazy many people are.
I flat out LAUGHED when I saw the poll showing Hillary up 8 or 10 in PA.... It was straight out of LALA LAND... Obama didn’t get that kind of margin in 2012, his wave election in 08 he got slighly over 10 points in PA... to think HILLARY was going to take the state by that kind of margin was ludicrous.
I loved election night watching the talking heads wringing their hands over MI and WI... ignoring PA... when it had been clear to me from the outset, PA was going to go Trump and of all the states in the blue wall that were going to flip, it would be by the biggest margin. It was obvious by 9pm, Hillary had lost PA... her margin out of Philly was too damned small to hold the state... so they kept flapping their lips about Hmmm she may lose Mi or WI... and meantime I watched the very predictable pattern of that Philly lead melting away as the rest of the stage came in... Anyone with an inkling should have been saying Hillary is in trouble in PA by 9pm... but they ignored it, it wasn’t until around 11pm ish they finally started to realize Hillary was losing PA.
After hours of wringing their hands over Mi and WI... they finally woke up to the obvious.... and PA as expected went Trump by the biggest margin of them all.
This poll is just the same thing... complete fabrication designed to influence the electorate not report the state of the race. Just push polling nonsense that is flat out laughable.
TX and AZ do have a demographics problem that if not dealt with will eventually turn them blue... Which is why Dems are all about illegals coming and staying at all costs....
I'm not sure where you got this, but the full poll report shows on the bottom of page 4 Political Identification D-37% R-47% I-16%.
However, the Alabama 2016 Presidential Election result was Trump 62% Clinton 34%, an R+28% spread.
-PJ
Another thing was the GOP in PA were a bunch of lazy jerks who didnt do everything to help Trump. Gosh, even back then these clowns were the enemy. Our family friend he even spoke with Kelly Ann Conway on the phone and she asked the office if they got the “correct polls which came directly from Bannon’s people. I tell ya what, when Trump won that night, it was like his wedding night all over again if you catch my drift.
I said it when it came out! It's a BS poll!
As far as Murdoch's network. No longer is it Rupert's network. It's his leftist sons' network and they've taken it into Faux Snooze territory!
Here they have averaged three polls:
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2017/senate/al/alabama_senate_special_election_moore_vs_jones-6271.html
And they get:
RCP Average 9/27 - 10/16 — — 46.7 42.3 Moore +4.4
FOX News 10/14 - 10/16 801 RV 3.5 42 42 Tie
JMC Analytics 9/30 - 10/1 500 LV 4.4 48 40 Moore +8
Opinion Savvy 9/27 - 9/28 590 LV 4.0 50 45 Moore +5
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