Posted on 09/07/2017 8:09:47 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Irma had a devastating impact on islands in the Caribbean.
Hurricane and Storm surge watches were issued Thursday morning for South Florida. The Florida Keys began evacuating visitors and residents, followed by flood zones in Miami and Miami Beach. Sarasota FL declared a local state of emergency Thursday morning.
Polk County FL Sheriff Grady Judd said Wednesday that law enforcement authorities would check the identities of people who turn up at shelters--and take to jail anyone found to have an active arrest warrant. “If you go to a shelter for Irma and you have a warrant, we’ll gladly escort you to the safe and secure shelter called the Polk County Jail... “If you have a warrant, turn yourself in to the jail — it’s a secure shelter.” Judd also posted that sex offenders and sex predators would not be admitted to the shelters. "We cannot and we will not have innocent children in a shelter with sexual offenders & predators. Period." Judd's statements unleashed a liberal firestorm via Twitter.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Melbourne, FL
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar Jacksonville, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Charleston, SC
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Wilmington, NC, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Morehead City, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Norfolk, VA
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Buoy Data NC/SC/GA
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
Thanks, shared it.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/2100Z 23.4N 80.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 24.1N 81.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 25.7N 82.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 28.3N 82.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 31.2N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/1800Z 35.5N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 13/1800Z 36.1N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED
Storm surge forecast for the Keys near Tampa.
Looks like everything from Siesta Key, through Longboat Key, up through Anna Maria Island is going to be completely under water.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/154304.shtml?inundation#contents
Hurricane Irma Live Thread III
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3584558/posts
[Howzit? Hope all is well.]
Yes, I recall that. McDonald was a terrific writer, I read many of his books. I lived in Clearwater for a few years before coming to Orlando. I love the Gulf. We had a 25ft sailboat, spent many happy weekends messing around out there.
On her current straight line track, she threads the needle. Actually just went to a place with cable to watch the turn on the boob tube, and they got all sports here. Oh well. It is Saturday. As she separates from the island only obstacle to strengthening is that reported sheer.
Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane sampling Irma indicate
that the hurricane has not recovered yet from its interaction
with Cuba. It is estimated that the maximum winds are 110 kt. Given
the excellent satellite presentation, the lower pressure just
reported by the NOAA plane, and the fact that the hurricane will
move over the warm waters of the Straits of Florida, some
intensification is anticipated during the next 24 hours. Irma is
expected to remain a very dangerous hurricane while it moves near or
over the Florida Keys and near or over the Florida Peninsula. After
48 hours, Irma will be moving farther inland and weakening.
Radar data indicate that Irma is moving toward the west-northwest
at about 8 kt. The turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is
about to begin since the hurricane is already at the western edge of
the subtropical ridge. The track guidance continues to be tightly
packed, and the bulk of the models take the hurricane over the
Florida Keys and near or over the Florida Peninsula. The NHC
forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, and given the
good agreement among models, the confidence in the track forecast is
high.
Thumbs high
We go to the Outer Banks with some frequency. It is beautiful, and I can see the appeal. We go to Nags Head, and then travel down to Hatteras and some of the little towns south (We love that little fudge place, and I order stuff for my wife every year as a Christmas gift).
But I honestly love the midwest and west. I love the biting cold of a blizzard, the 100F summer, and the spring and fall that is so wonderful that I can’t describe it. I love standing on a small hill and not seeing any lights for over twenty miles. I love the blanket of stars overhead, and the sound of wind blasting and scrubbing the fields. The smell of corn opening up with a storm coming in.
I enjoy my trips to the ocean, but I keep thinking “If I have to get out, where do I go?” The Alligator bridge is a long path over to a swamp. Where I am, (and where I suspect I will always live in a way), I can walk out the door in three directions and go for two hundred miles without a major barrier. There are very few real choke points.
However, our family out East freak out there. I also dated (for a while) a girl from Chicago. Took her to Western Nebraska, and she had a panic attack. She realized that we were at least 50 miles from a hospital, and thought that it would take hours if something happened. I kept telling her that I could get her to Chadron or Scottsbluff faster than a bad ambulance ride in Chicago, and everyone out here knows to treat most common trauma (I was viewed as weak by my cousins because a doctor set my broken bones).
“if the pressure is dropping the winds are increasing,thats how it works.”
Usually but not always.
There won’t be anything to rent for a couple years.
We had reservations on Anna Maria Island for a couple weeks in Nov.
Now the storm surge forecast looks like there won’t be an Anna Maria Island. Or not much left.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/154304.shtml?inundation#contents
I have all of JDM’s stuff. Whenever we go to Panama City Beach on Redneck Riviera, I re-read two or three of them. We were just there last week.
“I suspect they sense something has changed in the ‘air’”
Every once in a while my dog will wake me up verrry early in the a.m. to go outside. Sure enough, within a 1/2 hr it will start raining.
Either she senses it or is watching the Weather Channel while I’m sleeping!
That’s because no one eats like a farm boy. My Grandpa ate 4,000 calories at day and worked it off by evening. Then had a huge supper.
There are some ugly ones there.
My in-laws used to have a place there on Siesta Key.
We had some wonderful vacations there. Had to sell the place when they passed. Couldn’t afford it.
Siesta Key is in a bad way according to the storm surge map forecast.
I don't agree.. at all. If the CENTER is over water, it can strengthen. Especially, if the eye is over very warm water. Look at Harvey. Even though at least 40% of the storm was over land, when the eye moved back into the Gulf, it started getting stronger.
What WILL keep it from getting SUPER strong is, the flattening over the upper level winds now starting to impact the NW side of the storm. To get REALLY strong, all parts of the cyclone need to be functioning perfectly. The upper chimney is now getting clogged.
I think Irma will strengthen in the next 24 hours... probably back to Cat 4. But, that's about the limit.
Yes... definitely starting to see the impact of the High Pressure ridge in the upper levels now. Forward motion is also slowing... the turn is coming.
Remains to be seen just how sharp, but... I think it could be pretty quick. We MIGHT just see a “best case” scenario here.. where, Irma hits the Keys hard, but goes inland far south of Naples. That’s where the FEWEST people live. And, it would give the least time for re-development. That’s what I’m pulling for..... but, will need significant heading change to get there.
Had the same thought. The coloration makes it look like it is from a sci-fi show.
Had the same thought. The coloration makes it look like it is from a sci-fi show.
I’d say, always... but, sometimes with a time delay.
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